Bears Double As Fear Grips Wall Street
More Than Half The Losses Have Been Regained This recent correction was the 4th quickest to -5% since the start of the bull market. That turned sentiment on its head as everyone freaked out about the trade war and economic weakness. In 3 days of rallies over half of the scary correction losses have been regained.…
Business Conditions Tighten After Hike & After Cut
Jobless Claims Say To Buy Stocks Jobless claims have had a high correlation with stocks for a long time. Even though states have made it harder to file for claims, they still have stayed correlated with the market. It’s possible that claims aren’t accurate in their portrayal of this being the tightest labor market in…
Stocks Claw Back Wednesday Morning Losses
Huge Stock Market Reversal Wednesday was a very wild day for markets as the S&P 500 cratered 1.75% in the morning and then regained its losses and closed up 8 basis points. That makes it seem like Wednesday was a huge victory even though the market took a round trip. The Nasdaq outperformed partially because…
Recession Odds Increase As Both ISM PMIs Fall In July
Recession Odds Increase Latest flattening of the yield curve implies the recession odds are increasing. To be clear, even if this indicator shows there is a 100% chance of a recession, that doesn’t mean it will happen. This is one of many indicators I use. Ever since the start of the year, investors expected Q2…
Energy Weight In S&P 500 - Lowest Since 1990?
Energy Weight - Stocks Rally After Worst Day Of 2019 Before getting into Energy Weight let's review the markets. Historically, we have seen President Trump pull back on hawkish trade rhetoric when the stock market falls. Fed has also helped stocks by shifting dovishly after big declines. Nothing of that nature happened on Tuesday, yet…
Labor Market Is Nearly Full
Labor Market - Job Growth Continues To Slow The all-important July monthly Labor Market Report got swept under the rug. Mostly because of how much news has come out on earnings, monetary policy, and the trade war. Another reason the July report didn’t get as much coverage as usual is it came in near estimates.…
Trade War Catalyzes The Worst Day Of 2019
Very Wild Monday Monday was the worst day of the year for stocks as the most interesting week for markets was followed by the most interesting day. Last week was the worst week of the year for stocks. I’m not saying these past few days have been interesting because of the declines. It’s because of…
Slowing Economy - Yet Solid Labor Market
Slowing Economy - Economic Growth Is Slowing Before getting into the economic data from last week about the Slowing Economy, let’s get a baseline understanding of how the economy is doing. In June, the ECRI coincident index’s growth rate was 1.6%. It bottomed at about 1% in 2016. Real yearly GDP growth has been falling,…
Worst Week Of 2019 For Stocks
Worst Week - Another Down Day For Stocks Suddenly in the Worst Week of 2019, stocks are in a losing streak as the S&P 500 fell again on Friday. It’s now down 5 straight days since it reached its record high on July 26th. It is down 3.1% in this losing streak. This decline is…
Pending Home Sales - Strong Growth In June
Pending Home Sales - The Biggest Week Of 2019 Before getting into Pending Home Sales let's review the markets. The week to start the month of August was probably the most jam-packed week of the year. Especially in terms of news events and action in markets. We’ve had earnings reports, a new tariff announcement, and…
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