Twitter Headed Down; YouTube Headed Up

In this article, I will discuss two companies moving in the opposite direction. YouTube continues to dominate the online video landscape and Twitter continues to lose ground. Twitter is a disillusioned company which has a base of dedicated users, but no momentum towards accelerated user growth or profitability. YouTube’s profitability isn’t broken down by Alphabet,…

Shrinking Balance Sheet

The size of the Fed’s balance sheet is becoming more of a focus than its decision on interest rates. This is because of increased Fed statements on the topic which I will go over in this article. Goldman Sachs is forecasting no changes to the balance sheet until mid-2018. This would be after the new…

Is SKEW Good For You?

Stocks slipped again, as the Dow Industrial Average fell for a 5th straight day, down about 300 points from all-time highs reached two-weeks ago (1/6) and at 6-week lows heading into tomorrow’s Presidential inauguration. Today marked another round of positive economic data with jobless claims plunging and housing data rising. The dollar rebounded on the…

Bitcoin Doesn’t Fall After Further PBOC Action

There was a new report today that continues the narrative of the People’s Bank of China further intervening with bitcoin. However, the action didn’t lead to the price declines which previously occurred with past announcements. There was a burst of volatility after each part of the report came out, but the price of bitcoin recovered…

NY Fed Manufacturing Output Review

There’s been a bifurcation of the economic survey data from the so called hard data which measures real production and economic activity. My theory is optimism about the new administration is causing this difference. The consensus is this optimism means 2017 will see accelerated growth. In the consensus’s defense, optimism usually does mean growth will…

The reality of earnings and a quiet market

Treasuries slumped, as bond yields surged sharply to the upside for the 10-year to around 2.42%. The tech heavy NASDAQ rebounded after posting its worst performance of the year yesterday (falling from record highs reached last Friday) amid a jump in semiconductors and ahead of NFLX earnings. All eyes on the European Central Bank tomorrow…

The Fed Likely Won’t Raise Rates In 2017

As I mentioned in my last article, the reflation trade has stalled and is now starting to reverse. The country was relieved the election was over so survey results were off the charts in terms of optimism. I showed you how some surveys showed firms not claiming they saw any boost in sales, but they…

Reversal Of The Trump Trade

Today the market is playing out as I projected. The leaders of the market, the financials and small caps, are selling off. The KBW bank index was down 3.43% and the Russell 2000 was down 1.44%. The initial hype that Trump would cut regulations to help these stocks became overheated. The market was expecting these…

Financials Take the Hit From Dollar Comments

Stocks opened in negative territory, losing steam throughout the session ahead of a busy week of corporate earnings. Equities fell on Brexit commentary from UK Prime Minister Theresa May and on a plunging U.S. dollar after Trump talked tough amid the recent strength. The dollar fell after an interview with The Wall Street Journal late…

Buy Volatility in the Zombie Markets

Stocks posted small gains on Friday and remain near record all-time levels heading into the start of earnings season next week. Financial earnings grabbed the headlines and were mixed, but still posted solid returns, led by a jump in regionals. Large cap banks rallied as well as JPM posted solid returns, while BAC and WFC…

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