FOMC Statement Review

As I mentioned in my previous article, the Fed didn’t unwind the balance sheet because it can’t. Interest rates would rise to such high levels the federal government would have a tough time paying off the interest on the debt. The idea that the Fed isn’t using the balance sheet to affect the economy is…

Fed Balance Sheet Stuck At $4.5 Trillion

The decision by the Fed was mainly covered by the press as the third rate hike since the financial crisis, but I contest the biggest story is the new stance to avoid shrinking the balance sheet in the medium-term. Heading into the meeting, I made a convoluted prediction in that I expected the Fed to…

Fed Raises Rates: Stocks & Bonds Rally

The Fed announced it raised rates 25 basis points in its March statement. Furthermore, it stated it would be raising rates two more times in 2017 and three times in 2018. Finally, Yellen stated there wouldn’t be any near-term movement to unwind the Fed’s $4.5 trillion balance sheet. There is a lot to unpack with…

Fed Hike Incoming

In this article, I will discuss my prediction of what the Fed will do on Wednesday. I am writing this article before the announcement, but you may be reading it afterwards. It’s still valuable insight because it gives you an idea of where the Fed is in the monetary cycle. The three parts to discuss…

Are The Bulls Giving Up?

The stock market fell slightly on Tuesday as it prepares for the Fed to hike rates on Wednesday. In this article, I will discuss the latest changes to the macro environment, namely the decline in sentiment surveys and the increase in the producer price index which may soon reverse because of falling oil prices. Bull…

CBO Rates Ryancare

In this article, I will review the latest charts which show the speculative craze the stock market is in. Then, I will update you on the latest information on the GOP’s healthcare plan. On Tuesday, the NFIB will release its latest survey on business optimism; it has been the poster child for the positive survey…

9.8% Earnings Growth Expected In 2017

This week is going to be centered around the Fed’s decision on interest rates on Wednesday. This rate hike will be met with much less angst than the previous two as investors become accustomed to the Fed raising rates at a faster clip than 25 basis points per year. The decision on rates will be…

SEC Denies Bitcoin ETF: Bitcoin’s Price Crashes

In this article, I will discuss the latest developments in European monetary policy and review an interesting chart which shows historical real labor unit costs, but first I will react to the breaking news about bitcoin which was released Friday afternoon. Bitcoin ETF Denied The, much heralded by the media, Winklevoss Bitcoin ETF was denied…

Great Labor Report

In this article, I will review the latest jobs report. I will then explain what it means for the market and monetary policy. As you can see in the chart on the right, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported the non-farm payrolls employment increased 235,000 which beat the upwardly revised expectations for 200,000 jobs created.…

The 10-Year Bond Hits Bill Gross’ 2.60% Target

We are in an interesting time for equity investing because productivity is stuck in a rut, yet stocks are levitating higher. Since productivity growth drives economic growth, there’s no way stocks can rally in the long-term without it. I think both will correct as productivity growth will likely revert to the mean, possibly due to…

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