3.5% Annualized Gains Expected After The Curve Inverts
Manufacturing Holding Up The Economy? The manufacturing economy is running hot which brings uncertainty into economic forecasts because manufacturing is much more volatile than services. Manufacturing is smaller than services, but a big move can cause it to have a decent sized impact on the economy. I’m worried that weakness in services can be masked…
Stocks Rally As The Dollar Falters
Big Friday Rally The stock market completely ignored President Trump’s $500 billion tariff threat and the fact that the tariffs on $34 billion worth of Chinese goods kicked in on Friday. Every action thus far has been small. This was a sell the bluster, buy the action trade. Unless the larger tariffs that have been…
Stocks Rally After Fed Releases Minutes
S&P 500 Regains Some Losses Even though it seems like tariffs weren’t in the news on Thursday, they were because they were mentioned in the Fed Minutes. Furthermore, there was tariff related news after the bell which might send stocks lower on Friday. Trump stated as much as $500 billion worth of goods could be…
Boat Buying For Personal Use Is At A Cycle High
Do Economic Indicators Work? Game theorists believe the moment an economic indicator becomes an indicator, it ceases to be valuable because it can be manipulated for profit or influence. It’s cynical to believe every single indicator is manipulated, but some manipulation occurs and only looking at the same stats everyone else looks at isn’t going…
Every Sector Has Seen Multiple Compression In 2018
Does The Stock Market Matter To Trade? On Monday, Commerce Secretary Wilbur Ross claimed there was no level the stock market could fall to that would cause the President to change his trade policy. It’s not surprising to hear the White House claim this because if it stated there was a level the market could…
Weak Consumer Spending Pushed Down GDP Estimates
Trade Tensions Cause Futures To Sell Off Recently there has been a trend where stocks open higher and then fall throughout the day because of trade tensions. The key factor in determining when the selloff occurs is when the news comes out. If it comes out the night before, the futures decline, then the market…
Stocks End 1H 2018 With A Dud
Stocks End A Weak First Half The stock market had a good Friday until the hour before the close where it gave back almost all the day’s gains. The S&P 500 was up only 8 basis points to close out the quarter. The headlines mid-day stated that Nike was pushing the entire market up, but…
Banks Stress Tested: Most Pass
Stocks Rebound Modestly After a terrible week and a bad run for the bank stocks, the market finally rallied on Thursday. I expected this rally since the CNN Fear and Greed index showed the market was oversold. Interestingly, the Dow’s decision to replace GE with Walgreens was a big mistake in the near term. GE…
Biggest Structural Risks Facing The Market
Structural Risk: Trade Wars In a previous article, I reviewed the cyclical risks in the Venn diagram below. Now let’s review the middle risks which are both structural and cyclical. The trade wars are considered cyclical because Trump is going to be President for another 2.5 years or 6.5 years. Without him, these tariffs wouldn’t…
The Financials Have Been Down A Record 13 Straight Days
Stocks Open Up On Trump Statement The stock market rose at the beginning of Wednesday’s trading session because the statement about technology investment wasn’t as draconian as expected. The President released plans to strengthen use of the Committee on Foreign Investment in the U.S. There was no specific 25% Chinese ownership block like mentioned in…
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