Is The Crypto Craze Over?

Bitcoin Crashes Over 30% The crash in bitcoin is starting to look like something more than a minor setback like we’ve seen in the past few weeks. It has fallen a more than $6,000 from its peak at $19,661 which is highlighted in the chart below. I think this is a great thing for stock…

Bitcoin Falls By $4,000

No Government Shutdown The deadline for the spending bill was December 22nd. If nothing passed there would be a government shutdown. On Thursday, the government averted this issue as the House passed another short term spending bill which lasts until January 19th. This means there won’t be volatility in the next week, but it also means…

Amazon Just Getting Started Suppressing Inflation?

What Will Firms Do With The Extra Cash? With the tax cuts passing today, there have been some firms announcing pay increases and investments. It’s easy to get caught up in anecdotal evidence from headlines. The chart below gives you a more complete picture of what firms are likely to do with the extra money.…

Valuations Pass The 1929 Bull Market Peak

Copper Bounces Off The Lows In a previous article, a couple weeks ago I discussed how copper’s decline didn’t mean you should get worried about the global economy. Sure enough, the price of copper, which you can see in the chart below, has rallied sharply back to where it started the selloff in October. Now…

Euroskeptics Trending In Italy

2018 Italian Elections The Italian election must be held no later than May 20th. Therefore, it will be held in March, April, or May. It has been surprising to see the Euroskeptic movement gain so much momentum considering the relative strength of the overall economy. If the economy was weak and Sicily saw even more weakness,…

30 Year Futures Show Excessive Bullishness

People Think Their Taxes Will Be Raised, But They Won’t It's always interesting when vast swaths of people believe something that isn’t true. One example of this is the FOMO involved in cryptocurrencies. The total valuation of all the coins is $606 billion. It’s difficult to rationalize that valuation, but most speculators don’t care. They…

Modi Wins State Elections, Stabilizing The Indian Markets

Financials Do Well When The 10 Year Yield Rises We’ve discussed which sectors do well when the yield curve flattens. Now let’s look at which sectors do well when the 10 year bond yield goes up. The 10 year bond has gone up 45% of the time since 2010. I think inflation will increase in…

GOP Senate Has The Votes To Pass The Tax Cut

Analysts Have A Great 2017 Analysts get a lot of flak when they get caught changing their price targets and recommendations after an earnings surprise. I sometimes criticize them to make sure investors know not to take their word as gospel. If you are a beginner, you might think the 12 month price targets are…

The Middle Class & Poor Haven’t Recovered From The Financial Crisis

The Poor Have A Negative Net Worth In a previous article we discussed how populism could rise in 2017. If you’re career is going well, you might be detached from the plight of some in the lower class. The charts below help you understand their recent woes. It shows the changes in net worth in…

Will 2018 See A Rally Based On Tax Cuts?

GOP Agrees On A Tax Plan Senator Marco Rubio and Senator Bob Corker announced they support the latest tax plan which gives it enough votes to pass. The final vote will be on Tuesday, but at this point the decision is known. This helped the stock market rally briskly on Friday. The S&P 500 was up 0.9%…