Sleepy Tuesday

So it’s a sleepy Tuesday, which is to be expected because God knows what went on in the Hamptons over the weekend. But the desks better get it together quick because as you all know, this is a big month. In fact - and this is a sad state of affairs- the fate of the…

“Crude” Realities Rear Their Ugly Head

Well, you’ve gotta love crude. A while back - we’re not sure exactly how long, chalk it up to bad short-term memory - we noted that this was about to become another round of OPEC headline hockey, all of it completely meaningless except of course to the non-thinking algos that will simply buy/sell the “news”…

Are We On A Path To De-Globalization?

One of the most important things to understand about the upcoming US election is that both candidates seem to be leaning towards adopting some manner of protectionist policies. For Clinton, it seems to be an outgrowth of her protracted battle against Bernie Sanders whose message about lost jobs resonated among large swaths of the electorate.…

“Eventually, Markets Have To Reflect Realistic Assumptions”

On Thursday in “Stop The Madness,” we highlighted some commentary that we think is broadly representative of how investors are thinking about markets these days. In a nutshell, the message is this: there’s so much cash floating around and no one knows where to put it because yields on everything from German bunds to investment…

Payrolls Post-Mortem: Just Good Enough, Or An Excuse To Wait For December?

We’re not much for conspiracy theories but come on. 151K on the jobs print? If the Fed was looking for “optionality” they certainly got it with that number. Yes, it was below consensus, but not by a large enough margin to completely rule out a September hike. The other side of that coin is that…

Exposing The Lie Behind “Efficient” Markets

We’ve talked tirelessly about how correlated and interconnected markets have become in the post crisis world. If you believe in the efficient market hypothesis, you believe - generally speaking - that asset prices always reflect available, relevant information. In other words, you can’t “beat the market.” It’s always going to “beat” you to the mark…

A Tale Of Two Manufacturing Prints

So it was more mixed signals about the state of the global economy on Thursday with manufacturing reports out of the UK and the US painting starkly different pictures of economic health. At around 4:30 ET we got the UK print. Here’s the Bloomberg summary: U.K. Aug. Manufacturing PMI 53.3 vs 48.3 in July; Est.…

Stop The Madness

Sometimes really smart people say things that seem really silly in times when rationality has been pushed aside by some powerful force exerting undue pressure on markets. Allow us to give you an example. The following are excerpts from Friday’s commentary by Bloomberg’s Mark Cudmore, a former FX trader who writes a daily missive: “Stop…

Dollar Dilemma Looms As Greenback Hits Three-Week High

“We’re in a world where they seem to work. They may be difficult to deal with for savers, they go along with quite decent equity prices.” That rather disquieting quote is from Fed Vice-Chair Stanley Fischer who was the Fed speaker du jour on Tuesday in yet another week where markets are simply waiting around…

Looking Ahead To Friday: NFP Preview

Citi has some “things” they want you to take note of headed into the Friday jobs number that could ultimately determine “to hike or not to hike” next month. Here are the bullets (these are based on the initial print, i.e. not the revision): In these 19 years the August initial print has been above…