U.S. Economy Surprising To The Upside?

Stocks Mostly Flat On Thursday S&P 500 opened up, increased in the morning, and fell throughout the afternoon on Thursday. It closed the day almost exactly where it started. We need to wait another day for the S&P 500 to hit a new record high. It will likely happen soon. Stocks haven’t reacted much to…

Great Housing Starts & Permits: No Recession Soon

No 2019 Recession Because Of Housing Earlier this summer, many investors predicted real residential investment growth would finally get out of the doghouse it has been in for 6 quarters. And that it would also have a positive impact on Q3 GDP growth. Based on early indications from the Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast, it looked…

Stocks End Flat After Fed Cuts Rates

Wild Action After Fed Statement: Stocks End Flat S&P 500 was down slightly before the Fed meeting. There wasn’t much of a reaction to the statement. Then Powell spoke which created volatility. S&P 500 bottomed at 2,981. Then it spiked in the last hour trading. It increased 0.85% to close the day up 3 basis…

Fed Cuts Rates For The 2nd Time In 2019

Fed Cuts Rates 25 Basis Points & Powell Gives No Signal For More Cuts The Fed cut rates once on Wednesday which is exactly what the market expected. Initially, there was no stock market reaction to the decision and statement. Then stocks sold off after Powell stated there wasn’t necessarily a plan to further cut…

Fund Managers Are Very Greedy

Slight Increase In Stocks As Investors Await Fed Meeting Thanks to the 0.25% rally in the final 40 minutes of Tuesday’s trading session, the S&P 500 closed up 0.26%. This put it about 20 points away from its record high. Nasdaq was up 0.4% and the Russell 2000 was down 0.4%. VIX fell 0.23 to…

Manufacturing Recession Continues

Another Solid Redbook Retail Sales Report Redbook retail sales report showed yearly growth fell 1 point from 6.4% to 5.4% in the week of September 14th. This is still a solid reading. Growth decline if the August retail would have been more concerning if the sales report had come in weak. Since it was very…

Brent Oil Spikes The Most Ever After Attack On Saudi Oil Fields

Biggest Spike In Oil Prices Ever There was a massive increase in oil prices on Monday because of a coordinated attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil production. Specifically, the oil processing facility in Abqaiq and the nearby Khurais oil field were attacked. That shutdown 5.7 million barrels of production per day which is 50% of Saudi…

Cass Freight Index Shows Continued Economic Weakness

Disappointing Empire Fed Manufacturing Report General business conditions index in the September Empire Fed manufacturing report fell modestly. But the expectations index fell significantly, so I’ll call this a disappointing report. Empire Fed index is just one of the 5 regional Fed reports, but it gains prominence because it’s the first one.  It is out…

Strong Retail Sales Despite Weak Consumer Sentiment

Slight Increase in Consumer Confidence The University of Michigan consumer confidence survey in August was terrible. This led some investors to get scared because it seemed like the consumer was in trouble. However, it’s notable that this survey is correlated with the stock market. Volatility in stocks definitely played a role in this decline. Technically,…

Treasuries Selloff Continues

Treasuries Selloff Again Action in the bond market has been absurd this week. As you can see from the chart below, the long bond ETF TLT ended its 100 day streak of being above its 50 day moving average. That was its longest streak in history. The selloff that I had been waiting for occurred…

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