FedEx Causes Investors To Worry About The Global Economy

Volatile Action On Tuesday Before we get into Fedex, let's review the markets. S&P 500 fell just one basis point on Tuesday, but there were wild swings during the trading session as investors prepared their portfolios for the Fed meeting on Wednesday. From the peak at 12:15pm to the trough at 3:45pm, stocks fell 0.92%.…

India To Emerge As Global Growth Leader

India - Leaders Of The Economy The table below shows Oxford Economics’ estimates of the 10 year annual growth rates of the top 10 emerging market economies. India is projected to surpass China’s population in 2024. It will be the driver of global economic growth that China was in the past 10 years. Emerging markets…

Record Closing High - S&P 500 Just 3.34% From It

Record Closing High - Stocks Close In On Record S&P 500 increased 0.37% on Monday which means it is just 3.34% off its record high. The S&P 500 is up 1.74% in March and 13.01% year to date. It is on pace to have its best first quarter since 1998.  Also, it is almost up…

Consumer Sentiment Gives Off Potential Recessionary Signal

Consumer Sentiment - Number Of IPOs Has Cratered Consumer Sentiment - The number of IPOs has fallen sharply since the mid to late 1990s when internet firms were going public quickly. Public investors had access to a plethora of start ups which weren’t profitable. These were the Venture Capital opportunities of today.  While the 1990s…

Apple To Launch News & Streaming Service March 25th

Apple - S&P 500 Breaks Out Of Range Before getting into Apple, let's review the market. S&P 500 increased 14 points to 2,822.48 on Friday. That is higher than the previous 4 attempts at hitting the September record high. The market has broken through that resistance and is now focused on the record high. S&P…

Leading Index Perks Up Signaling Slowdown End Is Near

Leading Index - Weekly Index’ Growth Rate Improves Substantially Before I review the latest economic reports, let’s look at the big jump in the ECRI leading index’s growth rate. It is one of the most important factors in my analysis of the economy.  As you can see from the chart below, the yearly growth rate…

Global Semiconductor Sales Signal A Recession In 6 Months

Global Semiconductor Sales - Slight Decline Ends 3 Day Winning Streak The stock market fell slightly, ending its 3 day winning streak. S&P 500 fell 9 basis points, Nasdaq fell 0.16%, and Russell 2000 fell 0.4%. This slight decline maintains the narrative that the S&P 500 can’t get above this ceiling which is a little bit…

Inflation Won’t Cause The Fed To Hike Rates

Inflation Estimates Fall Inflation estimates for 2019 were much higher 6 months ago than they are now. Economists see the writing on the wall. Inflation won’t be a problem in 2019, and the Fed definitely won’t raise rates. Economists didn’t see the slowdown coming and they thought rising nominal wage growth would generate inflation.  Phillips…

S&P500 Range In The 2,800 For The 5th Time In 6 Months

S&P500 Range - Back Again So Soon? S&P 500 was up 0.69% on Wednesday as it now is on a 3 day winning streak after coming off a 5 day losing streak. In those 3 days, the S&P 500 has gotten back all the losses from last week and more. The S&P 500 is now at…

Utilities More Than Double S&P 500 Returns Since February 1st

Utilities - Economic Review Economic growth should be strong in 2019 based on the strength of the consumer as real wage growth is at a cyclical high. GDP growth might not be great in Q1.  Even though wage growth has been strong, there was a scare from the government shutdown which curtailed spending. If the…

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