Oil Falls & the GOP’s Timeline Extends Further

The bearish theses I have had for the past few weeks have been coming to fruition in the past few days. The reward for being correct has thus far been less than a 2% correction in the S&P 500. The tilt is clearly positive. Being precisely correct on two negative catalysts still hasn’t brought a…

Oil Falls Over 5%

The main reason why the stock market fell Wednesday was because of a 5.38% decline in WTI oil. My prediction for oil prices to fall because of a high amount levered long trades and high inventory levels finally began to come true. My thesis has been that oil prices falling to the high $30s would…

1.2% Q1 GDP Growth But Strong Private Sector Jobs Growth?

In this article, I will continue the discussion about the indicators which are telling separate stories. Many hard data economic reports have been weak; the corporate debt level would seem to indicate the cycle should have ended already. Even with slow GDP growth last year and a debt cycle which appears to be near its…

GOP Presents Its Healthcare Plan

The stock market is pricing in flawless results from the GOP in terms of fiscal policy. To analogize, it’s like when the market is expecting a company to beat earnings estimates and raise guidance. If the company meets expectations, the stock falls after hours because it’s priced for perfection. I have a few charts to…

Q1 GDP Expected To Be 1.3%

The stock market was down slightly on Tuesday. Snap stock was down 11% to a 21 handle. While Snap doesn’t have a large market cap, it’s significant because it represents the latest excess of Wall Street. The company has a lock on the attention of teenagers and 20-somethings, but is burning cash quickly. It will…

Are Stocks Overbought?

On Monday, the market sold off slightly. The sell-off was either a continuation of the selling pressure caused by the market being overbought after the Trump-speech rally or because the stock market finally realized rate hikes are coming fast and furious this year. In my opinion, the market shouldn’t have rallied after Trump’s speech because…

High Debt & Low Revenue Growth Didn’t Cause A Crash

The stock market was down Monday. The S&P 500 is down about 1% from its all-time high. Anytime the stock market has been down since the election, it’s bigger news than it normally would be because it’s been in almost a straight line higher. It is difficult to remember what a normal market is like…

French Election: Le Pen's Chances Fall

This article is about the latest movements in the French presidential election. The shifts in this election have been happening quickly. The reason I am analyzing it closely because it has the potential to move equity markets, including in the U.S. There has been a wave of populism spreading throughout the world because the global…

Rate Hike In March Certain

In this article, I will review the recent statement made by Fed chair Janet Yellen about the possibility for rate hikes in 2017 and the latest ISM Non-Manufacturing report. The rate hike in March appears to be locked in. I am surprised with the speed at which the market changed what it was pricing in.…

Speculators Rule The Market

There is a distinct possibility we are closer to the end of this bubble stock market than most expect. It’s difficult to determine where stocks are going when they are priced based on the fundamentals. When they are increasing based on sentiment alone, it becomes nearly impossible. Since sentiment is very important to this market,…