Junk Equity Index Signals Financial Stress

Tariff News Driving The S&P 500 The chart below shows the S&P 500 since December. The tariff announcements are labeled along with the 33 day moving average and pivot points. The relative strength index is in the top chart. This correction has been longer than the average one. Judging based on the action before the…

Stocks Rally After President Xi’s Pro Trade Speech

Stocks Rally Sharply On Tuesday The stock market had an amazing day on Tuesday as the S&P 500 was up 1.67%. All the sectors were in the green except real estate and utilities. Energy was the big winner as it was up 3.32%. Tech was up 2.48%. The reason stocks did so well was President Xi gave a…

The ‘Risk Off’ Trade Has Gotten Extreme

Correction Has Gotten To Extreme Levels Review of the ‘risk off’ trade in the past few days has been interesting because it has gotten remarkably extreme in some ways for such a normal correction. I remain in the camp that believes the fundamentals are sound. Growth is slowing, but that only justifies a correction opposed…

CBO Releases Dire Projections For U.S. Debt

Stocks Lose Steam In The Afternoon On Monday, the stock market had a strong morning, but then gave up most of its gains in the afternoon. The Dow was up 440 points in the afternoon, but only closed up 46 points or 0.19%. The S&P 500 was up 0.33% and the Nasdaq was up 0.51%…

Earnings Season Is Ready To Save The Stock Market

Earnings Season Saved The Market Earnings season will be starting this month. That’s a welcome relief for the stock market which has been dealing with a lot of negative headlines mostly from the tariff battle with China. The market is in an unusual situation where earnings growth is remarkably strong even though the business cycle…

Stocks Fall On Trade War Jitters

Powell’s First Speech Powell took a measured approach in his first speech as Fed chair as he gave reasons why the Fed shouldn’t hike too quickly and why the Fed shouldn’t hike too slowly. This is a slow hike cycle overall, but he means even slower when describing a speed which is too slow. Too…

Jobs Report Misses Estimates, But Wage Growth Was Strong

Jobs Report Misses Estimates The headline jobs growth missed expectations, but the report had plenty of positive takeaways. On a broad sense, my analysis might sound like it contradicts itself because sometimes what is good is bad and vice versa. This is because the goal is to have a Goldilocks economy. When wage growth gets…

President Trump Threatens To Add $100 Billion In Tariffs

President Trump Initiates $100 Billion More In Tariffs The stock market had a good Thursday as the S&P 500 was up 0.69% and the Dow was up 241 points which is equivalent to 0.99%. Unfortunately, after the close, President Trump instructed the U.S. Trade Representative to consider $100 billion in additional tariffs. This sent stock…

Stocks Rally Despite Chinese Trade Action

China Issues $50 Billion In Tariffs & Stocks Rally?!? The stock market had a terrible morning because China announced $50 billion in tariffs per year which effect 106 U.S. products including soybeans, whiskey, cars, and chemicals. This 25% tariff comes on the heels of Trump’s list of Chinese imports which he wants to target to…

Strong Manufacturing ISM Report Signals Stocks Should Rebound

Solid Manufacturing ISM Report The ISM manufacturing report for March was solid as the PMI was 59.3 which is 1.5 points below February’s result and 0.9 point above the 12 month average. The table below gives you a summary of the data. As you can see, the growth mostly slowed down. The orange boxes highlight…

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