Lower For Longer: Street Bets On Treasury Rally As Top Fed Official Warns On Policy

"I think markets may be extrapolating from our recent behavior and thinking all we do is delay.” That’s from Jeffrey Lacker and it’s entirely accurate. Lacker has been a vocal critic of the FOMC’s easy money policies for years and on Monday, The Washington Post published an exclusive interview with the Richmond Fed chief. Back…

Bulls Run As Goldman Oil Call Sparks Rally

If everyone is being honest, forecasting commodities prices further out than say six or so months is well nigh impossible. There are just too many inputs. That goes double for oil, the most financialized of all commodities. As I wrote last week, the market is now trading almost exclusively off crude. Sure, there are myriad…

Which Came First, The Fed, China, Or Oil?

Last September, Janet Yellen adopted the now famous “dovish relent.” A little over three weeks earlier, China “shocked” the market with a “surprise” devaluation of the yuan. To be sure, no one should have been taken off guard. China is an export driven economy with a currency tethered to the dollar. As the dollar moved…

More Downside For LendingClub And P2P? Signs Point To Yes

It was just three days ago when I asked the following question: “does the disaster at LendingClub foretell the demise of marketplace lending?” While it’s ultimately too early to know the answer, it’s worth noting what’s happened since then. If you read that post, came away bearish, and acted on your newfound pessimism, you’d have…

“Crude” Reality: This Market Is Driven By Oil

Don’t kid yourself. It doesn’t matter who you are or what you’re trading, it’s all about oil these days. If you don’t buy that, then have a look at the carnage that unfolded in January. Sure, some of it was attributable to the hangover from the first Fed hike in nearly a decade and the…

Kyle Bass Sticks To Guns On China At SALT: “It Will Happen Sooner Rather Than Later”

“I suppose I need someone to define hard landing for me.” That’s from Kyle Bass who has taken it upon himself to go to war with China’s central bank. Back in January, Bass began to lay out his thesis in earnest. “China is going to have to dramatically devalue its currency,” he said. Of course…

Trading A Presidential Impeachment: Brazil Edition

Trading A Presidential Impeachment: Brazil Edition Well it finally happened. Brazil impeached President Dilma Rousseff. Sort of. Technically, the Senate voted to move forward with the impeachment process, which means Rousseff will stand trial on charges she conspired to cook the fiscal books in 2014. Meanwhile, VP Michel Temer will govern. He’s expected to announce…

Einsteinian Insanity: Media, “Experts” Say Central Banks Should Buy (More) Stocks

Einsteinian Insanity: Media, “Experts” Say Central Banks Should Buy (More) Stocks Earlier today, I touched on the fact that the BoJ and the ECB have largely failed to rekindle the inflationary impulse in their respective economies. And it’s not for lack of trying. Haruhiko Kuroda is monetizing the entirety of gross JGB issuance, imperiling liquidity…

It’s Good To Be King (Dollar) - Or Is It?

It’s Good To Be King (Dollar) - Or Is It? Heavy is the head that wears the crown. It’s good to be king. Asked to choose which of those old adages best describes how it feels to control the fate of the world’s reserve currency (“king dollar”) in a time of intractable currency wars and…

Here Come The Big Boys: Wells Fargo Kicks P2P Lenders While They’re Down

Here Come The Big Boys: Wells Fargo Kicks P2P Lenders While They’re Down Earlier today, we said the following about marketplace lenders (the politically correct name for P2P, or online lending):   “Coming full circle, it’s worth noting that even from the start this business was a risky proposition. These online intermediaries are comparatively inexperienced…