Massive Volatility In Fed Expectations

Massive Volatility - Stocks Reverse Course On Rate Cut Hopes With expectations of Massive Volatility, the Fed funds futures market moved towards expecting 2 rate cuts in July. This happened on Thursday which pushed the market higher. Especially and even after Netflix and CSX’s poor earnings reports. In this article, I will review Microsoft and…

Housing Permits Get a Big Dip

Housing Permits - Solid MBA Applications Before getting into Housing Permits let's review the MBA Applications. MBA applications and NAHB housing market index are on an island where the results are great. Off that island we have home price growth falling, weak permits, and new home sales that have peaked. Most housing data will show…

Netflix & CSX Crater On Earnings Misses

Netflix - Stocks Fall On Weak Earnings Netflix and CSX fell on the weak earnings statements. Let that be a lesson to only follow aggregate earnings data not the headlines. There will obviously be bad quarters throughout this earnings season as always. But only the aggregate results will tell you how the quarter was. Wednesday…

Beige Book - Fed Shows Rate Cuts Incoming

Beige Book - Redbook Sales Growth Falls Before getting into the Fed's Beige Book let's review Redbook Sales. In the week of July 13th, Redbook sales growth fell sharply from 6.2% to 4.7%. Keep in mind, this is yearly growth, so the strong growth in the previous week had nothing to do with this weakness.…

Citigroup - Wells Fargo - JP Morgan All Beat Earnings Estimates

Citigroup - Wells Fargo - JP Morgan - Stocks Fall Slightly As Trump Gives Update On Trade Talks Citigroup - Wells Fargo - JP Morgan - All beat estimates. The stock market fell on Tuesday even though the retail sales report was great. It may have fallen because stocks are very overbought. Or because President…

Great Retail Sales Report Bolstered By Real Wage Gains

Great Retail Sales Report - Strong Real Wage Growth June showed us a Great Retail Sales Report and Real Wage Gains. As I will get to later in this article, retail sales growth was solid in June. We must start with why it was strong. As you can see in the chart below, real wage…

Earnings Season - Stocks Overbought

Earnings Season - Small Rally As Earnings Season Starts The stock market rallied slightly on Monday as this week starts earnings season unofficially. Technically, 24 firms have already reported results. But the main swath of earnings season is the in next 3 weeks. On Monday, S&P 500 was up 2 basis points which was a…

July Empire Fed Index Bounce Back

July Empire Fed Index - Big Rebound There was a major bounce back in the July Empire Fed Index. So, calling for a recession based on some sentiment reports from June was always a dubious proposition. Trade hurt sentiment. In some surveys, the early June trade spat between America and Mexico had a negative impact…

Another New Record High: S&P 500 Up 20.22% In 2019

Another New Record High - Big Friday Rally Caps Off Solid Week The stock market increased again with on Friday with Another New Record High as this spectacular year continued. S&P 500 was up 0.46%, Nasdaq was up 0.59%, and Russell 2000 was up 0.78%. S&P 500 is finally exiting the triple top area it…

Fed Ignores Inflation & Labor Market

Fed Ignores Inflation - Mixed June PPI Report It's an interesting market mix as Fed Ignores Inflation and the Labor Market Reports. Headline PPI inflation was 0.1% monthly. It met estimates and was the same as May. On a yearly basis, it was 1.7% which met estimates and fell from 1.8%. Inflation readings that include…

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