Unemployment Rate Shockingly Falls To 8.4 Percent

Great August Jobs Report Once again, the ADP report was too negative on job creation. In the past few months, it has been too negative, but at a lesser rate each time. At this pace, in the next few months it will re-couple with the BLS report. We won’t be discounting the ADP report next…

Tech Underperforms In Thursday’s Selloff

Stocks Finally Fall The stock market finally fell on Thursday as the momentum tech stocks were responsible for most of the losses. There was profit taking. Stocks that have done the best this summer fell, even the value/cyclical stocks. In the near term, most don’t expect the moderately overbought cyclicals to fall in line with…

Labor Market Keeps Improving - Ignore The Noise

Jobless Claims Fall Jobless claims report from the week of August 29th had a few nuances that make looking at the seasonally adjusted headline reading or any other headlines misleading. Seasonally adjusted claims fell from 1.011 million to 881,000 which was below the consensus of 958,000 and the lowest estimate which was 910,000. These estimates made…

Extreme Mania - September 2020 Peak

Mania Knows No Bounds This stock market can’t go down. It only goes up. S&P 500 increased 1.5% on Wednesday even though it came into the day showing extreme greed on the CNN fear and greed index. S&P 500 is now up 10.84% on the year. It has officially been a better than average year…

ADP Report Misses Estimates: Stock Market Doesn’t Care At All

Disappointing ADP Report The private sector payrolls report from August was disappointing as there were 428,000 jobs added instead of 900,000. However, this is still more jobs created in a month than usual in recoveries. Unemployment rate is about to fall below the peak in the last recession. We can start to have a normal…

This Is Destined To Be the Biggest Bubble Ever

Extreme Market Continues Did you expect the bubble to stop just because August ended? Of course, it didn’t end. This bubble is destined to be the greatest ever. Nasdaq increased 1.39% which means it’s now up 33.1% year to date and 50% in the past year. S&P 500 was up 75 basis points. This was…

Improved Consumer Spending & Manufacturing PMI

Same Store Sales Ramp The consumer did much better in August despite the elimination of the $600 in weekly unemployment benefits. That’s likely because of the improvement from people working and that more people have jobs. Redbook same store sales growth was 4.6% in the week of August 29th which rose from 0.6%. This is great…

Tesla and Apple Bubbles Reach Unbelievable Heights

3 Stock Market Investors keep expecting this trend where a few stocks control the market to end, but it keeps going. This is one of the greatest bubbles in history, so we shouldn’t be surprised. Near the end of bubbles, we see the craziest action. That occurred on Monday as most stocks fell, but Tesla…

Unemployment Benefits Are Being Paid - Mini Stimulus

Impact Of Lower Benefits Two aspects of consumer spending are worth following. Firstly, we can look at the impact of the elimination of the $600 in weekly unemployment benefits and then the $300-$400 in weekly benefits that are gradually being brought back state by state. There wasn’t a massive decline in spending in the beginning…

Fifth Straight Up Week and Month

Very Rare Day Friday was a rare day because large cap tech and small cap value were highly correlated. This is rare for this summer, but normal in most markets other than the late 1990s and early 2000 before the tech crash. Cloud index was up 1.2%, small cap value stocks were up 0.8%.  Nasdaq…