Consumer Spending Growth Hits A 5 Week Low
Markit Flash PMI Improves Markit is being criticized because its July flash PMI reading showed no change in the economy which normally implies the economy is fine. However, now it means there wasn’t improvement. Most data actually shows the economy is getting worse on a rate of change basis. This isn’t like a normal slowdown…
Investment Managers Are All In On Stocks
Big Time Selloff In The Big Internet Names Nasdaq was down 2.29% on Thursday. It might end its streak of avoiding back to back losses on Friday, tying it with the record. July has been a bad month for the tech sector. Momentum names have hit a wall and the big internet stocks have lagged.…
First Initial Jobless Claims Increase Since March
Yet Another Terrible Jobless Claims Report We've now had terrible jobless claims reports for 6 weeks, as the report on Thursday was poor yet again. Now people are starting to notice because seasonally adjusted claims rose for the first time since the peak on March 28th just as predicted. T echnically, the streak ended last week…
Nasdaq Hasn’t Fallen On Back To Back Days Since Mid-May
Near Record Long Streak Without 2 Down Days Nasdaq hasn’t had 2 down days in a row in 48 days. Last 2 day losing streak was mid May as you can see from the chart below. That’s around the time the momentum tech stocks started outperforming the cyclical stocks. It’s amazing there was never such…
Labor Market In A Tailspin?
There Will Be Job Losses In July Now that we are far enough into July and have enough data, we can predict there will be job losses in the July BLS report. To be clear, the stock market has already priced that in. It’s easier than usual to predict where the economy is headed because…
Gold Approaches A Record High
Gold & Silver Explode On Tuesday, gold, the S&P 500, bonds, and the VIX rallied. It was a bonanza. Europe passed a $2 trillion COVID-19 stimulus package which helped gold and silver explode higher. As you can see from the chart below, on Tuesday afternoon, the GLD had a 14 day RSI of 71.55 signaling…
Consumer Spending Weak In 2nd Half Of July
Same Store Sales Growth Falls Every common consumer sentiment indicator shows weakness in July. Therefore, it’s no surprise that Redbook same store sales growth in the week of July 18th was -7.5% which fell from last week’s -5.5%. Some consumers likely are pulling back spending in anticipation of their $600 weekly unemployment checks going away. Congress…
Tech Bubble Returns On Monday: Amazon Rises 8%
Huge Sector Rotation Back To Momentum Monday had a massive swing back to the momentum tech stocks that were hurt last week, which is why last week’s decline was meaningless. Just because we had bubble-like activity followed by a decline doesn’t mean the rally is over. That’s what makes market timing difficult. If we could…
Traders Are Very Confident In The Government
Stimulus Debate Starts The stock market is anticipating a stimulus passing. This situation is a bit different from typical political expectations because the market is 100% certain one will pass. If you just looked at the tape, you wouldn’t even realize the economy could implode without a stimulus. The stock market is pricing in a…
Momentum Tech Stocks Have A Rough Week
Another Miss Of The June High It’s tough to say if it matters that the S&P 500 keeps missing surpassing the June 8th high. Every day that it doesn’t make a new high, the more important that high becomes. And the market was up 0.28% which put it just 24 basis points away from the high.…
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