A Yield Curve Inversion In September?

Stocks Rally On Tuesday The S&P 500 was up 1.26% on Tuesday. The VIX was down 10.67% to 21.10 which is still relatively high. Every sector was up. The best ones were energy and healthcare which increased 2.14% and 1.52% respectively. Some traders have expressed hope that another sector such as the financials will take the…

Tesla Misses Production Guidance & Spotify Lists Shares

TSLA Misses Estimates & Stock Soars Tesla stock had been cratering in the past few weeks because of fears the firm would need to raise capital, that Elon Musk was an aloof CEO, and that the firm would miss Model 3 production expectations. Tesla’s guidance was for a production run rate of 2,500 per week.…

S&P 500 Matches February Closing Low With Monday Decline

Big Selloff On Monday There was a sharp decline on Monday in which the S&P 500 fell 2.23% and the Nasdaq fell 2.74%. The VIX was up 18.28% to 23.62. The S&P 500 fell to 2,554 in the afternoon before rallying a bit near the end of the trading session. It closed about 1 point above the February…

Tesla & Amazon Face Headline Risks

TSLA Has A Terrible Weekend There are many acronyms to describe the large momentum tech names. One of those is TFAANG. That one includes AMZN and TSLA. While there weren’t any earnings reports during the holiday weekend, there were prominent tweets from Elon Musk and President Trump which affected stocks. Tesla’s CEO jokingly tweeted that…

2.4% GDP Growth Predicted For Q1 2018

ECRI Index Declines Slightly As you can see from the chart below, the weekly ECRI index’s growth rate fell slightly from 5.4% to 5.2%. The longer it stays in the mid single digits, the better. This implies the 2nd half of 2018 will see strong economic growth as there will be a re-acceleration after a modest…

S&P 500 Ends Quarter Down 1.22%

Streak Of 9 Positive Quarters Is Snapped There were many record winning streaks snapped by the correction in February. With the weakness in March combined with the February decline, the market had its first down quarter since 2015 as the S&P 500 fell 1.22%. The Wall Street phrase “the easy money has been made” is…

The Sector Rotation Out Of Tech Continues

Another Bad Day For Tech Tech stocks had a terrible day as the Nasdaq was down 0.85% and the S&P 500 tech sector was down 0.87%. The defensive real estate, consumer staples, and telecom sectors were all up more than 1%. This is a sign the sector rotation continued in a somewhat flat day as…

Momentum Tech Stocks (Tesla, Facebook, Nvidia, Alphabet) Hammered

Tuesday Tech Crash Stocks looked like they were going to continue their uptrend on Tuesday after the sharp rally on Monday. The market was up in the morning, but then crashed in the afternoon. The S&P 500 was down 1.73% and the VIX was up 6.99% to 22.50. The biggest weakness was in tech as the Nasdaq was…

Synchronized Global Growth No Longer Exists

Recent Tariff-Related Industry Performance The 3 charts below show three industries which are supposed to be the most affected by the tariffs. The steel industry is supposed to be helped, but it has been down over 10% in the recent weeks. Investors aren’t hopeful that the tariffs will stick without a retaliation. While the overall…

Tariff Impact Negligible: Bear Market Unlikely  

Sentiment Indicators Surprisingly, the CNN Fear and Greed index was still stuck on extreme fear after the rally on Monday as it was at an 8 out of 100. The table below reviews some of the sentiment indicators and shows if each one is a bullish or bearish signal. The put to call ratios for 3 days…