When Will The Monetary Madness End?

            The U.S. economy is in an interesting situation. The manufacturing economy started weakening in 2014. Industrial production has declined for 13 straight months which is the longest streak outside of a recession ever. Earnings peaked in 2015 and have been declining ever since. Both the Russell 2000 and the NYSE peaked in 2015. All…

Relationships in the Market

There is divergence in the force... the market that is. Looking at the 3 major indexes - the SPX, RUT, and QQQ - the weakest index has become the strongest and the strongest the weakest. One thing that we have been harping on is historical volatility vs. implied volatility. Everybody wants to be premium sellers…

Volatility Continues as Trouble Overseas Grow

The markets have some strong headwinds to overcome. From a fundamental perspective multinational companies have a lot of currency risk at stake. From a geopolitical point of view "global Order" has been rocked as the movement towards nationalism and away from globalism continue to gain steam. And tonight we look at the markets breaking down…

Markets Rally - Out Of The Woods Already?

And now, back to our regularly scheduled programming. Well, not entirely, but US traders woke up Tuesday to green screens, a welcome reprieve from two days of mayhem. “Brexit” discussions still dominate the airwaves and headlines, but you can count on the dip buyers and knife catchers for what may or may not be a…

Trade Ideas Ahead of Brexit

TheoTraders look at the implied volatility ahead of a major news announcement. This week is the British referendum vote. This is like an earnings announcement for the entire market. Bonds have already made a huge move in anticipation of the vote. Even if vote is to stay we could see a lot of volatility from…

The Fed Dilemma will Dictate Markets Next Move

TheoTraders cautiously await the big news announcement by the FOMC on Wednesday. Will the Fed use words or actions to try and control the markets next move. Around the world negative interest rate policy (ZIRP) has flooded markets with liquidity. In the United States will the Fed put a positive spin on recent unemployment numbers…

Trade idea off the third rail on the S&P

TheoTraders look for trades that give you an edge. TheoTraders also look for defined risk trades that are slow, steady, and consistent. Tonight let's look at a trade setup off the third rail on the S&P.

Margins Or Buybacks: What’s Really Driving S&P EPS Beats?

While perusing FactSet’s “Thought Leadership” section on Friday I ran across something interesting. There’s a narrative out there about buybacks that’s been propagated by a variety of outlets over the past 12 or so months that ties ZIRP and share repurchases to equity strength. To be sure, it’s a compelling argument. Here’s how it goes.…

Implied Volatility Expected Move

Implied Volatility Expected Move Every week we need to look at the implied volatility and expected move for the week. Comparing the implied volatility and expected move to the previous week will tell us if there is more risk in the market. For next week the oil production report is coming out and the FOMC…

Short the SPY ETF

Short the SPY ETF You can view your short positions as being short the SPY ETF. Let's review the positions that are on and what to expect next week. There is one big news announcement that is keeping the expected move juiced up in the SPX. That is the ECB announcement as central banks around…