Solid ADP Report Signals Strong BLS Reading Ahead

Solid ADP Report - Small Caps Selloff The stock market continued its selloff on Wednesday. S&P 500 fell 0.65%, Nasdaq fell 0.93%, and Russell 2000 fell a whopping 2.01%.  Finally, the stock market has had a mini-correction as the S&P 500 is down 1.15% from its closing high on Friday.  As you can see from…

Markit Expects 2.6% Q1 GDP Growth

Markit - Weak Construction Spending December construction spending report was weak. But probably not the reason stocks fell.  Stocks entered the week very overbought. No matter if economic reports beat or missed estimates, stocks would be on a path lower. Construction spending report showed monthly growth was -0.6% which missed estimates for 0.3% growth and…

2019 GDP Growth - China Expects Between 6% and 6.5%

2019 GDP Growth - Slight Tuesday Decline Before getting into 2019 GDP Growth, let's review the stock market. The stock market fell again on Tuesday. S&P 500 fell 0.11%, Nasdaq fell 2 basis points, and Russell 2000 fell 0.45%.  Bears are always quick to jump on any move lower after a long winning streak. They tend…

Non-Manufacturing ISM Report was Amazing

Non-Manufacturing ISM Report - Another Weak Redbook Report Investors are starting to get concerned with the sharp decline in Redbook same store sales growth. It fell from 5.2% to 4.2% in the week of March 2nd. That’s the slowest pace in 10 months.  Month to date sales were down 1.6%; that’s the 8th consecutive negative reading. The…

Stocks Recover After Monday Morning Dip

Stocks Recover - After Modest Fall The stock market opened higher before plummeting in the late morning and recovering in the afternoon. From the peak early in the morning to the trough later in the day, the S&P 500 fell 1.72%. It felt like the market would finally roll over.  Traders on Twitter were gearing…

Global Manufacturing Falls To A 32 Month Low

Global Manufacturing Falls - Weak Markit Manufacturing PMI The Markit manufacturing PMI was 53 in February which fell from 54.9 in January. This is the slowest rate of manufacturing growth since August 2017.  Inflation eased, but the rate of output and new order growth slowed. This report supports most other manufacturing metrics which show manufacturing growth…

Bear Market Repealed - S&P 500 Surpasses 2,800 For The First Time Since November

Bear Market Repealed Almost Fully Bear Market Repealed on Another solid rally on Friday that brought the S&P 500 very close to its record high in September. And it fully repeals the quick bear market.  Investors feared the worst in December. But now it’s clear America is only in a slowdown and is outperforming most…

Q4 GDP Growth Estimate Beat - Stocks Ignore It

Q4 GDP Growth Beats Estimates The stock market fell on Thursday. Yet quarter over quarter annualized GDP growth beat estimates for 2.2%. It was 2.6%. 2018 was the first year since 2004 where GDP growth was above 2% in all four quarters (2.2%, 4.2%, 3.4%, and 2.6%).  Stocks ignored the solid report because information on…

Redbook Sales Solid, MBA Applications, & Pending Home Sales

Redbook Sales - Same Store Sales Growth Moderates Redbook sales year over year same store sales growth rate of 5.4% last week supported the strong consumer sentiment reading.  Growth fell to 5.2% this week which is still above the 4.6% growth of 2 weeks ago. The deceleration from 9.3% in December has stalled for now.…

Consumer Expectations Soar On Rising Stock Market

Consumer Expectations - Confidence Rises The stock market is usually thought of as a reflection of the future economy. However, through the reflexivity theory, the stock market can cause changes to the economy.  Volatility paired with the trade war and the government shutdown to take down consumer confidence and other soft data reports. Noteworthy due…

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