May Was A Great Month For The U.S. Economy
Very Strong Kansas City Manufacturing Report Across the board, manufacturing has been strong according to the regional Fed manufacturing indexes. As you can see, in the chart below, they have all turned up. The most recent report is from the Kansas City Fed. Its index was 29 which was above the highest estimate of 25,…
Stocks Fall As North Korean Summit Was Canceled
President Trump Kim Summit Nixed The North Korean negotiations with America before the summit were more important than the actual summit. Getting the details in order about how the meeting will be secured and what will be discussed are far more important than the actual meeting. This isn’t like a business deal where real negotiations…
Stocks Rally After Fed Minutes
Target Reports Weak Results The stock market was down slightly on Wednesday morning as Target’s poor earnings results hurt market sentiment. The market rebounded to close positive after the Fed’s Minutes. The S&P 500 was up 0.32% and the Nasdaq was up 0.64%. I think it’s relevant to look into Target’s numbers because I’m focused…
Faulty Indicators Which Should Be Ignored
Delinquencies Versus Jobless Claims The charts below are interesting, but I think they ultimately provide a falsely negative result. I’ve never seen the delinquency rates being compared to the initial jobless claims, so I think it’s worth taking a look at this. The problem with this calculation is that the jobless claims have been extremely…
Stocks Fall On Renewed China Trade Jitters
President Trump Still Negotiating With China There is certainly communications inconsistency from the White House on the China trade talks. Mnuchin stated there had been meaningful progress with the negotiations and the plans just needed to be implemented. In an impromptu media Q&A with the President who was at a meeting with the President of…
Dodd Frank Amended
Leading Indicators The economic data is important to my thesis which states you should be buying stocks at these prices. It may not seem like the economy moves stocks, but fundamental investors might not react within the minute a report is released like the algorithms do after a geopolitical event occurs. The chart below shows…
Monetary Policy Sweet Spot For Stocks
Market Hitting New Highs In the past few quarters, hitting new highs meant new all-time highs, but now it just means the highest prices since March. The S&P 500 was up 0.74% which means it is at the highest price since March 15th. The S&P 500 is now up 2.22% year to date. The next…
24.5% Earnings Growth Is Bullish For Stocks
93% Of Firms Have Reported Q1 Results According to FactSet, 93% of S&P 500 firms have reported earnings. These firms have a blended earnings growth rate of 24.5% as 77% have beaten sales estimates and 78% have beaten earnings estimates. If the 78% beat rate holds up, it will be the highest beat rate since…
3.2% Q2 GDP Growth Expected Which Is Bullish for Stocks
Solid E-commerce Sales The e-commerce sales for Q1 were released on Thursday. The quarter over quarter seasonally adjusted sales were up 3.9% which was higher than last quarter’s 3.2% growth. However, the year over year growth was down from 16.9% to 16.4%. Unsurprisingly, there was a big share gain since the retail sales at brick…
Russell 2000 Hits Another Record
Slightly Negative Friday The stock market was down slightly on Friday as the Nasdaq was down 0.38% and the S&P 500 was down 0.26%. The S&P 500 remains stable right after it broke out from its streak of lower highs. Personally, I’m bullish on American economic growth and earnings which means I expect a new all-time high,…
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