FAANG Stocks Win The Midterm Elections
FAANG Stocks - Midterms Tell Us Economic Growth Is Strong The table below shows the historical midterm election results where the President is in his first term. In the 2018 election, the GOP lost about half of the House seats the Dems lost in 2010. They gained Senate seats unlike the Dems who lost 6…
Fed Rates - Kept Same On Thursday?
Fed Rates - Stocks Rally On Election Day With the 0.63% rally in the S&P 500 on Tuesday, the stock market is only down 6% from its September peak. It is up 3.06% year to date. This rally continues to vindicate my short term bullishness. I’m still bullish in the short term. CNN Fear and…
Consumer Confidence Extremely Strong
Consumer Confidence - Strong Redfin Sales Report The Redfin report showed year over year same store sales growth for the week of November 3rd was 6.1%. That beat the previous week’s growth of 5.9%. This is the strongest growth rate since the beginning of October. It signals the holiday shopping season is about to be…
Multiples Have Fallen The 3rd Most In 40 Years
Multiples - Apple & Amazon Fall, But Stocks Rally The S&P 500 rallied 0.56% on Monday. Berkshire Hathaway’s Class B shares rallied 4.7%. That's because the company bought almost $1 billion of its shares back in August. In the fist 9 months of the year the firm purchased $24.4 billion worth of shares. That’s over…
Strong Markit & ISM Services PMI for October
Strong Markit PMI Services The Markit PMI services index was similar to the manufacturing survey. Its final reading was very close to the preliminary mid-month reading. Final October reading of 54.8 beat the consensus and mid-month reading of 54.7. It beat last month’s report which was 53.5. Improved PMI is sharply divergent from the stock…
Fed Rate Hikes - 3 More Expected By December 2019
Fed Rate Hikes - Mixed Action On Friday Before delving into Fed rate hikes, let's review Friday's market action. With all the volatility in the past few weeks, it appears investors aren’t focused on the midterm elections. At worst, I think the election won’t affect stocks. At best, it will inspire a big rally. Stocks…
Apple Beats EPS & Revenue Estimates
Apple - Another Solid Rally On Thursday In the past 3 days the S&P 500 is up 3.75%. It was up 1.06% on Thursday. Nasdaq was up 1.75%, but that looks to be short lived. Apple fell after hours. Tussell 2000 increased 2.22% and the VIX fell 8.9%. Even though stocks have been roaring higher…
Wage Growth Is Not Excessively Inflationary
Wage Growth - Jobless Claims & Job Cuts Jobless claims and Challenger Job Cuts report didn’t match because one time layoffs boosted job cuts. The jobless claims report signals all is fine in the labor market. Number of claims fell from 216,000 to 214,000. There wasn’t much of an effect on the labor market from…
Strong ADP Report Shows 227,000 Jobs Created
Strong ADP Report The October ADP private sector jobs report showed 227,000 jobs were created as you can see from the chart below. This beat the consensus by a wide margin. Consensus was 178,000 and the highest estimate was 200,000. Year over year growth in the BLS jobs report has been slowing which is slightly…
Inflation Meets The Fed’s 2% Target
Inflation - Income Growth Misses Estimates & Inflation Meets Them Personal income growth in the September PCE report came in at 0.2% on a month over month basis. It missed the consensus for 0.4%. Stripping out taxes, real disposable income growth was 0.1%. As you can see from the chart below, year over year real…
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