How the S&P500 Will Handle the Next Week

Lots of catalysts over the next week around the S&P500 starting tomorrow with the FOMC announcement. Unemployment numbers come out on Friday. Oh and let's not forget the Presidential election which encompasses wikileaks and FBI announcements. Here's how to navigate the markets in the face all these landmines...  

“Get To The Chopper”: Japan Election, Bernanke Visit Fuel Helicopter Money Rumors

We’ve talked plenty in these pages about the ebb and flow between the Japanese yen and risk assets. Simply put, the yen is a safe haven currency. When you wake up to see it’s appreciated sharply against the dollar in the overnight session, you can pretty much immediately infer that the mood out there is…

No, The Fed Probably Won’t Hike On Huge Jobs Beat

Coming into NFP Friday, it kind of felt like stocks were going to go up either way. After all, there was virtually no chance of getting a June jobs number as bad as May’s report, a modestly underwhelming print would keep the Fed on hold thereby forestalling the tightening cycle yet again, and in the…

Fed Minutes Reveal Pernicious Policy Paradox; Bond King Says Hang On To Gold

They needed some “additional data.” Data like a vote count from the UK, where the possibility of an imminent black swan landing sealed the deal for no FOMC hike in June. "Members generally agreed that, before assessing whether another step in removing monetary accommodation was warranted, it was prudent to wait for additional data on…

The Tired Rally That Refuses To Die

We’ve talked a lot about the likelihood of a US recession over the past couple of days (see here and here) - probably not exactly what everyone wanted to hear over the holiday weekend. It’s not so much that we want to come across as doomsayers. Rather, the point is to assess the extent to…

In Dramatic Shift, Fed’s Bullard Says FOMC Should Stop Making Long-Run Projections

This has been the year that markets finally began to question central banks in earnest. It started in January when the Nikkei took a dive and the yen surged following the Bank of Japan’s decision to take rates into negative territory. That was the shot across the bow. By all accounts, the move below zero…

Brexit In The Driver’s Seat For Markets As “Leave” Odds Rise

“In any event, watch the BoJ tonight. USD/JPY sunk to 20-month low at 105.44 before bouncing following the Fed decision. If Japan doesn’t play this exactly right, you could see further yen strength - and we’ve seen what that does to US stocks.” That’s what we said on Thursday afternoon after the Fed struck an…

Gundlach Slams “Zombie Fed,” Says World Is “Losing Control”

Overseas markets got a bit of a breather Wednesday from the safe haven bid as everyone remained stuck in suspended animation ahead of the Fed decision. Come to think of it, that’s ironic because the Fed itself seems to be frozen. We’d be remiss if we didn’t talk about central banks today and tomorrow. As…

Fear Builds Ahead Of Fed, Brexit Vote As German 10-Year Goes Sub-Zero

It’s probably safe to say that there’s now a palpable sense of anxiety hanging over global markets. We previewed the flight to safety here yesterday, noting that Brexit risk was driving investors into supposedly “riskless” assets and haven currencies. Currencies like the yen, which is trying pretty hard to press towards 100, creating a rather…

“Fear And Greed”: Central Bank Front-Running And What It Means For Traders

“Fear and greed [used to be] a continuum, allowing for an ebb and flow with continuous price discovery and availability,” Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow wrote on Thursday. “What we have now is pedal to the metal front-running of central banks and the nagging fear that when the fun ends there won’t be a bid anyway, so…

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