Frackers Feel The Pain As Oil Collapses

Record Streak For Nasdaq 100 I am attempting to contextualize the recent rally in tech stocks. In doing so there will be some bearish points and some bullish points. Also, keep in mind that some tech stocks have better fundamentals than others. I consider it to be bearish when new records are made in terms…

The Fed’s Unwind Is Canceled Out By The ECB

Besides oil pressuring inflation, it looks like shelter inflation is also starting to decline. As you can see from the chart below, both shelter inflation and rent inflation are coming down. This is logical because apartment real estate prices are starting to come down as it appears there were too many apartment buildings built. The…

Fed Goes Through With Hawkish Hike Despite Weak Inflation

My prediction for Fed policy was wrong. As a reminder, I was looking for a dovish hike based on the latest disinflation, but instead the Fed didn’t deviate much from its policy. There was a stark difference between reality and what the Fed spoke about today as the core CPI and the headline CPI missed…

Tech Stocks Rebound

Just as I forecasted, the tech stock selloff ended Wednesday as the Nasdaq rose 0.73%. The S&P 500, Russell 2000, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average all hit an all-time closing high. The ECB’s $60 billion in bond buying per month combined with investors putting money into ETFs with a “buy the dip” strategy means…

Apple Stock Drags The Market Lower

Monday’s market action was like Friday’s action in that the S&P 500 closed nearly flat (down 0.1%) and the Nasdaq underperformed as it was down 0.52%. Adding to the weakness in the riskiest markets was bitcoin and ethereum which cratered in the afternoon. Bitcoin fell from $2,997 to $2,519. Some exchanges had bitcoin exceeding the…

Will Disinflation Affect The Fed’s Decision On Wednesday?

The chart below explains why inflation has been falling lately in Europe and in America. It shows the change in the year over year Bloomberg commodities index. There is a clear trend of disinflation led by oil. Wage inflation isn’t accelerating, so there’s no reason to expect any of the headline inflation numbers, whether it’s…

Tech Boom Turns To Bust As The Nasdaq Has Its Worst Week Of 2017

Friday was a great day for the market as most sectors were up. Energy and the financials did well as the S&P energy sector was 2.48% and the S&P financials sector was up 1.93%. However, in the afternoon the technology sector had a bit of a flash crash led by NVIDIA which was down 6.46%…

Atlanta Fed Downgrades Q2 GDP Growth Estimate To 3.0%

Regional Banks Soar It was interesting to see the financials rally on Friday given the problems with getting Dodd-Frank repealed. After falling 12.37% from its high on March 1st to its low on June 6th, the KRE regional bank index is up 7.13%. As I said, the Dodd-Frank repeal isn’t going as smoothly as the…

Consumer Comfort Remains High

The weekly Bloomberg Consumer Comfort index was released Thursday morning. It fell from 51.2 to 49.9. This was the first decline in 4 weeks. Confidence among Republicans decreased, while it increased among Democrats. This shows the partisan differences are disintegrating. This makes sense because now that the election is over, the questions can be answered…

Financials Lead, and Metals at an Inflection Point

Overall markets bounce around in a very tight range today as traders spent the day watching the political soap opera unfold. The winner of the day was financials as the Fed likelihood of a 25 basis point Federal Funds Rate increase next week hit 98%. In tonight's video we look at what's next for financials…