Santa Clause Rally Brought About By Euphoric Traders

Euphoria Brings Another Record High For Stocks Investors and traders are getting euphoric as they are completely ignoring the bad economic data and hoping there will be a trade deal and a cyclical recovery. Normally, I'd agree with the bull thesis. But even I’m having trouble with grasping how much stocks have rallied in the…

Retail Sales Growth & Consumer Comfort Fall

Jobless Claims Spike Bears may have gotten excited by the spike in jobless claims, but it is irrelevant. It doesn’t mean anything bad is happening to the economy. Especially just because a few states including the large states of Pennsylvania and California estimated their results. If results are estimated, they can be incorrect.  We will…

Overbought Signals - Yet S&P 500 Hits Another Record High

S&P 500 Somehow Hits Another Record High The stock market has hit stall speed in the past few days as it has barely moved. Extremely overbought levels haven’t catalyzed a correction like many expected. Not that there have been any big increases in the past few days either. In the past 5 trading days, the…

Household Debt Is Likely Not An Issue For The US Economy

Household Debt Increases $92 Billion Q3 NY Fed household debt and credit report was released this week. It’s a great look at the health of the consumer even though it’s a bit dated. We’re trying to figure out how strong holiday spending will be and this report is from the summer. That being said, usually…

Disney Increases 7.32% On Successful Disney+ Launch

Another Relatively Flat Day: Stocks Refuse To Correct S&P 500 has been nearly flat for the past 4 days. It increased 7 basis points on Wednesday. That was enough for a new record high. When investors discuss the stock market having a horizontal correction, they don’t envision new record highs being hit consistently. The market…

Medical Care Services Inflation Matches Cycle High (5.1%)

Housing Market Might Be Fine Housing market is pivotal because business investment is weak. Currently, the economy can’t handle another blow as GDP growth already might be below 1% in Q4. And, the housing market ended its 7 quarter decline in Q3. It should be strong in Q4 at least. Even with the increase in…

24 Days Without Back To Back Losses

Still Overbought The stock market fell 0.2% on Veteran’s Day and increased 0.16% on Tuesday which means it is still overbought. S&P 500 would have been up more on Tuesday if it wasn’t for President Trump’s comments on trade. That briefly put the S&P 500 in negative territory in the afternoon. Stocks recovered in the last…

Business Confidence Falls To A 3 Year Low

Redbook Same Store Sales Growth Falls In the week of November 9th, yearly same store sales growth in the Redbook report fell from 5.5% to 5%. That’s exactly in between the prior 2 weeks which had growth of 4.5% and 5.5%. It doesn’t seem like November has been a great month so far. But keep…

Global Euphoria In Markets

Time to Become Bearish? The stock market was extremely overbought entering this week, but rallied in 4 times as it increased 0.85%. However, the rally has only gotten more extreme. Which means we'll start seeing more bearish than many have recently been. Personally, I’m extremely bearish on the short term which I consider to be…

Q4 GDP Growth Expected To Be 0.73%

Consumer Credit Disappoints Monthly growth in consumer credit missed estimates sharply in September. In August, monthly growth was revised from $17.9 billion to $17.8 billion. As you can see in the chart below, there was only a $9.5 billion increase in consumer credit. It missed estimates for $15 billion, and missed the low end of…

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