Consumption Growth Disappoints, Sending Q3 GDP Growth Estimates Lower
Real Consumption Growth Falls In August, real disposable personal income growth was solid, but real consumption growth weakened. That signals a decline in confidence as was shown in the August University of Michigan report. Consumption growth in the PCE report wasn’t consistent with the solid retail sales report. As you can see from the chart…
China and America To Meet In D.C. On October 10th & 11th
Slight Decline On Thursday: Peloton IPOs Stocks declined slightly on Thursday, although, I think they would have risen if the news about the timing of the U.S. China talks had come out before the close. Specifically, the S&P 500 fell 0.24% which put it near where it has been for most of the month. One…
Pending Home Sales Increase In August
Another Great Housing Market Report Yet another solid housing market report came out in the Pending Home Sales index. The July reading wasn’t that great as the index fell 2.5% to 105.6. But the August index was strong as it increased 1.6% to 107.3. This makes it look like the new home sales report as…
SPY Starting To Price In A President Warren?
Stocks Regain Impeachment Inquiry Losses It’s no surprise stocks rallied on Wednesday, regaining their impeachment related losses. The market doesn’t see President Trump being removed from office, so it isn’t selling off. As you can see from the table below, the returns after Nixon and Clinton were impeached were much different. You can either say…
New Home Sales Strike Fear In The Hearts Of The Bears
Another Solid MBA Mortgage Applications Report In the week of September 20th, the MBA mortgage applications composite index fell 10.1% weekly after falling 0.1%. That looks pretty bad compared to the recent housing data, but keep in mind yearly growth is still solid and because the MBA data is more recent, it had to deal…
7 Year Low In Home Price Growth
Stability Ends For Stocks As Politics Causes Modest Volatility On Tuesday, the S&P 500 fell the most in 1 month. Mostly because House Speaker Nancy Pelosi announced an impeachment inquiry. It caused stocks to fall probably because of the uncertainty of the situation. Democrats control the House and the GOP controls the Senate. Which makes…
Tariff Worries Cause Consumers To Become Less Optimistic
Conference Board Confidence Wanes University of Michigan consumer confidence index and the Conference Board index showed vast differences in August. Especially since the former was much more pessimistic than the latter. These two have converged in September as the preliminary University of Michigan index improved slightly. And the Conference Board index cratered sharply. August Conference…
SPX Hovers Near 3,000 For 12 Days
Markets Take A Breather Unusual action in markets is that nothing is happening. S&P 500 - SPX has closed within 2% of 3,000 for 12 straight sessions. It makes sense for markets to pause because they are heading into a news laden month. In October, there is another Fed meeting, Q3 earnings season, the trade…
Employment Reading - Weakest In Almost 10 Years
Positive National Chicago Fed Reading Bears love to pick out the negative readings in the national Chicago Fed index and use them as evidence for a recession forecast. Anyone who has followed this report for a few months knows that’s not the correct way to look at it. Firstly, negative readings are common. Secondly, even…
Fall Trade Deal - What Are The Odds?
Trade News Sends Stocks Lower S&P 500 was up slightly Friday morning as it was very close to its record high. Then negative trade news came out which sent stocks down modestly. S&P 500 closed the day down 0.49%. I think these trade dealings work in trends. When you start to hear grumblings of negotiations…
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