Economic Reflections On Jobs Friday

In light of today’s white hot jobs print, we wanted to address something that’s been bugging us for quite sometime. It’s one thing to observe an economic trend and explain, preferably using data, why you think it’s undesirable or otherwise suboptimal based on your utilitarian view of what’s best for society. That’s great. It’s called…

And The BLS Said, “Let There Be Jobs!”

Now you see why we made such a big deal out of the Fed, Treasury yields, and data dependence on Thursday. Allow us to show you two headlines that hit the terminal within eight minutes of each other Friday morning: FOMC’s Dec. Mtg ‘Still Most Likely’ Time for Next Hike: BofAML ‘Let’s See Yellen Get…

One Bank Looks At “Surprises” — And We Weren’t Surprised With What They Found

On Wednesday, Goldman was out with an interesting note on the extent to which Treasury yields react to economic data surprises. Right off the bat that sounds boring, right? Well it’s actually not. This wasn’t just an academic exercise for the sake of meeting some research quota. It matters a great deal these days because…

The Queen’s Bazooka: Full Bank Of England Post-Mortem

Now days, it’s always advisable to curb your enthusiasm when it comes to hitting the keyboard frantically as soon as a developed market central bank announces something big. Why? Because in all likelihood you’ll end up having to publish something an hour or so later with a title like “market fades latest central bank Hail…

Stop The Presses, Oil Is In A Bear Market

Ok, so oil is in a bear market. Stop the presses. It’s funny because earlier this year we were marveling at the fact that if things kept going like they were going (i.e. if crude kept grinding inexorably lower), oil would be moving from bull market to bear market on a near daily basis. We’d…

Bond-pocalypse Now: Will Japan Be Ground Zero For The Implosion?

Well we woke up to red screens, or at least what counts for red screens in these manipulated markets. “Mixed” is the new “down.” This screengrab from CNBC.com pretty much says it all: While any Japan fatigue you’re feeling is understandable (we suppose there’s yet another way to use the term “Japanification”) we pretty much…

“We Ain’t Buyin’ It Anymore”

On Tuesday we got two pieces of evidence to support the contention that the market has lost all faith in the ability of authorities to rescue the world from subpar growth and the kind of universal “Japanification” that threatens to drag the majority of the developed world into the deflationary doldrums. We realize people have…

Land Of The Rising Yen

As the Brexit drama unfolded we remarked that it would be difficult to come up with a topic that sounds more boring than “British politics.” That said, “Japanese fiscal stimulus” would be right up there on the “snoozers” list if you didn’t know the context. Of course if you do know the context, you know…

Junk Energy: Too Rich For My Tastes

Two weeks ago, we issued a “Friday chart challenge” in which we showed you the following graphic: The point, of course, was to demonstrate that the market is pricing in less relative default risk for HY energy than at any other time since late 2014. That of course is absurd given the global deflationary supply…

Now Everyone’s Calling A Top

Ok, so let’s get to a couple of things you might have heard making the rounds on Monday. For one thing, Goldman said sell some stocks last night. The bank has “tactically” downgraded equities on a 3-month time horizon. We’d love to know what an “un”-tactical downgrade looks like. It’s the same old story, but…