Higher Yield for S&P 500 Than 30 Year Treasury (First Time In A Decade)
30 Year Yield Falls Below S&P 500 Dividend Yield The stock market had a modest decline and treasury yields fell sharply on Tuesday. Even though August has been a volatile month, the total decline in stocks is nothing compared to the decline in yields. The best evidence of this is that the recent low of…
Big Tariffs Set To Go Into Effect This Fall
Below Trend Growth, No Recession Bears loved the July Chicago Fed National Activity index because it was negative for the 7th time in the past 8 months. It would have been 8 out of 8 if it wasn’t for the 5 basis point positive revision to the June reading. However, even with all this negativity, the…
Clear Warning Sign from Unlikely Stocks at New Highs
It should be bullish to note stocks making new 52-week highs, but is that always the case? In tonight's video, Corey walks you through a scan of 30 key stocks in the SP500 that just made a new 52-week high today. Instead of identifying these as trading candidates as usual, take a moment to see…
Stocks Stuck In An Endless Loop Because Of The Trade War
Stocks Rally On Monday On Monday, the S&P 500 avoided making a new correction low as it increased 1.1%. Action has been extremely choppy in the past couple weeks as you can see from the chart below. The market has matched the rhetoric from President Trump and China on the trade war. It’s an endless…
Core Durable Goods Orders Weak - Potentially Solid ISM PMI Coming
Solid Headline Durable Goods Orders Growth The July durable goods orders report is an example of headline data not matching the details of the report. New orders growth was 2.1% monthly which beat estimates for 1.2% growth. That’s great even though the June reading was revised slightly lower from 2% to 1.8%. Yearly growth was…
The Great Bond Extinction
More of the world’s debt markets are going into negative yield everyday flying in the face of everything we know about modern finance. Don will explore some of the immediate implications but more importantly how your trading and portfolio will feel the inevitable impact of negatively yielding debt markets.
Escalated Trade War Sends Stocks Down. How Bad Can It Get?
Big Stock Market Swoon On Increased Trade Tensions It looks more likely that the September tariffs will go into effect as President Trump sent out a few hawkish tweets on trade. This sent the stock market plummeting on Friday, upstaging Powell’s Jackson Hole speech. The stock market almost made new a correction low after it…
Data Point Suggests Recession Isn’t Coming
Amazing New Home Sales Revision It's always good look at the revisions to data as well as the latest numbers. Usually, I look at the latest numbers the closest. Revisions aren’t extreme and the market reacts to the latest numbers. In the case of the July new home sales report, the revision was extreme, which…
Markets on the Verge of Ugly?
Volatility in markets came to life late in the trading week on a series of FED, China, and tweetastic events! However, we are not as concerned with past events as we are with future risks... and those risk are plentiful. Correlation Coefficients, Volatility of the VIX, Expected Moves, and much more all point to this…
Jackson Hole Speech - Stocks Gear Up
Slight Selloff As Market Awaits Jackson Hole Speech It seems like all the market cares about is Fed policy because it barely moved on Thursday even though there was a lot of economic data released, some of which I reviewed in a previous article. As I’ve discussed in previous articles, Powell is speaking at Jackson…
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