Record High For The Nasdaq

Technical Break Out For Stocks Even though the S&P 500 only rallied 0.45% and the Nasdaq only rallied 0.69%, this was one of the best days of the year for the market because it was a break out. The Nasdaq hit a record high as Apple, Amazon, and Microsoft drove the index higher with record…

Earnings Growth For Q2 Expected To Be 18.9%

Great Earnings Coming in Q2 The financial media acts as if the earnings reporting season is the only time that earnings matter and acts as if stocks beat estimates they should move higher. Those are incomplete understandings of earnings. Firms are expected to beat estimates, so raising guidance and beating the whisper number are more…

Stocks Rally On Strong Jobs Report

Stocks Still Range Bound The stock market rallied sharply on Friday because of the great jobs report. The S&P 500 was up 1.08% and the Nasdaq was up 1.51%. It’s very rare to see the stock market rise and oil fall, but that’s what happened on Friday as WTI fell 3% to $65.81. The spread…

Core Inflation Is Just 1.8%

Inflation Stays Moderate On Wednesday, the Fed’s Beige Book said inflation was moderate in most districts. That was a reflection of past data. I mention this because the latest Personal Income and Outlays report shows the previous trends have continued. As you can see from the chart below, the year over year PCE was 2%…

Stocks Fall On Fears Of A Trade War

Italian Situation Resolved Global market action has been unreal this week. As you can see from the chart below, the Italian 2 year bond had a panic moment where it went from a negative yield to almost 3%. Now it has fallen back to below 1% in just 2 days as traders act as if…

Stocks Rally, Forgetting About The Italian Political Crisis

Fed No Longer Too Dovish There was so much happening on Tuesday, I didn’t get to the effect the Italian political drama had on the Fed funds futures. The Fed funds futures were leaning towards 4 rate hikes in 2018 up until the Fed Minutes which dampened the market a bit. Still, the Fed pushing…

Trump-Kim Meeting Will Occur On June 12th

June 12th Meeting With South Korea Back On On Tuesday, the White House announced the Trump-Kim summit on June 12th in Singapore is back on, reversing the claim made last week that it was cancelled. The actual language was that the meeting is “expected.” It seems like it will happen, but the term ‘expected’ implies…

Italian Political Risk Causes U.S. Treasury Buying

Huge Day For The Political Headlines Tuesday wasn’t a great day for investors who are only focused on the fundamentals of the American economy and earnings as political risk was the star of the show as 3 major news events occurred today which affected the markets. First, the Italian President rejected the economic minister proposed…

18.17% Earnings Growth Expected In Q2 2018

Great Q1 Earnings: Potential Headwinds Q1 2018 earnings growth was 24.68%. As I have documented for the past few weeks, this quarter has been unlike the historical average as growth estimates improved dramatically and the heightened expectations were beat. EPS estimates were raised heading into this quarter for the first time in 7 years. Therefore,…

Oil Down 4%, Dollar Hits 6 Month High

Oil Crashes On Friday The stock market sold off modestly on Friday as the S&P 500 was down 0.24% and the Nasdaq was up 0.13%. The oil market was hit hard as WTI oil fell 4% to $67.88. This was based on reports that OPEC and non-OPEC nations could increase supply. That was WTI’s worst…