A Closer Look At Which Companies Are Vulnerable To A Rising Dollar

Clearly, the results of the UK referendum leave us with quite a bit to think about going forward. Trading in the days ahead of the vote provided some important lessons in investor psychology and we learned, yet again, that the post crisis landscape is vulnerable to tail events. We were also reminded of the extent…

The Morning After: Surveying Brexit Damage

It all started at exactly 5:01 pm ET Thursday evening. That’s when the following headline hit the terminal: NIGEL FARAGE: LOOKS LIKE REMAIN WILL EDGE IT: SKY Hallelujah. This week’s risk-on sentiment was justified after all. They’ll be no “Brexit” on our watch. Take that, anyone long yen. Then, exactly one hour and 53 minutes…

An Eerie Calm Hangs Over The Dollar, One Bank Warns

Last month, in a brilliant presentation, Citi’s Matt King outlined “the polarization principle” and how it relates to politics, the economy, and markets. The idea is that as interconnectedness and correlations increase, heterogeneity naturally decreases. When that happens, the incidence of extreme outcomes in politics, society, and markets goes up. Here’s how the bank depicted…

King Dollar Has “Unfinished Business”

This week was about one thing, and one thing only: uber hawkishness from the Fed. To be sure, “uber hawkishness” means something entirely different today than it meant in the Volcker years. Now, you’re a hawk if you think the Fed Funds should be 75 bps. Still, it’s all relative. We live in a world…

Here’s What To Watch Ahead Of The All Important June Fed Decision

Well, here we go again. Both crude and stocks got off to a rocky start on Thursday as the Dow plunged triple digits and oil fell more than 2.5%. The culprit: why, the Fed of course. This week has reinforced the market themes that have played out for most of this year. On Monday we…

It’s Good To Be King (Dollar) - Or Is It?

It’s Good To Be King (Dollar) - Or Is It? Heavy is the head that wears the crown. It’s good to be king. Asked to choose which of those old adages best describes how it feels to control the fate of the world’s reserve currency (“king dollar”) in a time of intractable currency wars and…