Stocks Rise, Crude Tumbles As All Eyes On NFP

On Saturday we noted that “buy the dip” has now ceased to be a condescending nod to retail investors and/or a critique of central bank largesse. Instead, Wall Street now openly advocates it. Here’s the quote from Deutsche Bank: “We suspect the Fed’s insistence to raise again will therefore allow bouts of market price adjustment…

It’s So Simple: “Buy The Dip”

If you believe the Street, “buy the dip” has become scripture. We talked extensively this week about the Fed doing everything it can to preserve its optionality going forward. That was readily apparent on Friday when Yellen and vice Chair Fischer adopted seemingly contradictory lines. Optionality or no optionality, it’s starting to feel like we’re…

Konichiwa

Alright, well we made it. It’s Friday. Yellen spoke and we survived. The rally lives. Another few red points on the Dow and S&P and the Nasdaq’s marginally green. This was pretty easy to see coming. The optionality is critical. This is another one of those situations where you have to wonder what the alternative…

Confusion Reigns After Yellen Jackson Hole Speech

Well, we waited around all week only to get… nothing. Here’s the bullet point summary of Yellen’s Jackson Hole speech: FOMC STILL SEES GRADUAL HIKES APPROPRIATE OVER TIME OUR ABILITY TO PREDICT FED RATE PATH IS QUITE LIMITED FOMC EXPECTS LABOR MARKET TO CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN SOME ESTIMATES SHOW REAL NEUTRAL RATE CLOSE TO ZERO…

It’s All About The Flow

So one of the themes we’ve explored here and elsewhere recently is the extent to which the move into NIRP across Europe and in Japan has herded investors into USD credit thus putting a bid under Treasurys. However, as the dollar funding crunch has accelerated, hedging that exposure has nearly eliminated the spread. Deutsche Bank…

Aimless Markets Cast Wary Eye Toward Jackson Hole

It’s yet another day of aimlessness across markets as the entire financial universe awaits Janet Yellen’s Jackson Hole speech. Just about the only other thing anyone seems to care about this week is EpiPen prices. As far as Yellen goes, Citi conducted a survey to find out what the market expects. Here are the results:…

Boy, Oh Boy

Boy, oh boy, you know it’s August when this is a Bloomberg “headline”: DUNKIN' COLD-BREW COFFEE LAUNCH WAS `VERY STRONG’ Fantastic. We’re not sure what the counterfactual there would be (maybe “Dunkin’ says cold-brew launch was complete dud”), but hopefully this market will get some caffeine next week once everyone has the weekend to decode…

R.I.P. “Real” Markets

Well, just as we said on Monday evening, we’re still sleepwalking ahead of Yellen. A Wednesday in August ahead of a hotly anticipated Jackson Hole speech by a Fed chair is about the sleepiest scenario one can possibly imagine, but there are some notables (thank God). First of all there’s crude. EIA data was actually…

Rampant Complacency

You just have to laugh. Stocks closed green across the board and the Nasdaq hit an all-time intraday high as investors cheered upbeat housing data and a big beat from Best Buy which, along with Wal-Mart’s decent quarter, goes some ways towards allaying fears about the American consumer. Frankly though everyone is just shaking their…

“We Have Ignition”: Iran Tape Bomb Sends Crude Higher

We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again: when it comes to crude prices, it’s all about geopolitics one way or another. There’s way too much emphasis placed on discrete rig count prints and US inventory data. Concurrently, there’s way too much credence given to the idea that OPEC is “dead.” The whole point…