Stocks Will Fall Further Only If This Is A Recession

Big Tuesday Rebound The stock market rebounded sharply on Tuesday as it was up 4.94%. This makes sense because it was very oversold on Monday. There was a point in the morning where stocks went negative, but by the afternoon, stocks gained momentum and rallied to the close. That’s been a theme with rallies in…

Small Business Confidence Stays High, But Coronavirus Looms

High Small Business Confidence? The government is working on helping small businesses deal with the coronavirus. Normally, the NFIB small business confidence index rising from 104.3 to 104.5, which is in the top 10th percentile in the 46 year history of this report, is a positive. But this just shows small firms didn’t see the negative…

7th Biggest Decline Since WWII

Massive Selloff To Start The Week The stock market fell the 7th most in one day since WWII. This is the 5th greatest decline many have ever seen. As you can see in the table below, the 7.6% decline lagged the 1987 crash and the financial crisis. This crash is amazing because in context, the coronavirus doesn’t…

CEOs Call Stock Market Correction An Overreaction

CEO Confidence Is High? Let's review the details of the coronavirus, valuations, and the decline in rates. Skittishness in markets is potentially unlike anything we have seen in the last 10 years. Last year, CEO confidence was pointed out by the bears as a signal of a recession. Low confidence needs to be combined with…

Another Wild Friday As Stocks Avoid The Worst Declines

Another Crazy Friday Friday’s market was exactly like the previous Friday in that stocks were down sharply and exploded into the close. It’s common to hear chatter about investors not wanting to own risk assets into the weekend. But the reality is short sellers don’t want to be betting against stocks into the weekend. They…

Coronavirus Has No Impact On The Labor Market In February

Huge Difference In Services PMIs February ISM services PMI was so strong that it was the equivalent to 3% GDP growth. By the way, the Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast was updated on Friday. It shows 3.1% GDP growth in Q1. If it wasn’t for the coronavirus, 2020 would have been a turnaround year. Q1 growth…

Chinese Stock Market Is Up 19% Year To Date

Another Big Down Day S&P 500 fell 3.39% on Thursday as volatility continued to wreak havoc on Wall Street. VIX rose to 7.63 points 39.62 as it is closing it on its high last week. Now, the market will likely test its correction low in the next couple days. But if you have a time…

Coronavirus Starts To Impact Economic Data

Markit Manufacturing PMI Falls Markit manufacturing report from February showed business is starting to wane as the coronavirus catalyzes a slowdown in global growth. PMI fell from 51.9 to 50.7. Good news is this is only a tick lower than the flash reading. It's surprising that activity didn’t decelerate quicker in the 2nd half of the…

Massive Rally In Stocks & Treasuries Finally Fall

Another Huge Move In Markets As Stocks Surge Wednesday had yet another awe-inspiring move in stocks and bonds as the S&P 500 rose 4.22% and there were many volatility clusters. However, if the market avoids another big decline, we will see a return to normalcy where stocks grind higher. The chart below shows how unusual…

Supply Chain Hit By Coronavirus

Bullard Talks Down March Fed Decision Fed did an emergency cut on Tuesday. Questions are now being asked about the March 18th meeting as we only have a couple more days before the Fed’s quiet period starts (Friday). When asked about future Fed action Bullard stated, “We certainly can keep our options open there, but since…

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