Trade War - Negative Impacts

Trade War - Soybean Inspections It’s very important to avoid listening to cynics who claim soybeans aren’t important. They are America’s largest export to China. The trade war between China and American appears to be getting worse. It’s important to follow this commodity closely. America has a mixed economy while China has a command economy.…

Modest Stocks Rebound Ends A Terrible Week

Modest Stocks Rebound - A Mini Recovery The stock market recovered on Friday after having two terrible days. In bull markets stocks recover slowly. In bear markets stocks recover quickly and then lose more value even quicker. Fiercest rallies are in bear markets because traders fall into the trap of thinking the bear market is…

Stocks Bounce Usually After A Decline Like This

Stocks Bounce - Time To Buy Stocks Sentiment on stocks has shifted so quickly the S&P 500 went from being overbought to oversold in a few trading days. The CNN Fear and Greed index bottomed at 6 out of 100 which signals extreme fear. That doesn’t mean stocks will increase over the next 12 months.…

Stocks Oversold At Extremes

Stocks Oversold - Another Down Day The stock market had another weak trading session on Thursday. The S&P 500 fell 2.06% and the Russell 2000 fell 1.91%. On the bright side, some of the hardest hit groups outperformed. The Nasdaq only fell 1.25%. EEM emerging markets ETF fell 1.01%.  Facebook stock rose 1.3%. I’m not…

S&P 500 Falls The Most Since February | Nasdaq 100 Falls 4.44%

S&P 500 Falls - Big Correction On Wednesday The stock market cratered on Wednesday. The Dow fell 3.16%, the Nasdaq fell 4.08%, the Russell 2000 fell 2.86%, and the S&P 500 fell 3.29%. You can see the daily changes in all four indexes in the charts below. This was the biggest decline since February. There…

Hurricane Michael Hits Florida As A Category 4 Storm

Hurricane Michael Makes Landfall In a few days, hurricane Michael went from nothing to a storm with 155 mile per hour winds. Unlike hurricane Florence, the winds increased as it went ashore. The good news is this is a quick moving, small storm. The hurricane force winds only extended for 30 miles. The flooding from…

Small Caps Underperform In October & Materials Crater On Tuesday

Small Caps Continue Downtrend - Flat Market The S&P 500 fell 0.14% which puts it in a 4 day losing streak. There’s not much to make of this losing streak. The S&P 500 is near its record high. In fact, its outperformance of small caps is more notable than this mini losing streak. The Russell…

IMF Report - 2019 U.S. GDP Growth Expected To Fall To 2.5%

IMF Report Wrong On 2017 Forecasts The IMF Report offers delayed projections which means it confirms data trends we’ve been seeing for months. It’s a great summary of world growth since I don’t cover every country’s economy in my articles.  Some people mistakenly view IMF Report forecasts as always being wrong. Skeptics might say the…

Wage Growth Momentum Is Still Strong

Wage Growth Momentum - Strong Wage Growth In previous articles I have discussed how strong wage growth catalyzed the increase in the 10 year yield in the past few weeks. Technically, average hourly wage growth missed estimates on a year over year basis as it fell from 2.9% to 2.8%. But this was another strong…

Housing Price Index Signals Pain

Housing Price Index - More Weakness In The Housing Market Coming? The ECRI leading home price index is yet another indicator on the housing market which has gone negative. Higher interest rates are hurting home prices. And, the weakness in housing can easily lead to lower rates as economic growth slows. People’s primary house is…