What Consumer Spending Tells Us About Nike's Future Earnings
Few things can hit the market as hard as the American consumer’s mood. The impact isn’t always direct or proportional or even immediate, but it touches almost everything, and many stocks virtually live or die by consumer sentiment. Last week we looked at what sentiment will do for… and to… Costco. This week, we’re going…
The Triple Witch Returns...With Trillions in Risk to the Markets
Everything’s got an expiration date - milk, bread, bananas… and derivatives. This Friday - day after tomorrow - we’ll see stock options, index options, and index futures worth trillions all expire on the same trading day. It’s called “triple witching,” and if for some reason you’ve never been through one before, you’re in for a…
Stocks Are Testing New Highs as Inflation Comes in Hot (Again)
The headwinds are blowing stronger and stronger, but most stocks are still defying gravity and, in a lot of cases, common sense. All three big indexes were looking strong in late trading today. And this is all despite the fact that we got a hotter-than-expected CPI report this morning. But Bitcoin, which, along with gold,…
Nvidia Options Are Fading - Here's What Comes Next
Maybe you were camping on a mountaintop or lost in the woods this past Friday, but Nvidia, one of the market’s most important, high-volume stocks right now, took a wild ride to close out the week. Options volatility exploded higher as the seemingly unstoppable bullish fever on the stock broke. Shares slid around 10% from…
Here's Why the Selling Is Different This Time
The indexes took a hit today. The S&P, which had been up nicely to new all time highs surrendered to the red at the end of the day. But saying "stocks are down" is like calling the Pacific Ocean a "puddle." It doesn't do anywhere near enough justice to the insane price action we saw…
I Just Found the Next Big Market Catalyst
It's understandable investors would assume that Amazon is a great representation of consumer discretionary spending - and the overall economy, for that matter. But I think I can go one better... It might suprise you, but I think Costco is actually the better yardstick, and I'll show you exactly why. See, when Costco beats, equities…
The Magnificent Seven are Down to the Final Four
The S&P 500 was enjoying a bit of a bounceback today after yesterday's selloff. Good news, right? Well, not so much. What I was looking at toward the close - and in fact over the past few days - is actually not great news for the market. We just keep seeing more and more weakness…
It's Looking Scary Out There - Here's What to Do About It
There have been a few times over the past couple of weeks where we’ve seen warning signals flash and stocks start to waver. It goes a little something like this: The mood turns risk-off, the mega-bulls calling the shots in chipmakers and tech start to falter, and defensive plays like gold and bonds start to…
Here's the Real Reason Nvidia is the Only Stock That Matters
You probably understand correlation in the markets - assets moving together in some kind of relationship, even if that happens to be inverse. It usually makes intuitive sense. If stocks drop, safe-haven assets like gold or bonds move higher as the crowd looks for safety. That makes sense, right? The dispersion trade, on the other…
When the Selling Starts, Markets Could Get Wild
The markets can be the ultimate bandwagon sometimes, and that’s got a tendency to be dangerous. It doesn’t take long for one big, definitive sell order… to be followed by tens of millions of others. At the moment, it’s working the other way; the crowd is into just one or two stocks (which we’ve talked…
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