Tariff Announcement Sends Stocks Cratering

Tariff Announcement - Volatile Thursday With a major Tariff Announcement - Thursday was one of the most interesting days of 2019 for markets. Stocks rallied on bad economic news and then sold off. Mostly because President Trump issued a new tariff on China. Right after the Fed was hawkish, the market immediately went back to…

Optimistic Consumers & Falling Home Price Growth

Optimistic Consumers - Very Large Consumer Confidence Improvement June is showing a spike in Optimistic Consumers. The June Conference Board consumer confidence index was revised higher from 121.5 to 124.3. Which makes sense considering how solid the retail sales report was. Even more impressively, the index exploded higher in July to 135.7. It beat estimates…

Yield Curve Flattens - Stocks Fall After Fed’s ‘One & Done’ Rate Cut

Yield Curve Flattens - Hawkish Fed Causes Stocks To Fall Yield Curve Flattens - as Fed’s hawkish cut caused the stock market to decline moderately on Wednesday. Which is exactly what you’d expect. The market was pricing in 2 more cuts by the end of the year. S&P 500 fell 1.09%, Nasdaq fell 1.19%, and…

Hawkish Cut - Fed Surprises Investors

Hawkish Cut A Hawkish Cut ended up surprising many investors. Fed’s rate cut on Wednesday included hawkish guidance. Even though the Fed stated it would end the unwind of its balance sheet in August. That's 2 months earlier than it previously stated. End of the unwind isn’t nearly as important as rate decisions. Rate cuts…

Apple Rallies 4.48% On Earnings Beat

Apple Rallies - Small Caps Outperform Sharply On the day before the Fed’s rate decision and the trading session before Apple Rallies reported, stocks mostly fell. Although small caps rallied. On Tuesday S&P 500 fell 0.26%, Nasdaq fell 0.24%, and Russell 2000 rose 1.06%. VIX increased 8.65%. It’s interesting to see that the KBW regional…

Core Inflation Low Enough For Fed Rate Cuts

Core Inflation Low - Beyond Meat Clarification Before getting into Core Inflation Low - I want to quickly clarify the facts on the Beyond Meat secondary. New capital raised represents 0.4% of equity. Decline the secondary caused the stock to have could be good news. It could get rid of the post-IPO squeeze. The management…

Beyond Meat Craters After It Announces A Secondary

Beyond Meat - Stocks Fall Ahead Of Fed Meeting Beyond Meat led the stock market to fall modestly on Monday. Investors await the Fed’s decision on Wednesday. We already know the Fed will cut rates once; stocks will react to the guidance. Investors are expecting a neutral cut because the recent labor and GDP reports…

Global Trade Falls 3rd Straight Quarter

Global Trade - Big Historical Revisions To GDP Global Trade ending up falling for the third straight quarter in a row. Q2 advanced GDP report like all advanced GDP readings was anticlimactic. Mostly because the results might not be close to the final readings. This is our best guess at GDP growth, rather than what…

Alphabet Drives Another New Record High For Stocks

Huge Friday Rally I am calling Friday’s rally “huge” because every point the market rallies, makes this an even more fantastic year. The S&P 500 was up 0.74% on Friday which means it is now up 20.7% year to date. This performance is over 1% better than the fantastic year that was 2017. The best…

Consumer Spending - Fantastic Growth Drives Q2 GDP

Kansas City Fed Index Falls Slightly We’ve seen a whirlwind of different manufacturing reports. Some reports were even shocking. The July Markit flash reading shows manufacturing output is falling at a 1% quarterly rate, while the June durable goods orders report showed core orders were up 2% yearly. The Philly Fed index rebounded sharply and…

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