Fed Faced With Mission Impossible

This post-election period has been the most interesting in many decades. With Trump not being a politician, we didn’t have as good of an idea of what he would do as president as we usually do at this point in time. A lot of the breaking news reports to come out of the Trump administration…

Trump’s Rhetoric Versus Reality

The market has become unhinged from reality in the past few years as investors have decided to ignore what companies are telling them and instead listen to what Fed officials are saying. If Fed officials say the labor market is strong and inflation is low, investors believe them. Maybe investors don’t believe them and are…

Trump Is Status Quo

As I said in my last article, I was wrong about the market’s reaction to Trump winning. This wasn’t a Brexit market reaction. This was a reaction like we’ve seen to jobs reports in the past. The market goes up whether there is a good or bad report. In this case, the market would find…

President-Elect Trump Acceptance Speech

Against the odds and what most analysts predicted, President-Elect Trump pulled off a convincing victory in the Electoral College where he may reach 300 votes. He outperformed and won in some states which were thought to be blue: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and likely Michigan. He won the swing states he needed to win: Florida, North Carolina,…

Diversification Against Bubbles

When I say diversification against bubbles, I would argue the current state of the markets makes now the most difficult time to invest in many decades. I get asked what to invest in constantly by friends and family. While this would appear normal, the reason why I get asked this question is not. I make…

Election Front and Center

In my previous article I mentioned that betting on the market based on the election result is a bad idea because there's a lot of uncertainty. I’m still perplexed as to why the market rallied so much today when nothing is certain. If you did know who was going to win, I would only make…

Earnings Recovery Not In Clinton’s Emails

The reason why I didn’t get caught up completely in the 9 day sell-off was because the market was falling for the wrong reasons. Based on my work, I think earnings won’t recover in 2017 and the economy will continue weakening. The market has been ignoring weak earnings and weak economic growth for a few…

Is Wage Growth Strong?

First, before I get into wage growth, I would like to correct an error I made in a previous article where I said the 8 day losing streak in the S&P 500 was tied for the longest ever. Today’s down day is the 9th straight which is the longest streak since 1980. The longest losing…

More Jobs Than Ever

Today we got the BLS non-farm payrolls jobs report, which indicates more jobs than ever. The headline missed expectations as we saw 161,000 in jobs gains instead of the 173,000 expected. Because of revisions to the past two months we saw an increase of 44,000 jobs. While my expectations for a miss were wrong, we…

Two Elections In The QE Economy

I am following two elections in the QE economy this November. The first election is the presidential election on November 8th. The second election is the Tesla-Solar City merger. Both elections will affect the market in different ways. Both are also symbolic of the way our current economic system is set up. It rewards those…