Brace Yourselves, Volatility Draws Nigh, PIMCO Warns
One of the key themes I try to communicate to investors is that in the current environment, you simply can’t understand markets if you don’t understand geopolitics. This has always been the case to a certain extent, but it’s arguably more true today than ever. The Saudis, for instance, are wielding their sway over oil…
Where’s The Bull Market?
If someone asked me to summarize my general outlook on markets - whether equities, fixed income, FX, or otherwise - in one sentence I’d say this: we are investing and trading in exceptionally uncertain times. Yes, that’s a cliche. But I think it’s an appropriate one in this case. To be sure, being bearish and…
Volatility is Your Friend
Volatility is Your Friend Volatility is your friend and it's back! Today's market saw more than a 40 point move in the SPX and 100 point move in the NDX from high to low intraday. This sets up some great trading opportunities for us. Today I was able to intraday date FB and QQQ short.…
Volatility of Volatility
Volatility of Volatility Looking at volatility of volatility is one way to look under hood of the market to determine what is actually happening. The product symbol is VVIX and what is conveys is the volatility on option prices. By looking at the VVIX we can see that fear is coming back into the market…
Massive Market Divergence
Massive Market Divergence Massive market divergence in today's market action. We saw the FANG stocks - FB, AMZN, NFLX, and GOOGL get clobbered while the rest of the market was relatively stable. Keep in mind these are the 4 stocks that led the market higher. If these stocks aren't leading the way which stocks are…
Volatility in the Stock Market
Volatility in the Stock Market Here's how TheoTrade has traded with the volatility in the stock market. This week we closed out winning trades in AMZN, EEM, and SPX. Let's look to next week and what we expect. There is a strong possibility of there being a little bit more of a short covering rally…
Sell Options Premium
Sell Options Premium This is a premium sellers dream market. Volatility remains very high and now is the time to sell options premium. Nasdaq divergence continues to play out. We have seen the Nasdaq be the weakest index on down days and not rally as much as the other indexes on up days. EWJ is…
Recession 2016
Recession 2016 More and more evidence of a recession in 2016 seems to be rearing it's ugly head. Bonds are screaming higher which is a tell tale sign that the market is thinking recession. Meanwhile financials are officially in a bear market. I keep watching the implied volatility in the XLF and that tells you…
XLF Volatility Signals Fears
XLF Volatility Signals Fears XLF volatility signals fear is at an extreme. The implied volatility is telling anyone looking to stay away from the long side of this market. It is also telling us is that no longer risk is here, but here to stay. The XLF IV% is over 30% for the foreseeable future.…
Stock Sell Off
Stock Sell Off As predicted the selling the broader market resumed today with the Bond markets exploding to the upside. Fear is in the air but the volatility index is still not reacting to what has amounted to heavy selling across all sectors and the financials seeing a nearly 3% decline.
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