“Get To The Chopper”: Japan Election, Bernanke Visit Fuel Helicopter Money Rumors

We’ve talked plenty in these pages about the ebb and flow between the Japanese yen and risk assets. Simply put, the yen is a safe haven currency. When you wake up to see it’s appreciated sharply against the dollar in the overnight session, you can pretty much immediately infer that the mood out there is…

No, The Fed Probably Won’t Hike On Huge Jobs Beat

Coming into NFP Friday, it kind of felt like stocks were going to go up either way. After all, there was virtually no chance of getting a June jobs number as bad as May’s report, a modestly underwhelming print would keep the Fed on hold thereby forestalling the tightening cycle yet again, and in the…

The Fed is Out of the Way

Thanks to Brexit, political and global uncertainty the Fed is now out of the way for the foreseeable future. TheoTraders will know what the risks are in the market. Here's what to look for in bonds and stocks.

Red Light, Green Light

Earlier this week, we explained how pretty much everything you’re seeing in terms of market swings can be at least partially explained by central bank frontrunning. Stocks up? Investors anticipate the Fed will delay its next hike thanks to the Brexit debacle. Dollar up? Investors know that even if the Fed doesn’t hike, it’s still…

Fed Minutes Reveal Pernicious Policy Paradox; Bond King Says Hang On To Gold

They needed some “additional data.” Data like a vote count from the UK, where the possibility of an imminent black swan landing sealed the deal for no FOMC hike in June. "Members generally agreed that, before assessing whether another step in removing monetary accommodation was warranted, it was prudent to wait for additional data on…

In Dramatic Shift, Fed’s Bullard Says FOMC Should Stop Making Long-Run Projections

This has been the year that markets finally began to question central banks in earnest. It started in January when the Nikkei took a dive and the yen surged following the Bank of Japan’s decision to take rates into negative territory. That was the shot across the bow. By all accounts, the move below zero…

Gundlach Slams “Zombie Fed,” Says World Is “Losing Control”

Overseas markets got a bit of a breather Wednesday from the safe haven bid as everyone remained stuck in suspended animation ahead of the Fed decision. Come to think of it, that’s ironic because the Fed itself seems to be frozen. We’d be remiss if we didn’t talk about central banks today and tomorrow. As…

Fear Builds Ahead Of Fed, Brexit Vote As German 10-Year Goes Sub-Zero

It’s probably safe to say that there’s now a palpable sense of anxiety hanging over global markets. We previewed the flight to safety here yesterday, noting that Brexit risk was driving investors into supposedly “riskless” assets and haven currencies. Currencies like the yen, which is trying pretty hard to press towards 100, creating a rather…

“Fear And Greed”: Central Bank Front-Running And What It Means For Traders

“Fear and greed [used to be] a continuum, allowing for an ebb and flow with continuous price discovery and availability,” Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow wrote on Thursday. “What we have now is pedal to the metal front-running of central banks and the nagging fear that when the fun ends there won’t be a bid anyway, so…

Goldman Warns Big Drawn Down On The Way

Remember last year, when Jamie Dimon jumped on the bond market liquidity bandwagon and warned that harrowing bouts of flash crashing madness like what unfolded in October of 2014 with USTs were likely to happen with increased frequency? As a reminder, here's what he said: "Treasury markets were quite turbulent in the spring and summer…

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