S&P500 Range In The 2,800 For The 5th Time In 6 Months

S&P500 Range - Back Again So Soon? S&P 500 was up 0.69% on Wednesday as it now is on a 3 day winning streak after coming off a 5 day losing streak. In those 3 days, the S&P 500 has gotten back all the losses from last week and more. The S&P 500 is now at…

Utilities More Than Double S&P 500 Returns Since February 1st

Utilities - Economic Review Economic growth should be strong in 2019 based on the strength of the consumer as real wage growth is at a cyclical high. GDP growth might not be great in Q1.  Even though wage growth has been strong, there was a scare from the government shutdown which curtailed spending. If the…

Small Business Optimism Rebounds Slightly

Small Business Optimism - Another Rally Tuesday The stock market has almost recovered all the losses from the minor correction last week. On Tuesday, S&P 500 increased 0.3%, Nasdaq increased 0.44%, and Russell 2000 was up 6 basis points. Just like what happened 3 times last fall, the S&P 500 has had trouble around the…

Core CPI Inflation Falls Modestly, Supporting Fed Pause

Core CPI Inflation - Redbook Same Store Sales Improve Slightly Core CPI Inflation - Redbook same store sales growth was much quicker than retail sales growth in December and January. Investors are interested in seeing if this relationship continues. This would imply retail sales growth being weaker in February since Redbook sales growth fell. I…

Retail Sales Improve In January

Retail Sales Improve - Stocks Rebound On Monday It’s not a surprise stocks rebounded sharply on Monday because they had fallen 5 days in a row. Stocks are constantly reacting to previous overreactions. Dow even rallied 0.79% despite Boeing’s 5.33% decline. This occurred because its 737 MAX 8 plane crashed in Ethiopia killing 157 people. …

Aggregate Income Growth Falls Sharply

Aggregate Income Growth Falls Just because the February labor report could be a blip doesn’t mean we shouldn’t review it. To be fair, the January labor report was also a blip since it’s highly unlikely job creation averages above 250,000 in 2019 let alone the 311,000 jobs created in January.  The February report doesn’t signal…

5 Day Losing Streak for Stocks

5 Day Losing Streak The stock market fell on Friday for the 5th time in a row. Stocks rebounded from the low on the day to only close modestly lower.  Traders acted rationally in that they didn’t sell stocks vehemently on the BLS miss. They realized these reports can be volatile, so stocks didn’t crash. From…

Housing Starts Beat Estimates, But Job Creation Misses By A Mile

Housing Starts Improve in January The January housing report improved partially because the California wildfires didn’t crush starts like they did in December. Most investors knew the weather hurt results. But I we weren't sure by how much because the housing market also was weak in December. This was due to cyclical reasons and starts…

Stocks Fall 4 Straight Days

Stocks Fall - Extend Losing Streak The stock market sold off for the 4th straight time on Thursday. S&P 500 fell 0.81%, Nasdaq fell 1.13%, and Russell 2000 fell 0.86%. Personally, I find the headline that the stock market fell on fears of an economic slowdown humorous.  There were plenty of bad economic reports in January and…

3 Bear Markets Since 2009

3 Bear Markets - An Explosion Bears love to mention how the economy is due for a recession and the stock market is due for a collapse.  That’s a mistake because there have been a few slowdowns and technical bear markets this cycle. Technically, there is no numerical definition of what makes a recession.  Some…

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