Global Recession - 92.11% Chance We’re In One

Global Recession - Stocks Fall Slightly The stock market fell slightly on Monday as the S&P 500 fell 0.34%, the Nasdaq fell 0.94%, and the Russell 2000 fell 1.01%. I consider this a healthy decline because it’s much softer than the violent action in December. The market was overbought heading into this 2 day decline.…

CFOs and Forecasters Differ On 2019 Recession

CFOs and Forecasters - Ignore Them & Most Of The Financial Press It’s interesting how forecasts for recessions work. Every time there is a volatile market or economic data weakens, the media asks a perma bear, who has been predicting doom for years, to do an interview. The bearish prognosticator states the bearish case with…

Longest Government Shutdown Ever To Hurt Q1 GDP Growth

Longest Government Shutdown - Winning Streak Ends, But Stocks Had A Good Week The S&P 500 was down 1 basis point on Friday, so it ended its 5 day winning streak. That's a great performance because the market rebounded from where it was earlier in the day and is overbought. Nasdaq fell 0.21% and the…

Government Shutdown Causes Q1 GDP Growth Estimates To Fall

Government Shutdown - 5 Day Winning Streak The stock market is on fire as the S&P 500 is on a 5 day winning streak. It was up 0.45% on Thursday. The 14 day RSI has gone from below 20 on December 24th to 52.08. It’s on its way to signaling the market is overbought. CNN fear and…

Jobless Claims Fall To 216,000: Signaling Strong Labor Market

Jobless Claims - Inflation Expectations In November, I started discussing how the Fed didn’t need to hike rates in December or in 2019 because inflation was cratering. Now is a great time to be a worker because inflation is falling and wage growth is rising. The labor market is filling up which means many people…

Fed Acknowledges Risk Factors In Minutes

Fed - Stocks Are Getting Overbought Before getting into the Fed, let's review the market. With the 0.41% rally in the S&P 500, the index reached a 4 day winning streak on Wednesday. More importantly, the S&P 500 is up 9.95% since the bottom on Christmas Eve. The stock market is now overbought in my…

Millennials Face High Student Loan Debt & Expensive Housing

Millennials - Weak Wage Growth Coming? The December jobs report blew away expectations and provided fuel for the massive quick rally off the lows in late December. There’s no question that the labor market is strong because jobless claims are low and the previous two months were revised to show more jobs were created. The…

Stocks - Biggest Reversal Since March 2009

Stocks - Biggest Reversal - Continue Rallying On Tuesday Stocks continued their rally off the Christmas Eve bottom on Tuesday as the S&P 500 increased 0.97%. The S&P 500 is now up 9.5% from the Christmas Eve low. Many prominent technical analysts would probably tell you stocks can’t bottom on a low volume day like Christmas…

Q1 2019 EPS Growth Expected To Be 5.02%

Q1 2019 EPS Growth - The Cyclicals Are Cheap Relative To The S&P 500 The chart below is shocking because the forward PE of cyclicals versus the forward PE of the S&P 500 is much lower than it has been since 1980. There are a few takeaways from this metric. The most obvious one is cheap…

Wage Growth - Strongest Production Non-Supervisory Since 2009

Wage Growth - December Wage Growth Was Strong The December labor report was strong across the board. Specifically, construction added 38,000 jobs, retail trade added 24,000. Trade & transportation added 34,000, and professional & business added 43,000 jobs. Average hourly earnings growth was 0.4% month over month which beat estimates for 0.3% and last month’s…