Initial Trade War Scare - Stocks Mostly Recover

Initial Trade War Scare - Big Trade Related Swing Initial Trade War Scare - We’ve heard government officials repeatedly say the trade negotiations with China were going smoothly and a deal was near completion. We learned this weekend that’s not the case. To be clear, stocks have been helped by this positive rhetoric, but it hasn’t…

Job Cuts - Motor Vehicle Sales Both Fall

Job Cuts - Motor Vehicle Sales - Job Cuts Decline Job Cuts - Motor Vehicle Sales - The elevated Challenger Job-Cut average in Q1 described the labor market differently than the low jobless claims and the unemployment rate.  As you can see from the chart below, even though total job cuts fell to 60,587 in March, the…

Stock Market Ignores Bad News & Focuses On Jobs Report Beat

Stock Market - Big Rally On Friday So much for the potential stock market correction. On Friday, S&P 500 rallied 0.96%, Nasdaq increased 1.58%, and Russell 2000 increased 1.98%.  Amazon stock rose 3.24% after Warren Buffett revealed Berkshire Hathaway had a stake in the company. No offense to Warren Buffett, but I don’t see how…

Chicago, ISM, Markit PMI - All Weak

Chicago, ISM, Markit PMI - Chicago PMI Chicago, ISM, Markit PMI -In this article, I will be discussing a few relatively weak April PMIs. Chicago PMI fell from 58.7 to 52.6 which missed the consensus of 59 by a long shot. The low end of the consensus range was 57. For some reason economists didn’t notice…

Investors Bullish On Treasuries - Most Since Summer Of 2016

Investors Bullish - Another Decline Investors Bullish - The stock market fell for the 2nd straight day on Thursday. S&P 500 was down 0.21% and Nasdaq fell 0.16%. On the other hand, Russell 2000 rose 0.4% and VIX fell 2.57% to 14.42. Headlines blamed the decline on Powell’s hawkish stance. If a selloff of about 1% off the…

No Rate Cuts - Fed Is Unanimous

No Rate Cuts - Earnings Season Is Almost Over No Rate Cuts - Earnings season isn’t completely over and the rate of change of analysts’ estimates always matters. However, now that most firms have reported their Q1 results, investors’ focus will shift to economic reports. To be clear, it’s great that earnings estimates were beaten by a…

Hawkish Fed - Stocks Fall in Reaction

Hawkish Fed - Stocks Fall As Fed Won’t Cut Rates Stocks now must stand on their own because the Fed won’t support them with rate cuts. This isn’t necessarily a bad thing because earnings season has been solid and the ECRI leading index implies growth will improve later this year.  Atlanta Fed’s first few Nowcasts…

Fed Did Not Change Rates As Expected

Fed Did Not Change - Doesn't Hike Rates In a surprise to almost nobody, the Fed didn’t hike or cut rates at its meeting on May 1st. However, I don’t see the Fed cutting rates this year and the market does. As a result of the Fed decision and statement, the Fed funds futures market…

Apple Revenues Fall, But Its Stock Rallies

Apple Revenues Fall - Yet Soars After Hours On Earnings Beat Apple beat estimates on the top and bottom line which means Alphabet is the lone loser out of big internet firms this earnings season. Heading into earnings season, I was very interested to see how their stocks would react to their results given their amazing…

Q1 GDP Growth Was Weak, Despite Great Headline Number

Q1 GDP Growth - Leading Index Improves ECRI leading index at the start of the year implied Q2 and Q3 would be terrible quarters for the economy. Now the index is showing signs of green shoots.  As you can see in the chart below, the year over year growth rate improved to 1.4% in the week of…

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