“Emerging” Problems? BIS Warns On $3.5 Trillion In EM USD Debt

In a column posted elsewhere earlier this week, we took a look at what rising LIBOR means for China’s currency. Essentially, Chinese corporates that borrowed in dollars post-crisis are now frantically trying to reduce their debt as the cost to service it is tied to LIBOR. Effectively, that means selling yuan to buy dollars, which,…

Talking Currencies On A Sleepy Summer Friday

Let’s talk currencies because it’s Friday and there doesn’t seem to be much else to talk about (it’s the whole summer doldrums thing). Have a look at the yen and the yield on 10-year Japanese debt: So the yen’s trading at 100 and is on a tear against the dollar. It hit 99.84 at one…

Calling Crude Prices: May The Farce Be With You

We weren’t going to write about oil again today but while perusing analyst commentary it occurred to us once again that no one has any clue whatsoever where prices are going. It’s turned into something akin to astrology at this point and it kind of goes back to something else Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow said today:…

Three Things For Thursday: Wal-Mart, Oil, ‘Dud’ley

Well, it certainly feels like summer. If it weren’t for the Fed’s increasingly schizophrenic policy banter we’re not sure there’d be much to talk about. Thankfully there are a few notables today. First off there’s Wal-Mart which is riding high Thursday after reporting its eighth consecutive quarter of rising same store sales. That may sound…

Markets Call Fed’s Bluff After Minutes Reveal Split

One of the things we’ve discussed at length in these pages of late is the extent to which markets have begun to do the opposite of what central banks intend. The latest examples include the reaction in the aussie and the kiwi following RBA and RBNZ rate cuts: Well in what feels like a replay…

Watching The Dollar As Fed Minutes Loom

As we discussed on Tuesday, the FOMC appears to be dusting off the May playbook as the NY Fed’s Bill Dudley suggested that a September hike is indeed on the table after all. Obviously that’s a pretty silly contention - they’d be out of their minds to hike before the election. Still, it was enough…

Fishing For Growth In Maine

It’s never fun to watch people lose money. That’s why we find it irksome when someone brands us “permabears.” We don’t enjoy triple-digit declines in equities and we’re not going to enjoy it when yields finally explode higher and every retail investor who owns a junk bond ETF suddenly realizes what all those pundits meant…

“September With Risk To Never”

Perhaps SocGen was right after all. On Monday we highlighted a note in which the bank suggested that the current environment in which stocks and bonds rally in tandem is “as good as it gets.” Of course Monday’s market moves begged to differ as stocks continued their inexorable push higher. Well on Tuesday we got…

“As Good As It Gets”?

On Friday we noted that according to BofAML’s latest weekly flows report, every asset class saw inflows last week. Equities, loans, high yield, investment grade, and munis. It was all bid. We also observed that 50% of the bank’s clients expect the divergence between near record low Treasury yields and record high stock prices to…

‘Pipe’ Dream: Oil Rally Continues Amid Short Squeeze, False Hope For Freeze

Well, you can certainly tell everyone is on vacation. It’s quiet out there although we imagine there have been some loud nights in the Hamptons of late. Oil’s up (again) and that’s certainly helping the bid for risk.   Ostensibly this is all thanks to Saudi jawboning and today we got some vague commentary out…