First Half Of 2018 To See Weak Economic Growth
Stocks Decline Over Trade War Fears The Dow had the worst day of the major indexes as it fell 1%. It underperformed because Boeing fell 2.5%. Boeing is a high priced stock which matters in the price weighted Dow. The S&P 500 was down 0.57% as it makes its way back to the mid point…
Soft PPI & Retail Sales Reports
PPI Inflation Index Echoes Recent Trend The recent data for February shows inflation isn’t reaching the same rate it was at in January. It appears analysts got too excited about the reports to start the year. Everyone got on the inflation bandwagon because of low unemployment and the length of this business cycle, but those…
Could Tariffs On China Hurt Stocks?
The Market Is Still Range Bound Stocks had a poor day on Tuesday as the S&P 500 fell 0.64% and the Nasdaq fell 1.02%. The Nasdaq was hurt by Qualcomm which was down 5% because the merger with Broadcom was struck down by President Trump on Monday night. I still think the market is stuck in its range. At…
Mild CPI Report Changes The Markets’ Tone
Inflation Data Shows Modest Price Increases After a few months of acceleration in inflation, the CPI and PCE reports have become the most important economic reports to the market. Investors and economists expect a big pick up in inflation this year. I have switched from being bullish on inflation to being bearish on inflation based…
Stocks Fall After Revenue Beats Expectations
Beat Expectations, Stock Falls Anyway In the Q2 2017 earnings season, the market was acting weirdly. Stocks were falling when firms were beating sales expectation. My guess was that stocks priced in great results, so investors weren’t enamored after results were beat. In the Q1 2018 earnings season we’re seeing the same phenomena occur. As…
Most Jobs Added Since At Least 2000
Labor Force Participation Rate Even though I’ve already done two articles on Friday’s labor report, there’s still more to unpack. The ADP report showed 235,000 jobs added. For an apples to apples comparison with the BLS report, you look at the private payrolls. Month over month, the private payrolls were up 287,000. While both will be revised, as…
Stocks Love Lack Of Wage Growth
Inflation Feared Less There was so much information in the February labor report, it needs a few articles to get through each data point and explain what each indicator means. The stock market rallied because there was jobs growth, but not much wage growth. In the previous few years of this expansion, the market wanted…
313,000 Jobs Added In An A+ Labor Report
Stocks Rally The jobs report was perfect as it sent stocks moving much higher. The Dow was up 441 points. The S&P 500 was up 1.74% and the Nasdaq was up 1.79% to a record high. The VIX fell 11.49% to 14.64. Oil was up 3.19% to $62.12 because of the optimism created by the…
Stocks Rally Despite Tariff Announcement
Headlines Change As Tariffs Aren’t So Bad Last week some feared a trade war, a recession, and a bear market. This week all of that has been forgotten as the S&P 500 was up 0.45% on Thursday which was the day of the tariff announcement. President Trump announced that a 25% tariff on steel and…
Consumer Confidence Soaring But Spending Growth Is Modest
Consumer Confidence Irrelevant Many bearish investors have used the heightened consumer confidence reports to justify their negativity. They want to fade the optimism because when euphoria occurs, it’s usually followed by despair. I certainly agree with this mindset when it comes to the consumer’s opinion on the stock market over the next year. We saw…
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