Atlanta Fed Sees 1.7% Q4 GDP Growth (New Home Sales Were Strong)

GDP Nowcast Revised Much Higher Q4 GDP growth has changed dramatically partially because of the recent advanced indicators reports. We have good news on trade, housing, and inventories which means GDP growth is on pace to be closer to 2% rather than below 1%. This was reflected in the Wednesday update of the Atlanta Fed…

Overbought Market Cranks out Another Record High

Another Record High: Santa Clause Euphoria The stock market rose again on Tuesday as the S&P 500 is now up 25.28% year to date, making this the best year since 2013. CNN fear and greed index fell 1 point to 69 which is greed. But don’t let that make you think stocks aren’t overbought. VIX…

Q4 GDP Growth Expectations Will Rise

Kansas City Fed Index Stays Slightly Negative November Kansas City Fed manufacturing index which came out last Friday was at -3 which is the same as the previous month. The chart below includes all the regional Fed indexes. As you can see, with 5 indexes included, the regional Fed data implies the ISM PMI will…

New Record High As Stocks End Mini Correction

Mini Correction Over A correction is a smaller version of a bear market. The mini correction was even smaller than that. It was a 3 day decline that totaled less than 1%. It’s now over as the S&P 500 rallied 0.75% on Monday. It was a great day for stocks. Even though the Dallas Fed’s…

Consumer Will Prevent A Q4 Recession

No Recession In Q4: Strong Consumer If this is a recession, no one told consumers. A key takeaway from the November consumer sentiment report is the economy isn’t in a recession now. Consumer spending growth should be solid in November and December. Many think the best chance of negative GDP growth is in Q4 2019…

Santa Clause Rally & Tesla’s Cybertruck Flub

Stocks Recover On Friday After Solid PMI Sometimes we’ve seen the stock market ignore big economic data. It wouldn't be surprising if the stock market ignored the Markit report because it usually follows the ISM report closer. However, on Friday stocks increased slightly as they should of after the encouraging Markit PMI. Flash reading, which…

Markit PMI Increases: No Q4 Recession?

Solid October Existing Home Sales Many predicted strong results from the existing and new home sales reports this week. October existing home sales reading missed estimates, but increased from September. This was a good report. Sales increased from 5.36 million to 5.46 million which is a 1.9% increase which missed estimates by 20,000.  Last month’s…

Janet Yellen Fears A Recession?

S&P 500 In A 3 Day Losing Streak S&P 500 fell again on Thursday as the market finally makes sense again. After being very overbought, a sense of normalcy has returned. S&P 500 was down 0.16% on Thursday which means it is still within 1% of its record high. It’s still nice to see the…

Yearly Leading Indicators Growth Barely Positive

Jobless Claims Stay Modestly Elevated Last week jobless claims rose. Claims were revised higher by 2,000 to 227,000. Estimates didn’t change anything. Furthermore, the number of claims in the latest report showed the increase stayed (no states were estimates in this report). There were 227,000 claims again which was 10,000 above the consensus. So there…

Stocks Fall On Worries About Phase 1 Of the Trade Deal

Finally, A Small Decline The stock market finally had a significant down day. It wasn’t a huge down day, but the streak of days without back to back losses ended. S&P 500 was down 0.38%. Somehow VIX was down 8 basis points as it fell to 12.38.  So its streak of being below 15 continued. …