Investors Ignore The $40 Billion In Q4 Write-Offs
Almost Every Streak In The Book Broken On Thursday, stocks went from a gain to a loss as some investors wondered if the market would finally fall. Alas, the market righted the ship and it closed about flat. The biggest down days we’ve seen are when the market gives back some of its gains, but…
Steve Mnuchin Sends Dollar To A 37 Month Low
Dollar Is Crashing? Manufacturing is being helped by the declining dollar. As you can see from the chart below, the dollar has been in a one way path downwards. The DXY hit a 37 month low as it’s down against every major currency in the past year. The daily sentiment index for the dollar is…
Euphoria Continues As Investors Beg For A Correction
Stock Market Still Overheated There have been many odd records this year which you normally don’t hear about. That’s what happens when the S&P 500 hits a new record almost every day. I’m not exaggerating with that statement. As you can see from the chart below, the S&P 500 hit a new high in 12…
Bank Of America Capitulates By Raising Its Year End S&P 500 Price Target
S&P 500 Has A Great Year In 3 Weeks The stock market has already had a good performance for the year with about 3 weeks in the books. The 6.22% return in the S&P 500 this year means the market has already pushed passed some full year projections. The euphoria is real as the market not…
Speculative Exposure At An Unprecedented Level
Traders Don’t Care About Protection The price of the puts compared to calls is 2 standard deviations below the 5 year average as you can see in the chart below. You would think with stocks going up in a straight line, investors would seek to buy protection to lock in their gains. However, euphoria makes…
Is A Cyclical Slowdown Coming In 1H 2018?
Economic Growth Weakening? The term ‘global synchronized growth’ has become a buzzword in the financial press in the past few months. Obviously, just because it is widely used doesn’t make it wrong; in fact, it has been an accurate portrayal of reality. However, it’s always important to question the mainstream opinion. We often see trend…
Stocks Rally As Shutdown Ends
Government Shutdown Ends The government shutdown matters to the economy; I talk it down because the media likes to exaggerate its importance. The good news is it looks like it will end soon as of Monday after it went on for just 3 days. The chart below shows all the government shutdowns since 1976. As…
The Dumb Money And Smart Money Love The Financials
The TINA Trade Examined As I mentioned in a previous article, some investors believe low real interest rates mean equity multiples should be high because that’s what happened in this cycle. However, usually the real rates being in the 2% to 5% range is the best because it implies economic growth is strong. Bond investors…
Shutdown Looms, But Retail Goes All In On Stocks
Shutdown Drama Dominates The Headlines The latest news on the shutdown potential is President Trump met with Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer. It will be a close call if there’s a shutdown because they said they made some progress, but there was no explicit deal. This meeting is a good sign that something will get…
Government Shutdown More Likely Than Ever
Government Shutdown Looms On Thursday, the chances of a government shutdown increased, so stocks sold off again. This has always been a confusing issue for me because I think the government will shutdown, but I also think stocks shouldn’t selloff because of it. The conclusion that thought process brings me to is that the shutdown…
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