Pop and Drop Market?

Should I stay or should I go now? If I go there will be trouble An' if I stay it will be double So come on and let me know The Clash lyrics have never been more fitting as the UK decides whether or not they are staying in the EU. Results are tonight. The…

What to Expect with Brexit

It's important to determine which risk metrics that TheoTraders use in the next 2 days. Implied volatility in the SPX is rising as we speak ahead of the much anticipated British referendum. Here's what I'm expecting over the next 2 days and how to protect & profit during this pivotal time in the market.

Final Call For Brexit Analysis: A Last Minute Look At One Bank’s S&P Forecast

This is it folks, last call for Brexit analysis and commentary. Or at least we hope so, although one certainly imagines that if the vote is close, whichever side loses will demand a do-over. To be sure, markets are trading as though “remain” is a done deal. Have a look, for instance, at (in order)…

Yellen Testimony Overshadowed By Brexit, Soros Warns Of “Black Friday”

Janet Yellen trekked up Capitol Hill on Tuesday for her semi-annual Humphrey-Hawkins testimony. Frankly, it kind of feels like a snoozer. Here are some of the bullet points: WE DO HAVE LEGAL BASIS TO PURSUE NEGATIVE RATES NOT CONSIDERING NEGATIVE RATES BREXIT-RELATED FINANCIAL VOLATILITY COULD AFFECT U.S. I DON’T THINK RISKS TO FINANCIAL STABILITY ARE…

Is Market Risk Still About the Brexit Vote?

TheoTraders look at all the market correlations to determine what's exactly happening inside the market. For example, we look at the US Bonds which has made a huge move higher ahead of the Brexit vote. Today, with the "leave" possibility off the table you would expect Bonds to have a much more severe reaction lower.…

Stocks, Bonds, Commodities, And Gold: Trading Brexit

The good thing about the Brexit referendum is it’s this week. That rules out the painful prospect that we’ll have to endure the type of summer we suffered through last year when there was a Greece headline every five minutes on market days and every 10 minutes on weekends. Sure, there’s some event risk here,…

Everything Is Fixed, But Watch For “Tape Bombs” Ahead Of Thursday

We woke up Monday morning and everything was fixed. Actually, it started last night when the British pound suddenly spiked above 1.46. Liquidity was thin, according to traders who also told Bloomberg that market-makers in some global banks have been told to cease quoting short-dated GBP options until further notice.   The GBP rally set…

Trade Ideas Ahead of Brexit

TheoTraders look at the implied volatility ahead of a major news announcement. This week is the British referendum vote. This is like an earnings announcement for the entire market. Bonds have already made a huge move in anticipation of the vote. Even if vote is to stay we could see a lot of volatility from…

Brexit Drama Reaches Fever Pitch Following Death Of British MP

Even Jim Cramer admits it: global macro is in the driver’s seat. On Friday morning the boisterous Mad Money host bemoaned the fact that no one seems to care about anything but Brexit and geopolitics. “I’m probably the only person in the world reading the Kroger quarter,” Cramer lamented. “It’s only the biggest grocery store…

Brexit In The Driver’s Seat For Markets As “Leave” Odds Rise

“In any event, watch the BoJ tonight. USD/JPY sunk to 20-month low at 105.44 before bouncing following the Fed decision. If Japan doesn’t play this exactly right, you could see further yen strength - and we’ve seen what that does to US stocks.” That’s what we said on Thursday afternoon after the Fed struck an…

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