Dow Fails at 20,000 & Payrolls Data: More Of The Same

The Dow trying to hit 20,000 is like Shaquille O’Neal attempting free throws. Shaq was a great basketball player, but he wasn’t a great free throw shooter. The market is strong either way, but this milestone keeps failing to be reached. As you can see from the chart below, the Dow missed reaching 20,000 eight…

Fed Minutes & American Demographics

When the Fed raised rates in December, I explained it was because of the added inflation the Trump election brought and the anticipated stimulus package in 2017. The media and the Fed seemed to discount these factors to not appeal political. Those who disagreed with me said the Fed was going to raise rates after…

Bitcoin Falls Over 20%

In my article yesterday, I said bitcoin would hit an all-time high and then have a correction because it was overbought due to extreme speculation from China. It didn’t take long for that prognostication to come to fruition as bitcoin hit an all-time high on some exchanges before crashing 23%. The Coindesk website has an…

Inflation Rises To 1.7% In Germany

German inflation rose to 1.7% and European inflation increased to 1.1% in December. In a Reuters article, it was stated that these inflation numbers show the dovish ECB policies are working. Firstly, the inflation mainly came from energy. Therefore, OPEC takes more credit for the European inflation than the ECB. Secondly, the policy goal is…

Bitcoin Approaches New Record High

I said Bitcoin could get over $1,000 in January because of the intense momentum it has. The parabolic momentum has cascaded the price to near its record high. The current price is $1,103 and the all-time high was $1,242 set on November 29th, 2013. At one point today it was up about 18% year to…

Hope Springs Eternal (Optimism in the Markets)

I have been bearish on equities since late 2015 and remain so at the start of 2017. I’ve seen comments saying that I am issuing the same types of arguments that have kept people out of equities since the start of the bull market. My response is I was not bearish until late 2015 when…

Demonetization Hurts Indian Manufacturing

The Prime Minister of India, Modi, instituted a ban on the 1,000 and 500 rupee notes in November. He wanted to modernize the Indian economy and crack down on the money earned in the underground economy. This action was the wrong way to achieve those goals. The Indian economy can’t be modernized and become cashless…

New Monte Dei Paschi Information Trickles In

I had stated more information would come out about the Monte Dei Paschi bail-out solution over the next 2-3 months, but, to my surprise, information has slowly trickled out about the details of the plans for the bank. In my last article, I didn’t agree with the Italian politicians’ frustration with the ECB over its…

Italian Bank / Russian Diplomacy

In this article, I will be discussing the latest in the Monte Dei Paschi saga and the recent developments with America’s dealings with Russia. These two stories don’t mix, but neither have enough content to fill an article. With Monte Dei Paschi, there is continued political squabbling over what will occur in terms of the…

Real Estate Bubble?

While the optimism from economists and the citizens in general is high, the economic headwinds are higher. Trump economic message is inconsistent, so it remains to be seen what he gets done. He has a mix of populism and capitalism. He spouts anti-free trade rhetoric and discusses cutting regulations. These messages don’t mix. Only a…