Manufacturing & Industrial Production Look Great
Industrial Production Was Strong I’m looking for green shoots in the economy as I expect Q2 to be a rebound from Q1. American economic growth is headed in the opposite direction as Japan and Europe which have decelerated. Emerging markets are doing poorly because the dollar has strengthened. After we get some green shoots, I…
Russell 2000 Hit A Record High
Russell 2000 Hits A New All-Time High The stock market reversed most of Tuesday’s decline as the S&P 500 was up 0.41% on Wednesday. It was a big day for the Russell 2000 as it hit a new record as it was up 1%. Some say the small caps can be leading indicators for the S&P 500. Here’s…
Apple Services Business Reviewed
Apple Services Revenue Mix Apple’s services business is becoming a big part of the thesis behind buying the stock as the smartphone market is saturated and there’s probably a limit to how much Apple can raise the prices of its iPhones. There was some pushback from the consumer after the $999 iPhone X came out.…
10 Year Yield Hits 3.09%: Still No Panic In Stocks
Slight Decline On Tuesday The stock market was down slightly on Tuesday as the S&P 500 was down 0.68% and the Dow was down 0.78%. The Dow ended its streak of 8 straight up days. The Russell 2000 was actually flat after it underperformed Monday. The sector performances show the main action on the day was…
Retail Sales Miss Can’t Support The Recent Rally
Market Sentiment Neutral It’s worth reviewing the market sentiment because we are in an uncertain moment in the near term for the stock market. The S&P 500 was able to exit the streak of lower lows. By doing this, it became fairly overbought in the past week. The hope was that this rally wouldn’t fade…
Rate Hikes Coming In June & September
Flat Stock Market On Monday The S&P 500 was up 0.09% as it gave back most of its gains from the morning. The Dow now has an 8 day winning streak. The Russell 2000, which is the closest major index to its all-time high, was down 0.4%. This flat market supports my thesis that the…
Retail Industry Up 18% Year To Date (S&P 500 Up Only 2%)
America Set To Outperform? Analysis have been toying with the thesis that America might take a strong leadership role in the growth of advanced economies. This would expand the S&P 500’s earnings multiple as capital comes back to America. America has weak competition as there has been a slowdown in Europe; South Korea has seen…
High Gas Prices To Wipe Away Tax Cut Benefits
Inflation Specifics Inflation has been increasing modestly this year. Since the inflation most often focused on is the year over year data, it’s important to recognize that there are base effects helping the rate look better than it is. It’s easy to grow on top of the disappointing growth numbers in 2017. The base effects…
Yield Curve On Pace To Invert In 3-4 Months
Yield Curve Inversion In 3-4 Months The ultimate signal for investors looking for the next recession is the yield curve. The chart below shows the difference between the 30 year yield and the 5 year yield. At the pace the yield curve is flattening, it will be inverted by August or September. To be clear,…
Stocks Breakout From The 3.5 Month Downtrend
S&P 500 Breakout There’s never a time where you want to celebrate being correct, because you’ll miss the next move. That being said, it appears the market is supporting the notion that this entire move since February was just a correction. As you can see from the chart below, with the 0.94% move upwards on…
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