Caterpillar & Nvidia Send Stocks Lower

Caterpillar - Stocks Fall Monday Stocks finally took a breather on Monday as they fell modestly. S&P 500 fell 0.78%, the Nasdaq fell 1.11%, and the Russell 2000 fell 0.63%. Equities were on a 5 week winning streak heading into Monday as the S&P 500 was up 6.3% year to date. Stocks still need to fall further…

Government Shutdown To Hurt Q1 GDP Growth By 0.4%

Government Shutdown - Potential Effects The government shutdown might resume on February 15th. As for now, the CBO released the potential effects from the shutdown on past and future GDP growth. Negative impact on Q4 GDP growth will be 0.2% and the negative impact on Q1 will be 0.4%. Government Shutdown - Reports Still Delayed It’s…

S&P 500 On Pace To Increase Over 100% In 2019

S&P 500 - Massive 2019 Rally Continues 2019 has been a spectacular year for stocks as the S&P 500 is up 6.3%. If the stock market were to go up 6.3% every month it would be up 108% for the year. We know that’s almost impossible. The goal is to highlight how great this month has…

Stocks Ignore Trade War & Government Shutdown For Now

Stocks - Slight Rally Despite Trade Woes Many the stock market is overbought. The logic to buying stocks took a hit on Thursday, but they still rallied modestly. S&P 500 was up 0.14%, the Nasdaq was up 0.68%, and the Russell 2000 was up 0.7%. VIX’s 3.23% decline helped push the CNN fear and greed…

Jobless Claims Fall 13,000 Despite Government Shutdown

Jobless Claims Fall To 199,000 The jobless claims report is a leading indicator for the economy and helps us understand how the monthly BLS report will look. Lately it has been an extremely important metric that has been followed closely because it was strong during the stock market decline in December and remains strong now…

 Dow Stocks - 3 Lead Market Higher

Dow Stocks - Market Rallies Slightly On Dow Earnings On Wednesday, three Dow firms reported earnings that sent their stocks up. That lifted the Dow by 0.7% and even helped the S&P 500 gain 0.22%. Nasdaq was up 8 basis points and the Russell 2000 was down 0.22%. The minor rally and the 6.15% decline…

Q1 2019 EPS Growth Expected To Be Just 3.55%

Q1 2019 - Earnings Estimates Start To Fall Off A Cliff The stock market is rallying way too much compared to how much earnings estimates are falling. As you can see from the table below, Q1 EPS growth estimates have fallen from 5.54% at the start of the year to just 3.55% as of January 23rd.…

Trade Meeting Between China & America Canceled

Trade Meeting - Weak Tuesday The stock market fell sharply on Tuesday. It was overbought, and the existing home sales report was shockingly bad. Also, the White House canceled the trade meeting with China. S&P 500 was down 1.42%, Nasdaq was down 1.91%, and Russell 2000 was down 1.69%. I don’t think the government shutdown…

Philly Fed - Non-Manufacturing Index Craters To Lowest Level Since October 2011

Philly Fed - What The ECRI Leading Index Means For Stocks Previously, we looked at how stocks act when the ECRI leading index is down 6% or more for the first time in 12 months. That analysis makes sense in this specific situation because the index recently fell over 6% year over year. ECRI also has a…

S&P 500 - Recent Gains In The 99th Percentile

S&P 500 - The Incredible Rally Continues The rally this year has been relentless and unbelievable. It has wiped out the shorts who were calling for a recession in 2019. The S&P 500 is now up 6.54% year to date as it has surpassed many year end forecasts within the first month. On Friday the S&P…