Durable Goods Report Signals American Economy Officially In Slowdown?
Durable Goods Report - Orders Driven Down By Defense & Aircrafts The October durable goods report was weak. This signals hard economic data is supportive of the recent correction in stocks. The headline matches the takeaway from this report. But the underlying results need to be examined. That one time crash in defense orders isn’t…
Jobless Claims Spike, Increasing Fears Of A Recession
Jobless Claims - Stocks Give Back Early Gains Before getting into Jobless Claims, let's review the week thus far. After a horrid start to the week, it looked like Wednesday would have solid gains heading into the Thanksgiving holiday. However, stocks fell in the afternoon which limited their gains. The Dow fell 0.95 of a…
Housing Starts Grow 1.5% But Miss Estimates
Housing - E-commerce Sales Growth Let's go over e-commerce sales before getting into housing starts. Q3 e-commerce sales growth was only 3.1% on a quarter over quarter annualized basis. That fell from 3.6% in Q2. Q2’s growth rate was revised down from 3.9%. This is in tune with the October retail sales report which shows…
Retail Craters As Target Leads Stocks Lower
Retail Craters - Stocks Crash Further On Tuesday Bearish outlook despite the low CNN fear and greed index was correct again on Tuesday. S&P 500 fell 1.82% even as the CNN index entered the day at 8. That signals extreme fear. Losses on Tuesday pushed it to 6. 14 day relative strength index is actually…
Industrial Production Was Up 4%: No Sign Of A Recession?
Industrial Production & Manufacturing - 10 Year Highs Month over month industrial production growth was 0.1% in October. It missed estimates for 0.2% growth. September’s growth rate was revised from 0.3% to 0.2%. It’s not a great sign to see month over month growth miss estimates when the prior month was revised lower. The good news,…
Housing Market Index Craters
Housing Market Index - Oversold Stocks Fall Again Many investors are no longer bullish on stocks even though they are oversold because the fundamentals look bad. We got a reminder of those weak fundamentals on Monday. The new outlook has been working. CNN fear and greed index showed “extreme fear” heading into the day and…
G-20 Meeting - Will Presidents Trump & Xi Face Off?
G-20 Meeting - Very Strong November Empire Fed Report Before going into the G-20 Meeting, let's go over some stats from the November Empire Fed Report. Not every manufacturing survey from the Fed was weak in November. The first example of this is the Empire Fed report. It came in at 23.2, which beat estimates…
Global Yield Curve Inversion Spells Doom For The Economy
Global Yield Curve - Stocks Continue To Rebound On Friday Stocks rallied slightly on Friday. S&P 500 and the Russell 2000 both increased 0.22%. This latest weakness in FAANG and Nvidia crashing 18.8% was from weak guidance. The 0.15% decline in the Nasdaq was impressive. CNN Fear and Greed index was steady at 10 which…
KB Home Lowers Guidance Due To Weakness In The Housing Market
KB Home - Market's Big Reversal The reversal in stocks on Thursday is the gut-wrenching action that normally occurs in bear markets and corrections. Just when you’ve given up on stocks, they come roaring back. S&P 500 was down 0.71% in the morning and closed up 1.06%. Nasdaq rallied 1.72% and the Russell 2000 was…
October Core CPI Decelerated, But Fed Touches The Breaks Anyway
October Core CPI - Neutral Rate Holds The Policy Key Core inflation is starting to decelerate like many expected. Some economists are even projecting the cycle peak in inflation has occurred. Inflation will likely fall in the next few months along with oil. If you think the cycle peak in inflation has occurred, then it…
Recent Comments