ECB Announced It Will End Asset Purchases In December

ECB Balance Sheet Decision Made I’ve reviewed all the parts of the bear market checklist above which are currently occurring. Now let’s review the parts of the checklist which will occur in the rest of 2018. The first one is growing central bank balance sheets will transition to shrinking balance sheets. This is probably true…

Curve Flattens After Rate Hike: Signaling 2020 Recession

Market Reaction To Fed Hikes This was probably the biggest week of the year for the market in terms of news events as we had the Trump-Kim summit, the Fed meeting, and the ECB meeting which will be on Thursday. With 2 of the 3 major events having occurred, plus the CPI report on Tuesday, the stock…

A Hawkish Hike Pushes The Stock Market Lower

Fed Raises Rates Like Expected The Fed raised rates 20 basis points like the market expected. However, the unexpected part was the change to guidance. This is a situation where a small change made a big difference. The Fed went from 6 officials thinking there should be 3 hikes this year and 6 Fed members…

North Korean Drama Over- CPI Meets Estimates

North Korean Summit Ends The stock market didn’t have much of a reaction to the North Korean summit on Tuesday in Singapore, but that could be considered a good thing as the missile launches that occurred last year won’t return and hurt stocks in the intermediate term. I was wrong to imply everything would be…

Stocks Rally As They Await The Fed Decision

Stocks Rally Slightly & Curve Flattens With the North Korean news in the rear-view mirror and the Fed meeting ahead, the stock market rallied slightly on Tuesday. The Russell 2000 was up 0.46% and the Nasdaq was up 0.57%. The S&P 500 was up 0.17% which brought it to 2,786.85. That is less than 1 point…

Stocks Wait For The Big News Events To Occur This Week

Slightly Positive Monday Monday’s trading action was what you’d expect from a market anxiously waiting for big new events to unfold later in the week. The S&P 500 was up 0.11% which 4.57 points off the March high. The S&P 500 almost crossed above that point, but there was a minor selloff at the end of…

Investors Are Becoming Optimistic (Not Good)

Optimism Is Here I’m strongly in the camp which expects the S&P 500 to break its all-time high opposed to forming a double top. I’m not big on technical analysis, but that would be a scary chart pattern if it occurred. However, even though I’m still bullish on the stock market in the near term,…

S&P 400 Hits A Record High

Another Rally- Stocks Are On Fire On Friday stocks had an across the board rally as all major indexes went up. The S&P 400, which is a mid cap index, hit an all-time high as it was up 0.5%. The S&P 500 outperformed the Nasdaq and Russell 2000 as it was up 0.31%. The S&P…

10 Year Treasury Yield Has A Mini Crash

Reversal Thursday I mentioned after Wednesday’s stock market close that the tech stocks and the small caps were overbought. We saw a reversal of the recent trading action on Thursday as the Dow and the S&P 500 outperformed the Nasdaq and Russell 2000. The big caps rallied after underperforming this year. McDonald’s led the Dow…

More Job Openings Than Unemployed Workers

Kicking The Can Down The Road With the recent acceleration in economic growth, the new trend is analysts at the major investment banks pushing off their recession prognostications by a year or two. When the economy falters, it’s very easy to call for a recession because this cycle is about to be the longest since…