Earnings Revisions Fall While Stocks Rally - Worst Case Scenario
Earnings Revisions - Estimates Weaken Earnings Revisions - Just because earnings season is over doesn’t mean earnings estimates don’t matter. Since investors are always projecting future cashflows, estimates always matter. They aren’t set in stone. The rate of change of estimates gives us an idea of where the economy is going and where stocks should…
Wage Growth - Solid In August
Wage Growth - Is It Accelerating? Wage Growth - In my last post I gave an overview of the August labor report. I’ll fill in the details with this article. ECRI has been negative on economic growth since late 2017. There was some slowness in Q1, but that was reversed in Q2 as growth was…
2 Year Yield Hits 2.7% For The First Time This Cycle
2 Year Yield - Treasury Yields Soar In the 2 Year Yield, The treasury market reacted to the jobs report which I will review later in this article. The 10 year yield increased 7 basis points to 2.94%. The 2 year yield increased 7 basis points to 2.7% which is the highest yield this cycle. The…
Social Media Stocks Fall To A 10 Month Low
Social Media Stocks - Momentum Tech Names Sell Off Again Social Media Stocks - My point that Amazon was overbought on Tuesday has been proven correct as the stock is down 3.98% in the past 2 days. It fell 1.83% on Thursday. It was one of many momentum internet names which declined. Apple stock fell…
Private Sector - 163,000 Jobs Added In August
Private Sector Job Creation Misses Estimates Private Sector - The ADP report is used to forecast the BLS monthly jobs report. In May and June the ADP report was below the BLS report. Therefore, when it came in strong in July, economists were expecting a blowout BLS report. Instead, it missed estimates. If the BLS…
Tech Stocks Crater and Correct As Sandberg & Dorsey Testify In Front Of Congress
Tech Stocks Crater - Sending Overall Market Slightly Lower Tech Stocks Crater - The overall market sold off modestly as it was brought down by tech. The S&P 500 was down 0.28% and the Russell 2000 was down 0.33%. The tech heavy Nasdaq was down 1.19%. The worst sectors were consumer discretionary and tech as…
Global Manufacturing PMI Falls To A 21 Month Low
Global Manufacturing PMI Falls Global Manufacturing PMI - Weakness in trade growth is expected. The JP Morgan global manufacturing PMI has been declining as you can see in the chart below. The input prices index has been elevated since mid-2017. New orders, headline PMI, and output have been declining since the winter of 2018. This…
Amazon Hits A $1 Trillion Market Cap
Amazon Hits A $1 Trillion Market Cap Amazon - Even though stocks fell, Amazon became the 2nd firm to reach a $1 trillion market cap as its stock was up 1.33%. This stock has been on a one way trip up as it is up 10.38% in the past month. If Apple sells off after its…
ISM Manufacturing PMI - Best Since May 2004
ISM Manufacturing PMI - Markit PMI Shows Moderation ISM Manufacturing PMI - The August Markit manufacturing report showed slight weakness. It was overshadowed by the remarkably strong ISM PMI report which I will review later in this article. As you can see from the chart below, the Markit PMI was 54.7 which was down from 55.3 in…
The Nasdaq Has Its Best August Since 2000
Nasdaq - Mixed Friday Market Nasdaq - The stock market was mixed on Friday as the Dow was down 9 basis points, the S&P 500 was up one basis point. The Nasdaq was up 0.26%, and the Russell 2000 was up 0.48%. VIX was down 4.95%. As you would expect with that type of action, the…
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