Q1 2019 EPS Growth Expected To Be 5.02%

Q1 2019 EPS Growth - The Cyclicals Are Cheap Relative To The S&P 500 The chart below is shocking because the forward PE of cyclicals versus the forward PE of the S&P 500 is much lower than it has been since 1980. There are a few takeaways from this metric. The most obvious one is cheap…

Wage Growth - Strongest Production Non-Supervisory Since 2009

Wage Growth - December Wage Growth Was Strong The December labor report was strong across the board. Specifically, construction added 38,000 jobs, retail trade added 24,000. Trade & transportation added 34,000, and professional & business added 43,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings growth was 0.4% month over month which beat estimates for 0.3% and last month’s…

Stellar December Labor Report Causes Stocks To Skyrocket

Stellar December Labor Report - Expectations Were Grim For The December Jobs Report Heading into the December jobs report, which was released on Friday, January 4th, the S&P 500 was 4.12% above its bear market trough. One of the top conversation topics in the financial media before the report was released was if a recession was…

Apple Pre-Announces Negative Guidance For The First Time Since 2002

Apple Pre-Announces Negative Results Apple had a bad Q1 even though overall U.S. retail sales were great. The firm lowered its Q1 revenue guidance from a range of $89 billion-$93 billion to $84 billion. This wildly missed the Street’s consensus for $91.3 billion. Furthermore, the firm’s gross margin guidance fell from 38% to 38.5% to…

Market Predictions For 2019

Market Predictions - Still Expecting A Trade Deal Between America & China 2018 was a tumultuous year for markets partially because of the uncertainty caused by U.S. trade policy. Deals were made with countries such as Canada and Mexico. But the tensions with China were ratcheted up much of the year. Then in early December,…

Stocks Didn’t Like Powell’s Statement

Stocks Crater After Fed Meeting Even though stocks entered Wednesday near the low for the year, they fell even more after the Fed’s decision and press conference. Specifically, the S&P 500 fell 1.54%, the Nasdaq fell 2.17%, and the Russell 2000 fell 2.03%. S&P 500’s 14 day RSI fell to 31.93 which means it is…

Hawkish Hike - Fed Surprises The Market

Hawkish Hike - The Fed Raises Rates And Lowers Guidance Slightly Fed raised the Fed funds rate 25 basis points and the IOER by 20 basis points. Fed funds rate’s range increased from 2%-2.25% to 2.25%-2.5%. Guidance for rate hikes in 2019 fell from 3 to 2. I projected the Fed would hike rates and…

WTI Oil Falls 7.3% - Down 40% Since October

WTI Oil - Slight Tuesday Rally: Stocks Still Oversold Before we get into WTI Oil, let's review the stock market. S&P 500 was up one basis point on Tuesday which means it is still right at the low for the year. Nasdaq increased 0.45% and the Russell 2000 fell 7 basis points. Because of the…

Stocks Primed for a Rally

Stocks Primed For A Rally The stock market is uncertain about the possibility of a trade war and a hawkish Fed. However, I think a trade deal will be struck and the Fed will pull back on its hawkish 2019 guidance. Specifically, I expect the Fed to hike rates on Wednesday and guide for either…

Bear Market - Are We In One Already?

Bear  Market - Another Terrible Day Of Selling In the short term, I was very wrong to be bullish as of Friday’s close. Stocks fell sharply on Monday, which makes them even more oversold. It’s almost as if the market is doing whatever it takes to get the Fed to not hike rates on Wednesday.…

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