Draghi Gives A Political Speech

Draghi & Yellen Deliver Nothing Besides Yellen, Mario Draghi, the ECB president, spoke at the Jackson Hole event. There was some intrigue into whether he would give detail on the ECB’s bond buying program, but that will be pushed off into October as he didn’t give any monetary policy updates. The dollar continued to selloff…

Yellen Talks Tough On Regulations At Her Last Jackson Hole Event

In my last article, I discussed the possibilities of Yellen’s Friday speech at Jackson Hole. I was accurate in my expectation of what her speech would be on as the main point of her speech was to defend the regulations put in place since the last financial crisis. This was the speech of someone who…

Draghi To Announce Tapering At Jackson Hole?

What Will Draghi Say? Yellen is speaking on Friday at 11AM. The same day, at 3PM, ECB chair Mario Draghi is speaking. There are conflicting reports about whether he will give new guidance about the tapering. I always thought he would give guidance in October or November because it’s closer to when the bond buying…

Could The Dollar Rise By The End Of The Year?

The Dollar We don’t know for sure what caused the dollar’s weakness, but one aspect that is probably hurting the dollar is the accelerating growth in China, Japan, and Europe. Looking at future price performance, we must consider the possibility of a dollar rally. The chart below shows the speculative positioning in the dollar. When…

Debt Ceiling Is Even More Politically Charged

The stock market sold off on Wednesday because of the threat President Trump made in his speech on Tuesday to shut the government down if he didn’t get funding for the southern border wall. This is in direct conflict with the Treasury Department which is asking Congress to raise the debt ceiling. Usually presidents are in…

$450 Billion Loophole To Cut Taxes

Tax Cut Talk Heats Up The rally in stocks on Tuesday was said to have been caused by the tax cut talk. The S&P 500 rallied 0.99% and the Nasdaq rallied 1.36% as both inch closer to revoking the 2% selloff. I don’t know how much of the rally is about the tax cuts because…

The Economy Is In The Expansion Phase Of The Cycle

Predicting economic cycles is difficult. This cycle has been especially tough because of central bank interventionism, the fact that the recession was worse than any other one since the Great Depression, and that the recovery has been weak. All those three points mean the recovery will be longer than usual. QE and low interest rates…

The Next Recession Not Coming In At Least 5 Years?

Many investors want to predict the next recession. There’s no imminent sign of a recession, but there is the risk of one in a few years since the economy has been recovering for over 8 years. One of the best signals of a recession is the yield curve. When the Fed raises rates enough, it…

Golden Age For Stock Pickers

ETFs Still Small But Growing Fast The biggest trend when it comes to fund flows is the movement from mutual funds to ETFs which are passive investments. The trend is important because it effects markets. It’s also rare historically in the sense that the strategies that most non-professional investors use to save for retirement and…

E-Commerce Takes More Retail Share: Now At 8.9%

Slight Correction, Nothing Serious The stock market fell slightly Friday with the S&P 500 down 0.18%. The market had a bad week as the S&P 500 is about 2% off its high. CNBC has a weird headline saying the market rallied on Steve Bannon’s resignation from his role in the White House even though it…