Semiconductors Hurt by Trade War

Semiconductors - Trade War Worries Continue Semiconductors -The tech sector underperformed on Monday because of the fallout from the Commerce Department putting Huawei on its entity list. That prevents Huawei from buying American made parts and components. Blacklisting Huawei will have such a severe impact on American firms.  Therefore, the government is trying to scale this…

U.S. Economy Inching Closer To A Recession?

U.S. Economy - What Caused The Consumer’s Uncertainty? U.S. Economy and Consumer Uncertainty reach an impasse. Preliminary May consumer sentiment reading and the expectations index hit a 15 year high. Both will likely come down when the final reading is released because of the newly implemented tariffs. The chart below reviews why consumer spending fell earlier…

Trade Fears - Standoffish China Sends Stocks Lower

Trade Fears - Stocks Decline Friday Trade Fears - The stock market had no business increasing on Friday since the latest news on trade is China isn’t ready to negotiate with America. That’s not a big surprise because they wanted to change what was already agreed upon and Trump held firm. Stalled trade talks are…

Leading Indicators Aren’t Optimistic

Leading Indicators - ECRI Leading Growth Falls Leading Indicators - This Friday was the one time per month we get an update on both the ECRI leading index and the Conference Board leading index. To be clear, the ECRI leading index is weekly and the Conference Board index comes out with data on the prior…

Jobless Claims Decrease As Stocks Rally Again

Jobless Claims Decrease - Another Rally On Thursday Jobless Claims Decrease - This has been a solid 3 day run for stocks as the S&P 500 is up 2.65% since the low on Monday afternoon. Because the correction wasn’t large to begin with, the market is close to recovering its losses. I don’t think the stock market…

Housing Market Index Strong & Industrial Production Weak

Housing Market Index - MBA Mortgage Applications Housing Market Index - In the week of May 10th, the MBA applications index fell 0.6% from last week after increasing 2.7%. The purchase applications index fell 1% after increasing 4%. Yearly growth was 7.7%.  In April, purchase applications for newly built homes were up 15.6% annually. Recent…

Weak Economic Reports Don’t Stop The Market From Rallying

Weak Economic Reports - Another Rally On Wednesday Weak Economic Reports - S&P 500 increased 0.58% on Wednesday which was surprising to me because retail sales and industrial production missed estimates. Economic growth could end up being below 2% in Q2. That doesn’t correlate with a rising stock market.  Headlines state the stock market rallied…

Cass Freight Index Craters: Economic Slowdown Worsens

Cass Freight Index - Q1 Household Debt Report: Debt Totals Before getting into the Cass Freight Index, let's review the NY Fed’s household debt and credit report. It gives us details on delinquency rates, nominal debt, and the credit scores of debt holders. Also, it gives us color on strength of the consumer. In the…

Chinese Economic Growth Slows Sharply In April

Chinese Economic Growth - And The Recovery Rally On Tuesday Chinese Economic Growth - There wasn’t any major trade news on Tuesday, which some might see as a positive. President Trump tweeted about trade, but he just reiterated previous points. I think the market rallied because it was oversold, not because of his tweets.  As…

Capitulation - Stock Market Reached On Monday

Capitulation Moment? Capitulation - Whenever the market corrects or falls into a bear market, investors are always trying to spot the bottom to make a quick profit. The American stock market has had the best real returns out of any country’s stock market in the past 100 years.  It’s not a given that stocks will…

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