Predictions For 2017

Predictions are tough to make. They are especially difficult with central banks manipulating asset prices. Excess liquidity does wonders to stocks no matter what the individual company’s fundamentals looks like. That being said, I still want to make some predictions in this article for 2017. They may not be more accurate than the typical punditry,…

Buybacks Down, Optimism Up

The equities market has rallied on the anticipation of the Dow hitting 20,000. It’s an irrelevant factor for fundamental investors, but it matters to traders who look to push the market higher. The market has looked to push higher since the election as momentum reigns supreme. It’s a weird concept to say that the market…

Italy Kicks The Can

This week Monte Dei Paschi, the weakest Italian bank, is under renewed scrutiny because it still needs to raise money to recapitalize and get rid of 28 billion Euros in bad loans it has. The reason why I focus on this issue is because of the two risks in play. The first is the potential…

Trump Optimism Shown In Markit Index

As the year ends, not much looks to be changing in the markets as volumes decrease and data points become less frequent. The prognosticators have made their picks for another bullish year in 2017 even though stocks are at near record high valuations. We are in ‘wait and see mode’ on whether the optimism is…

2017 Will Be Like 2016

The optimism about earnings and the economy heading into this year is higher than last year even though the Fed is more cautious. The Fed expected 2.4% growth in 2016. This likely won’t be met looking at the numbers which have come in so far. For 2017 the expectation is for 2.1% growth. There isn’t…

Currency Jenga Game

The game has changed ever since Trump was elected and inflation started to pick up. This is a risky proposition because the system is unstable. The only reason why it looks stable today because central banks are doing everything in their power to make it look good. However, this very action is what makes it…

Facebook Is Playing Catch-up

Facebook continues to copy other social media apps with its new announcements. If almost every single new feature is a copy of another app, then it makes you wonder how long it can stay on top of the social landscape. There is a trap you may fall into when thinking about these new changes. For…

Fed Hawkishness Reverberates

Yesterday’s Fed rate hike and hawkish guidance has had big impacts on global markets. It has accelerated the sovereign bond selloff. I have made the claims that central banks have been keeping interest rates low to fund the debts governments have run up. You can argue that the Fed now has no choice when it…

Fed Statement Analyzed

There was a panelist on CNBC during its coverage of the Fed decision who put out the idea that the Fed would raise rates 6 times next year. If Trump’s polices do create growth and the Fed reacts to this by raising rates 6 times, Trump will attack the Fed, calling it a political entity…

Fed Raises Rates

Today the Fed raised rates by a quarter point. It provided guidance for three rate hikes in 2017. This is an increase of one rate hike in 2017 from the September dot plot. 2018 and 2019 have that quarter point rate hike pulled through, but have no additional rate hikes from what was expected. The…