Election Front and Center

In my previous article I mentioned that betting on the market based on the election result is a bad idea because there's a lot of uncertainty. I’m still perplexed as to why the market rallied so much today when nothing is certain. If you did know who was going to win, I would only make…

Earnings Recovery Not In Clinton’s Emails

The reason why I didn’t get caught up completely in the 9 day sell-off was because the market was falling for the wrong reasons. Based on my work, I think earnings won’t recover in 2017 and the economy will continue weakening. The market has been ignoring weak earnings and weak economic growth for a few…

Is Wage Growth Strong?

First, before I get into wage growth, I would like to correct an error I made in a previous article where I said the 8 day losing streak in the S&P 500 was tied for the longest ever. Today’s down day is the 9th straight which is the longest streak since 1980. The longest losing…

More Jobs Than Ever

Today we got the BLS non-farm payrolls jobs report, which indicates more jobs than ever. The headline missed expectations as we saw 161,000 in jobs gains instead of the 173,000 expected. Because of revisions to the past two months we saw an increase of 44,000 jobs. While my expectations for a miss were wrong, we…

Two Elections In The QE Economy

I am following two elections in the QE economy this November. The first election is the presidential election on November 8th. The second election is the Tesla-Solar City merger. Both elections will affect the market in different ways. Both are also symbolic of the way our current economic system is set up. It rewards those…

The Market Looks Unstable

The market looks unstable and extraordinarily weak right now. As I’m typing we are about to see the 8th down day in a row in the S&P 500. Trump is gaining in the swing state polls. The jobless claims have been shooting higher. Finally, Facebook had a bad earnings report which is sending it and…

Federal Reserve Doesn't Raise Rates For Political Reasons

Federal Reserve Doesn't Raise Rates For Political Reasons--There wasn’t much of a surprise today when the Federal Reserve stated it wouldn’t be raising rate and that the case for a rate hike strengthened. This time 2 Fed officials dissented instead of the 3 which dissented in September. It’s strange how Steve Liesman reported this as…

Small Businesses Showing Weakness

Today the ADP report came out, with small businesses showing weakness. It wasn’t a great report when looking at the headline as the report showed 147,000 jobs created which was 18,000 below expectations. However, if you look deeper into the report, it looks even worse as small business job growth was the weakest category. Small…

It's a Trump Market

In a past article I mentioned how the chances of Trump’s election rising would cause the market to decline because his monetary policy statements have been critical of the current administration’s dovish policies, which I call a Trump Market. If the current policy was hawkish, the economy would crater. A Trump election could cause a…

Suspension of Logic

After every market correction like we are seeing right now, we get to see the same S&P 500 prices we saw in 2014, which is a total suspension of logic in many ways. It is up just 2% since November of 2014. If Trump wins the election, it will most likely go below that point.…