A Closer Look At Which Companies Are Vulnerable To A Rising Dollar
Clearly, the results of the UK referendum leave us with quite a bit to think about going forward. Trading in the days ahead of the vote provided some important lessons in investor psychology and we learned, yet again, that the post crisis landscape is vulnerable to tail events. We were also reminded of the extent…
The Morning After: Surveying Brexit Damage
It all started at exactly 5:01 pm ET Thursday evening. Thatās when the following headline hit the terminal: NIGEL FARAGE: LOOKS LIKE REMAIN WILL EDGE IT: SKY Hallelujah. This weekās risk-on sentiment was justified after all. Theyāll be no āBrexitā on our watch. Take that, anyone long yen. Then, exactly one hour and 53 minutes…
An Eerie Calm Hangs Over The Dollar, One Bank Warns
Last month, in a brilliant presentation, Citiās Matt King outlined āthe polarization principleā and how it relates to politics, the economy, and markets. The idea is that as interconnectedness and correlations increase, heterogeneity naturally decreases. When that happens, the incidence of extreme outcomes in politics, society, and markets goes up. Hereās how the bank depicted…
King Dollar Has āUnfinished Businessā
This week was about one thing, and one thing only: uber hawkishness from the Fed. To be sure, āuber hawkishnessā means something entirely different today than it meant in the Volcker years. Now, youāre a hawk if you think the Fed Funds should be 75 bps. Still, itās all relative. We live in a world…
Hereās What To Watch Ahead Of The All Important June Fed Decision
Well, here we go again. Both crude and stocks got off to a rocky start on Thursday as the Dow plunged triple digits and oil fell more than 2.5%. The culprit: why, the Fed of course. This week has reinforced the market themes that have played out for most of this year. On Monday we…
Itās Good To Be King (Dollar) - Or Is It?
Itās Good To Be King (Dollar) - Or Is It? Heavy is the head that wears the crown. Itās good to be king. Asked to choose which of those old adages best describes how it feels to control the fate of the worldās reserve currency (āking dollarā) in a time of intractable currency wars and…
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