Market Sentiment Is Way Too Optimistic

There’s an interesting dichotomy which is brewing in the market which is a recipe for lower stock prices. I will review this bearish signal in this article. The dichotomy is that investors are incredibly bullish while bank lending has started to seize up. Sentiment indicators can signal short term trend corrections if they get too…

French and German Elections

While 2016 was a massive year for elections, with the American and U.K. populist movements headlining the votes, 2017 will also be a pivotal year. There will be a government transition in China in the fall. There will also be French and German elections which will likely bring equity volatility due to the uncertainty about…

Low Returns Almost Guaranteed in the Future

Anecdotal evidence that the market is in bubble has hit me. I’m sure most people involved in finance have heard questions about the stock market from those not in the industry. It has become an exciting time to invest, so the number of questions I’ve received has increased recently. The reality is the stock market…

Q1 Earnings Looking Bright Due To Energy

In this article, I will look at the latest earnings metrics from FactSet, some of the latest figures in the auto loan market, and the lack of volatility in the market compared to the policy uncertainty. First, I want to discuss updated pricing of interest rates shown on the CME Group website. Since the day…

Is The Market More Expensive Than Ever Before?

Don’t mistake my positive explanation of the BLS, ADP, and ISM reports to indicate that I’m bullish on stocks for the long-term. Unlike the typical commentator who claims he/she is expecting a correction in the short term, but is bullish for the long term, I claim that I don’t know where the market is headed…

Snap IPO Is Coming Soon

Snap’s long awaited S-1 filing is now public. There’s a lot of media buzz about the nuances of the filing which is exactly what Snap wants. Looking at the major social media players, I think Snap will benefit the most from going public. This is because Snapchat’s user base is mainly 18-34 year old people.…

Great BLS Report

As I expected, the market is rallying today on a great labor report. It wasn’t much of a prediction because the market has recently gone up whether good or bad labor data is presented. It also wasn’t much of a surprise considering the great ADP report. It showed 227,000 jobs were created which easily beat…

Inflation Has Been Rising

In this article, I will discuss the global rise of inflation. Normally the level of inflation we’ve see globally wouldn’t be a big deal because it is still relatively low. While I think inflation targeting is a bad policy for central bankers to pursue, I would never go as far as saying if they achieve…

Fed Put On Watch By Congressional Vice Chairman of Financial Services

The chances of a rate hike in March has fallen from 17.7% to 13.3% and the chances of zero rate hikes this year has risen to 6.9%. Besides Trump’s rhetoric, the lack of hawkishness by the Fed is also hurting the dollar. The market participants always convince themselves that this year will finally be the…

Economic Data Looks Amazing In January

On Wednesday two great economic reports were released. The January ISM and ADP reports showed the economy likely had a great month. While it is true that much of the stimulative measures Trump will enact will start to affect the economy in 2018, he didn’t need to do anything other than promise deregulation and tax…