50 Basis Point Rate Cut In July Possible

50 Basis Point Rate Cut - Big Decline In Small Caps, Large Caps Fall Slightly Before getting into the possibility of an upcoming 50 Basis Point Rate Cut, let's review the current market. S&P 500 fell slightly for the 2nd straight time on Monday as it was down 0.17%. The market is cautiously waiting for the G-20 summit. But investors…

June Manufacturing Slowdown Is Highly Likely

June Manufacturing - Markit Sees 1.4% Q2 GDP Growth Before getting into June Manufacturing, let's discuss Markit reports. Markit expects Q2 GDP growth to be 1.4%. That’s with PMI data from the first 2.5 months of Q2. Once we get the final June Markit PMI report we will know Markit’s complete estimate.  Obviously, having about…

First Rate Cut - Stocks Could Return Just 2% In The Year Following

First Rate Cut - Stocks Digest Gains Before getting into the effects of the First Rate Cut, let's review the current market conditions. On Friday the stock market had a modest selloff as it digested the gains of the week and the record high on Thursday. S&P 500 fell 0.13% and VIX rose 4.41% to 15.4.  That’s a…

June Markit PMI Signals Just 1.4% Economic Growth

June Markit PMI - Is This A Slowdown? Before getting into June Markit PMI let's discuss some overall mixed market signals. During most slowdowns, opinions are varied because the data isn’t consistent. Some economists are wondering why the Fed is about to cut rates and others think the economy is headed for a recession.  If you review all the…

Record High for Stocks - Without Euphoria

Record High S&P 500 is very close to having a Record High and its best month of the year. With Thursday’s rally of 0.95%, it hit a new record high and is up 7.34% month to date. It was up 7.87% in January. With only one down month this year, the S&P 500 is up…

Powell June Press Conference Quotes

Powell Intends To Stay Fed Chair Let's review some of the quotes from Jerome Powell at his press conference to fully quantify Fed policy. First, when asked what he would do if President Trump tried to demote him, he stated, “I think the law is clear that I have a four year term and I…

Stocks, Bonds, and Gold Rally On Dovish Fed Guidance

Stocks, Bonds, and Gold - Fed Helps Continue Stock Market Rally By giving dovish guidance, the Fed kept the stock market’s rally going, in particular regarding Stocks, Bonds, and Gold. Up until this meeting, the stock market had declined on 9 of the past 10 Fed meetings. That was the worst string of performances since…

No June Rate Cut & Dovish Guidance

No June Rate Cut - Dovish Hold There was No June Rate Cut as the June Fed decision was a bit of a curve ball. In summary, this was a dovish hold. However, the details weren’t what investors expected as I will review in this article. Firstly, all the Fed members but one voted to…

Dovish Fed and Trade Deal With China Hopes Cause Stocks to Rally

Dovish Fed - Another Big Rally: The Market Wants Dovish Guidance Hoping for a Dovish Fed, the market ramped higher on Tuesday. Many investors are not as pessimistic on the economy as we were before the solid industrial production & retail sales reports came out. But, we're still nervous about where stocks will go in…

Consumers - 40% Worry About Tariffs - Trade Deal Needed Soon?

Consumers Starting To Worry About Tariffs Consumers are reacting to the trade deal in several sentiment reports. Recently, tariffs likely caused the June University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment index to fall. Let’s look at the actual data on what consumers said about tariffs. 40% of consumers spontaneously mentioned tariffs negatively in early June as you…

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