Goldman Warns Big Drawn Down On The Way

Remember last year, when Jamie Dimon jumped on the bond market liquidity bandwagon and warned that harrowing bouts of flash crashing madness like what unfolded in October of 2014 with USTs were likely to happen with increased frequency? As a reminder, here's what he said: "Treasury markets were quite turbulent in the spring and summer…

It May Be Time To Stop Blaming Central Bankers

“My message will be largely favorable, although recent developments have been mixed.” That’s it ladies and gentlemen. We’ve officially reached the nadir of Fed communication. Janet Yellen is now telegraphing what she is about to say in a speech which is itself ostensibly meant to telegraph something else. It’s a kind of bizarre evolution wherein…

Goldman: 100 Basis Points Equals One Trillion In Losses

On Friday, we got an abysmal NFP print. And that should have sent stocks soaring right out of the gate. As we explained here earlier today, bad economic news has traditionally been good news for equity investors and traders in the upside down environment that has largely characterized the post-crisis world. By the end of…

"So, Maybe July Then?”: Poor Jobs Report Puts Question Mark Over Fed

Bad news is good news. Or not. The market’s reaction to Friday’s NFP report betrays the extent to which investors and traders no longer have any idea how to read the Federal Reserve. There was a time when negative data was a guaranteed boon for risk. The worse the data, the better for stocks. Why?…

Fed Summer Survival Guide

Ok, so it’s Tuesday, which might as well be Monday thanks to the US and the UK being closed yesterday. I don’t mind penning “news-ish” market updates, but as regular readers here are probably aware, I prefer to outline my take on market themes or macro trends that I think matter from a big picture…

Sleepy Monday Markets React To Yellen’s Friday Yellin’ Ahead Of Payrolls

Well, that escalated quickly. Markets are reacting precisely as one would have expected after two solid weeks of hawkish Fedspeak and it’s not entirely clear how everyone feels about things. Maybe it’s just because the holiday limits news flow as well as overseas volume, but there seems to be a palpable sense of caution in…

Wall Street To Fed: Promise Us You Don't Know What You're Doing

“That’s a risk that we live with every day and we’re going to live with that every day for many, many years to come, so I think you can’t be on pins and needles and say I’m not going to pursue the right policy for the U.S. because something bad might happen in that situation.”…

Where’s The Bull Market?

If someone asked me to summarize my general outlook on markets - whether equities, fixed income, FX, or otherwise - in one sentence I’d say this: we are investing and trading in exceptionally uncertain times. Yes, that’s a cliche. But I think it’s an appropriate one in this case. To be sure, being bearish and…

King Dollar Has “Unfinished Business”

This week was about one thing, and one thing only: uber hawkishness from the Fed. To be sure, “uber hawkishness” means something entirely different today than it meant in the Volcker years. Now, you’re a hawk if you think the Fed Funds should be 75 bps. Still, it’s all relative. We live in a world…

Market Uncertainty

Market Uncertainty Market uncertainty is heating up. The Fed toying with the markets each day as investors hang on their ever word. The chance of a Fed Funds rate in June as elevated to 30% from near zero only a few weeks ago. There is a major election with big policy issues at stake which…

Page 2 of 4