Coronavirus Sends Stocks Lower - Bernie Sanders Is The Favorite

The Streaks Are Over! Stocks fell on Monday, ending the streak without back to back down days. It ended at 30 days, tying the longest streak since 1955. Furthermore, the 1.57% decline ended the S&P 500’s streak without a 1% decline. It reached 74 days which tied the one ending in October 2018. There were…

New Home Sales Miss Estimates, But Housing Market Is Still Solid

Disappointing New Home Sales December new home sales report wasn’t great because November’s reading was revised lower and December’s reading missed the low end of the estimate range. It’s not consistent with the recent strength in housing data especially housing starts, but it’s not weak enough to suggest a new trend is forming. Specifically, in…

Record Nasdaq 100 Rally

Modest Decline On Coronavirus Fears On Friday stocks couldn’t outlast the coronavirus fears like they did on Thursday as the S&P 500 fell 0.9%. The market just avoided a 1% drawdown, as it rallied slightly in the afternoon. There have now been 72 days without a 1% move either way in the S&P 500. Nasdaq…

Recession Indicator Avoided By A Hair

Leading Economic Indicators Disappoint Leading economic index was weak, but not weak enough to show negative yearly growth which would be a recession warning. Monthly growth in December fell from 0.1% to -0.3% which missed estimates by a tick. Yearly growth was 0.1%. A few reports are showing growth was actually -0.1%, but I’m going…

Risk Adjusted Returns In The 99th Percentile

S&P 500 Rebounds The stock market recovered after a morning selloff related to the coronavirus. From the low on the day, to the close, the S&P 500 rose 0.63%. WHO stated, it’s a “bit too early to consider this event as a public health emergency of international concern.”  So far, there have been 600 confirmed…

Lowest Existing Housing Inventory On Record

Redbook Same Store Sales Growth Improves Preliminary January consumer sentiment index from the University of Michigan was basically unchanged. As you can see from the chart below, the Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index is at a 19 year high as it has increased with the stock market. Correlation with the S&P 500 is quite high. Low…

Utilities & Tesla Are In The Stratosphere

Rally Since The Top Investing is all about perspective. If you look at how stocks have done since Christmas Eve 2018, this looks like an unsustainable bubble. If you look at how stocks have done since the peak on September 2018, the returns are much more normal.  S&P 500 is up 13.8% since September 20th which…

Regional Fed Reports Suggest Lower Stock Market Returns Are Coming

Manufacturing Improvement Coming? The equity market is very confident a cyclical recovery is coming. When poor economic data from Q4 comes out, it is discounted because investors are focused on 2020 which is expected to be the year where earnings growth recovers and the manufacturing sector rights itself. When the manufacturing sector actually does right…

Netflix Starts Off FANG Earnings

Slight Decline, But Stocks Still Overbought S&P 500 fell 0.27% on Tuesday, but let's discuss how overbought the market is. One modest decline doesn’t end that state. We need to see a decline of at least 5% for this market to become more normal. As I have said many times, this isn’t a bubble. For…

Hiring Increases & Consumers Stay Confident

Hiring Increases In November JOLTS In October, openings increased and hirings plummeted; in November it was the reverse. Headlines say this was a bad report, but I say it was ok. You can see the long term historical trends in hires, quits, openings, and layoffs & discharges in the chart below. Hires seem to be…

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