7 Year Low In Home Price Growth

Stability Ends For Stocks As Politics Causes Modest Volatility On Tuesday, the S&P 500 fell the most in 1 month. Mostly because House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced an impeachment inquiry. It caused stocks to fall probably because of the uncertainty of the situation. Democrats control the House and the GOP controls the Senate. Which makes…

Tariff Worries Cause Consumers To Become Less Optimistic

Conference Board Confidence Wanes University of Michigan consumer confidence index and the Conference Board index showed vast differences in August. Especially since the former was much more pessimistic than the latter. These two have converged in September as the preliminary University of Michigan index improved slightly. And the Conference Board index cratered sharply. August Conference…

SPX Hovers Near 3,000 For 12 Days

Markets Take A Breather Unusual action in markets is that nothing is happening. S&P 500 - SPX has closed within 2% of 3,000 for 12 straight sessions. It makes sense for markets to pause because they are heading into a news laden month. In October, there is another Fed meeting, Q3 earnings season, the trade…

Employment Reading - Weakest In Almost 10 Years

Positive National Chicago Fed Reading Bears love to pick out the negative readings in the national Chicago Fed index and use them as evidence for a recession forecast. Anyone who has followed this report for a few months knows that’s not the correct way to look at it. Firstly, negative readings are common. Secondly, even…

Fall Trade Deal - What Are The Odds?

Trade News Sends Stocks Lower S&P 500 was up slightly Friday morning as it was very close to its record high. Then negative trade news came out which sent stocks down modestly. S&P 500 closed the day down 0.49%. I think these trade dealings work in trends. When you start to hear grumblings of negotiations…

Strong Housing Report - Another One Driven by Lower Rates

Slight Decline In Philly Fed Index Philly Fed manufacturing index fell slightly just like the Empire Fed index. It went from 16.8 to 12 which beat estimates by 1 point. As you can see from the chart below, the Philly Fed index and the average of the 5 key indexes are way above the ISM…

U.S. Economy Surprising To The Upside?

Stocks Mostly Flat On Thursday S&P 500 opened up, increased in the morning, and fell throughout the afternoon on Thursday. It closed the day almost exactly where it started. We need to wait another day for the S&P 500 to hit a new record high. It will likely happen soon. Stocks haven’t reacted much to…

Great Housing Starts & Permits: No Recession Soon

No 2019 Recession Because Of Housing Earlier this summer, many investors predicted real residential investment growth would finally get out of the doghouse it has been in for 6 quarters. And that it would also have a positive impact on Q3 GDP growth. Based on early indications from the Atlanta Fed GDP Nowcast, it looked…

Stocks End Flat After Fed Cuts Rates

Wild Action After Fed Statement: Stocks End Flat S&P 500 was down slightly before the Fed meeting. There wasn’t much of a reaction to the statement. Then Powell spoke which created volatility. S&P 500 bottomed at 2,981. Then it spiked in the last hour trading. It increased 0.85% to close the day up 3 basis…

Fed Cuts Rates For The 2nd Time In 2019

Fed Cuts Rates 25 Basis Points & Powell Gives No Signal For More Cuts The Fed cut rates once on Wednesday which is exactly what the market expected. Initially, there was no stock market reaction to the decision and statement. Then stocks sold off after Powell stated there wasn’t necessarily a plan to further cut…

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