Household Debt Is Likely Not An Issue For The US Economy
Household Debt Increases $92 Billion Q3 NY Fed household debt and credit report was released this week. It’s a great look at the health of the consumer even though it’s a bit dated. We’re trying to figure out how strong holiday spending will be and this report is from the summer. That being said, usually…
Disney Increases 7.32% On Successful Disney+ Launch
Another Relatively Flat Day: Stocks Refuse To Correct S&P 500 has been nearly flat for the past 4 days. It increased 7 basis points on Wednesday. That was enough for a new record high. When investors discuss the stock market having a horizontal correction, they don’t envision new record highs being hit consistently. The market…
Medical Care Services Inflation Matches Cycle High (5.1%)
Housing Market Might Be Fine Housing market is pivotal because business investment is weak. Currently, the economy can’t handle another blow as GDP growth already might be below 1% in Q4. And, the housing market ended its 7 quarter decline in Q3. It should be strong in Q4 at least. Even with the increase in…
24 Days Without Back To Back Losses
Still Overbought The stock market fell 0.2% on Veteran’s Day and increased 0.16% on Tuesday which means it is still overbought. S&P 500 would have been up more on Tuesday if it wasn’t for President Trump’s comments on trade. That briefly put the S&P 500 in negative territory in the afternoon. Stocks recovered in the last…
Business Confidence Falls To A 3 Year Low
Redbook Same Store Sales Growth Falls In the week of November 9th, yearly same store sales growth in the Redbook report fell from 5.5% to 5%. That’s exactly in between the prior 2 weeks which had growth of 4.5% and 5.5%. It doesn’t seem like November has been a great month so far. But keep…
Global Euphoria In Markets
Time to Become Bearish? The stock market was extremely overbought entering this week, but rallied in 4 times as it increased 0.85%. However, the rally has only gotten more extreme. Which means we'll start seeing more bearish than many have recently been. Personally, I’m extremely bearish on the short term which I consider to be…
Q4 GDP Growth Expected To Be 0.73%
Consumer Credit Disappoints Monthly growth in consumer credit missed estimates sharply in September. In August, monthly growth was revised from $17.9 billion to $17.8 billion. As you can see in the chart below, there was only a $9.5 billion increase in consumer credit. It missed estimates for $15 billion, and missed the low end of…
10 Year Yield Nears 2% As Expected
Huge Day For Markets Because Of Trade Reports Positive news on trade pushed the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to new record highs and the 10 year yield much higher. It nearly hit my 2% target. That was quicker than expected. S&P 500 was up decently for most of the day, but lost some steam in…
Only 21% Of Americans Say It’s A Good Time To Buy A House
Productivity Growth Falls & Unit Labor Cost Growth Rises In Q3, productivity growth fell and unit labor costs rose. That’s good for workers and bad for profit margins. We are now in the longest margin contraction in post war history as NIPA profit margins have fallen for 4.5 years. It’s unusual for margins to fall…
Equities Rally Is Global
Market Stays Overbought Wednesday was the reverse of Tuesday. On Tuesday the S&P 500 was the only major index that fell. And on Wednesday it was the only one to increase. S&P 500 was up 7 basis points on Wednesday. VIX fell 0.48 to 12.62 which signals high complacency. Stocks are up modestly since investors…
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