Trump May Pick John Allison For Treasury Secretary

Investors are going along with the same belief system voters had when they chose Trump. Trump has taken multiple positions on issues which caused his supporters to envision their personal opinions on Trump and assume he was fighting for them. Investors are imagining the best possible scenario where he’s pro-business (possible), in favor of free…

No Need for Predictions

Investors are pricing in the pricking of the asset bubbles without selling equities. Bulls believe stocks will continue to rise even if interest rates increase even though they supported their claims for high equity valuations by saying interest rates are low. At all market peaks market consensus is wrong, but the current situation is much…

Italy - Risk On

The Italian election next week will be the beginning of the end of the European Union. Without Italy’s support the entire system breaks down. This will likely cause volatility in the market which will be tough for central banks to quell. The political tremors from Greece in 2012 will be realized in the next few…

Brexit - Part Three

While stocks, real estate, and sovereign debt may be in bubbles, there is a bigger bubble than them all. That bubble is the political bubble. Unlike other bubbles, there is no way to measure the feelings of citizens. The polls tend to underrepresent populist support much like analysts over represent earnings expectations. There’s no PE…

Faith Isn't a Strategy

When I refer to investors being optimistic, I am referring to multiple expansion. If earnings are rising then stocks going up is not evidence of optimism; it is an example of sound judgement. The optimism we’re seeing in this market is blind. It ignores any negative factor and only focusses on the positives. It will…

Unwarranted Optimism

The optimism in the market is unwarranted and unfounded. It’s amazing how the mainstream media concluded Trump would bad for the economy and then investors changed their minds and bought stocks after he won. The Fed’s bubble stock market hasn’t dealt with reality this entire recovery, so it’s not a big shock. In fact, Trump’s…

Is David Malpass Making Policy Errors?

Whenever a Trump advisor speaks to a media outlet, I am quick to analyze every detail because I am still trying to wrap my head around what a Trump presidency will mean in terms of policy. Campaign slogans need to be translated into actions. How this translation occurs depends on who Trump picks as his…

Social Media Bias

Last week I discussed the future of social media from a neutral perspective. In this article I will give more of an opinionated stance which looks at the recent trends in elections and media to see which direction the industry is going in. Social media firms should not take an opinionated, editorial stance on what…

Is Bannon a Mistake?

In the past 10 days since Trump was elected, there has been a mass scramble by investors and traders to determine what his policies will mean for the country as well as asset prices. I had an inkling that Trump’s presidency would not be what voters hoped for because he’s pursuing failed economic policies, but…

Russell 2000 RUT Hits New Highs

The Russell 2000 (RUT) continues to rally to unprecedented heights. This 13.5% rally is the largest rally since March 2009 which was the start of the bull market. The dollar index is also rallying again today. It reached 13.5 year highs. My leanings are against both rallies particularly the one in the Russell 2000. My…