S&P 500 To Rally4.3% in 2020

Slight Pullback On Monday The stock market fell modestly on Monday after its big rally on Friday which was caused by the great jobs report. And, the market was pushed lower by Apple’s 1.4% decline. S&P 500 fell 0.32%. Apple is one of the trade sensitive stocks.  Obviously, there are other news events that can…

Great Real WageGrowth In Full Labor Market

Education And Healthcare Drive Job Creation November jobs report showed 266,000 jobs created which was the most since January. 41,000 of the manufacturing jobs created were related to the ending of the GM strike. That means there really were 13,000 manufacturing jobs created which isn’t terrible.  ISM manufacturing employment index fell 1.1 to 46.6 and…

Stocks Explode On Strong Jobs Report

Big Rally In Stocks After Strong Jobs Report Many investors thought the November jobs report would show less jobs created than it did. And many also thought a very strong jobs report with high wage growth could be problematic for the stock market. I will review the headline numbers from this labor report later in…

ISM Services PMI Falls & Markit PMI Rises

Services PMI Déjà vu (ISM Falls) November ISM services PMI fell and the Markit PMI rose. This is just like the manufacturing sector. One difference is the ISM manufacturing PMI was below the Markit reading. This time the ISM reading was higher (the gap just narrowed). It's more normal as the Markit PMI is usually…

Details On Trade Negotiations Are Released

2 Day Winning Streak Just like last month, the stock market is following a losing streak with a winning streak as it is up for 2 straight days. The calendar effect might be helping stocks as December is usually a great month. Interestingly, following years with gains of 20% or more, the average annual return…

ADP Private Sector Job Creation Misses All Estimates

Recession Odds Decline According to the Aruoba-Diebold-Scotti business conditions index, odds of a recession have declined recently. However, the most recent data in this report is always the least reliable. It gets updated after the fact when new data comes out. For example, the November industrial production report hasn’t come out yet. When it does,…

Is The Trade Deal Back On?

Stocks Recover Some Of Their Recent Losses: Trade Deal Back On? In a repeat of Monday’s manufacturing PMI data, the Markit services PMI improved and the ISM non-manufacturing PMI fell. Motor vehicle sales report rose after a weak October reading. ADP report was weak which only matters if it correctly signals weakness in the BLS…

Solid Cyber Monday & Markit Manufacturing Data

Strong Cyber Monday Redbook same store sales growth was 7.9% in the week of November 30th which was up from 4.3% and the highest reading since early January. You’d think that growth spike was because of Black Friday being a week later, but last week had 4.3% growth, meaning there wasn’t a decline in growth because…

Stocks Fall As Reports Show No Trade Deal In 2019

3 Day Losing Streak For Stocks Finally, the correction many had been predicting is starting; stocks declined. Namely, stocks fell on Tuesday because of worries about trade. It doesn’t look like there will be a trade deal by the December 15th soft deadline.  S&P 500 fell 0.66% which brings the 3 day losses to 1.92%. I…

Weak Manufacturing ISM PMI Sends Down Q4 GDP Growth Nowcast

Quick Q3 GDP Review: No Negative Growth A big story in the past few weeks has been that 2H 2019 GDP growth isn’t as bad as was feared in October. Real final sales growth should still be mediocre, but headline GDP growth isn’t close to going negative. You don’t need to see negative GDP growth…

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