Fed Summer Survival Guide
Ok, so it’s Tuesday, which might as well be Monday thanks to the US and the UK being closed yesterday. I don’t mind penning “news-ish” market updates, but as regular readers here are probably aware, I prefer to outline my take on market themes or macro trends that I think matter from a big picture…
Sleepy Monday Markets React To Yellen’s Friday Yellin’ Ahead Of Payrolls
Well, that escalated quickly. Markets are reacting precisely as one would have expected after two solid weeks of hawkish Fedspeak and it’s not entirely clear how everyone feels about things. Maybe it’s just because the holiday limits news flow as well as overseas volume, but there seems to be a palpable sense of caution in…
Wall Street To Fed: Promise Us You Don't Know What You're Doing
“That’s a risk that we live with every day and we’re going to live with that every day for many, many years to come, so I think you can’t be on pins and needles and say I’m not going to pursue the right policy for the U.S. because something bad might happen in that situation.”…
King Dollar Has “Unfinished Business”
This week was about one thing, and one thing only: uber hawkishness from the Fed. To be sure, “uber hawkishness” means something entirely different today than it meant in the Volcker years. Now, you’re a hawk if you think the Fed Funds should be 75 bps. Still, it’s all relative. We live in a world…
Why One Bank Thinks Emerging Markets May Be In Trouble
Let’s talk about emerging markets. Over the past five days, it’s become abundantly clear that the Fed was getting a bit nervous about the odds the market was assigning to a June rate hike. In short, it was readily apparent that virtually everyone assumed next month was a no go. The looming Brexit referendum only…
Calls For “Helicopter Money” Grow As G7 Meeting Betrays Global Growth Jitters
Finance chiefs from the G7 economies are meeting in Japan this weekend ahead of next week’s G7 summit. At the top of the agenda: sluggish global growth. As anyone who follows global macro is acutely aware, Japan is in many ways the poster child for subdued economic activity. Last year, the country received the rather…
Here’s What To Watch Ahead Of The All Important June Fed Decision
Well, here we go again. Both crude and stocks got off to a rocky start on Thursday as the Dow plunged triple digits and oil fell more than 2.5%. The culprit: why, the Fed of course. This week has reinforced the market themes that have played out for most of this year. On Monday we…
Fed Stuns Market With Hawkish Meeting Minutes, June “Live” After All
Surprise, surprise. Minutes from the Fed’s April meeting are out and the message is overwhelmingly hawkish. June is “live” after all. Equity markets immediately dipped into the red although after yesterday’s commentary from Williams and Lockhart, investors probably should have expected this. In hindsight, it looks like the San Francisco and Atlanta Fed chiefs were…
Stocks Swoon As Good News Is Still Bad News
It was just yesterday when Richmond Fed chief and consummate hawk Jeffrey Lacker told The Washington Post that in his view, the FOMC needs to “catch up” after falling behind the curve (no bond market pun intended) on policy normalization. Whatever impetus there was for a March hike promptly disappeared after stocks got off to…
Fed Watchers
Fed Watchers Fed watchers closely listened to Yellen's speech today. The speech was a lot more dovish than investors anticipated and that sparked another break out to the upside. Some Fed watchers are issuing caution. What does Yellen know about the economy that she has turned so dovish in the last few months? Will Friday's…
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