Deutsche Bank On The Brink

You don’t know this, but we’ve been warning about Deutsche Bank for years. We’ve got great friends (and great people) who used to work at the bank and what’s amusing is that the last time we talked to them, they assured us that the idea of the company needing a government bailout was silly. Well,…

Political Sea Change

You know, we don’t want to get too political here. That’s not our job. But let’s face facts. There’s a very real chance Donald Trump wins the White House. The Democrats picked the wrong candidate. That’s not to blame them. She was the obvious candidate. Or was she? She’s become an easy target for criticism.…

Oil Wars Escalate As Hillary “Wins” Debate

We have previously called Donald Trump a “black swan walking” and not necessarily because we disagree with his politics. It’s just that no one has any clue what he would do as president (besides try to force Mexico to pay for a wall that will never, ever be built) and the market hates uncertainty. We…

Call A Cab: The Party Is Over

With everything going on in the world, it seems somewhat surreal that the top news is the first US presidential debate and a possible Disney bid for Twitter. Frankly, we don’t understood what exactly is wrong over at Twitter. It’s the most reliable, timely news service on the planet (even if some of it turns…

Ultimate Black Swan: Is Deutsche Bank About To Collapse?

Needless to say, all anyone cares about on Monday is the presidential debate which has morphed into a Super Bowl-like spectacle. It’s almost like we should have just declared a national holiday so everyone could sit around, drink beer and tailgate ahead of it. But alas, money never sleeps as they say (well, except on…

Weekend Thoughts On The Election

On Friday, we brought you Goldman’s recommendations for how to trade the upcoming US presidential election. In a nutshell, you want to be long stocks with a significant proportion of revenue derived domestically and you want to get long anything that benefits from fiscal spending. This is obviously a reflection of the expectation that both…

Smartest Guys In The Room Tell You Where To Invest Ahead Of Election

There’s an election coming up. Did you notice? Apparently you didn’t: (Chart: Goldman) As you can see from the above, we’re well below the median (in fact we’re below the 25 percentile) when it comes to equity market uncertainty ahead of a US presidential election. Which is of course curious considering headlines like this:  …

Tokyo, We Have A Problem

It seems pretty clear that markets are not going to cooperate with the Bank of Japan. Recall that earlier this week, Haruhiko Kuroda announced the bank would begin managing the yield curve in an apparent effort to steepen things up a bit so the country’s banks don’t shrivel up and die. Here’s a look at…

What Goes Up, Must Come Down

What can you say about Thursday? Triumph of the central bankers we suppose. It’s all up: That’s stocks and oil. Now have a look at bonds: Same story. Steady, but with a yield bias lower. Here’s how Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow put it: “That dud landed with a thud. It fits the FOMC’s desired narrative to…

Fed Sparks Rally With Maybe-Dovish, Maybe-Hawkish Hold

Ok, well that worked out well… Fed on hold? Just buy it all, dammit. And here’s the VIX: Poor volatility - we’re starting to feel sorry for it. Here’s the full bullet point summary for anyone who missed it: FED SAYS NEAR-TERM RISKS TO OUTLOOK ‘APPEAR ROUGHLY BALANCED’ FED: HIKE CASE HAS STRENGTHENED AS FORECAST…