Is the Grinch Coming for your Portfolio?

—risk management out the window —economic slowdown and forecasts (NKE, FDX) —rate cut projections appear ridiculous —two sided trading returns —options markets starting to price risk SPX Expected Move -- --last week -- 55.44 (5-day expected move) --next week-- 57.87 (4-day expected move)

Irrational FOMC Exuberance

-Rate cut mania -capital rotations are epic -financials rip in lower rates? -PM/hedge panic -SKEW record, VVIX makes it interesting -high impact moves in a low vix continue SPX Expected Move -- --last week -- 64.66 (5-day expected move) --next week-- 55.44 (5-day expected move)

A Powell Keg of Market Risk to the Upside!

Jerome Powell's words fuel a market rally! In this evening's video, Don Kaufman explains the latest actions taken by the FOMC and the widespread market surge triggered by Jerome Powell's reinforced dovish stance on Federal Reserve policy.

Stuck in the Middle with SPU

-Low VIX but high volatility? -isn't good jobs bad ? -Risky Business and the FED -Triple witching and the /ES roll -Dollar and bonds have reversed -C, GOOGL, LULU SPX Expected Move - -last week - 57.36 (5-day expected move) -next week - 64.66 (5-day expected move)

Santa Claus Rally Cancelled?

Market Volatility and Santa Claus Rally: There's emerging volatility in the stock market, raising questions about whether the typical Santa Claus rally will happen. The S&P 500 and NASDAQ are experiencing fluctuations, but these are within the expected daily move, suggesting the markets haven't reached an extreme volatility state. Analysis of Tech Stocks and NASDAQ:…

A Divergence in the Magnificent 7 Force?

- Mag 7 leadership role diminished this week - Financials continue to hold SP500 together - FED Fund Futures are ludicrous - positioning in a one-sided market (JPM, BA, IBM) - heavy skew, huge volatility contango - markets don't trust the future? SPX Expected Move - -last week - 46.29 (5-day expected move) -next week…

Is an Economic Slowdown Bullish for Markets?

The Magnificent 7 make up all of the S&P 500 gains in 2023. That is really incredible when you think about it. Can those 7 stocks sustain the entire market in an economic slowdown? Because right now an economic slowdown is being predicated. When you look at the Fed Futures Watch Tool rate cuts are…

Markets in the Black with the Economy in the Red?

-vol has been crushed, possibly too far... -one last hurrah in bonds? -does anything but the Magnificent 7 matter? -will markets hold it together till year-end? SPX Expected Move -- -last week - 48.53 (3 1/2-day expected move) -next week - 46.29 (5-day expected move)

Is a Severe Recession Imminent?

-CPI and the 2 minute week -Oil -Bonds -WMT, CSCO PANW, BABA, BIDU -VIX is a broken metric -SKEW high flyin’ SPX Expected Move - -last week - 63.82 (5-day expected move) -next week - 48.54 (3 1/2-day expected move)

Softer Data and a Stronger Market?

- Don Kaufman of TheoTrade discusses market conditions on November 15, 2023, noting the S&P 500's mild uptrend despite mixed economic data, with retail sales softer and Producer Price Index (PPI) in line with expectations. - Kaufman highlights unusual activity in the bond market, with high trading volume and a significant pullback from previous gains.…

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