One of the most surprising parts of the results is this: 435 winning trades and 434 losing trades. Almost a 50/50 win rate. And yet, the system still produced over $13,000 in net profit on a $5,000 account. Why? Because the winners were consistently larger than the losers. That's the entire edge—risk control, not prediction. → See how risk and reward are structured on every trade.

Buy the Squeeze, Sell the Skew

Explosive move up decimates volatility

SPX Expected Move shattered in two consecutive weeks.

Short term inefficiency in play

Rates Rip Higher
—Financials fly
—10yr and 30yr diverge, curve is STEEP!

Strategy Talk-
—buy short term gamma
—sell long term premium and skew

SPX Expected Move
–last week– 132.54 (expected move)
–actual move –169.59
–next week– 63.34

Don Kaufman

Don Kaufman is options trader and educator. Former CBOE market maker, former Chief Derivatives Instructor at thinkorswim, and former Director of the Trader Group at TD Ameritrade. In 2015 he co-founded TheoTrade to teach traders how volatility, probability, and risk really work.

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Monday, October 26, 2026 – Tony’s Pre-Market Playbook

	Today
09.00	Don Kaufman \| Pre-Market Prep \| FREE SESSION 09.20 09.30 Don Kaufman \| Early volatility 09.20 10.30
09.30
10.00
10.30	Jeff Bierman \| Market structure 10.30 11.30
11.00	Jeff Bierman \| Market structure 10.30 11.30
11.30	Brandon Chapman \| Ghost Hour 11.30 12.30
12.00	Brandon Chapman \| Ghost Hour 11.30 12.30
12.30	Gianni Di Poce \| Macro overview 12.30 13.15 Elizabeth \| Price Action 13.15 14.00
13.00
13.30
14.00	Corey Rosenbloom \| Options tactics 14.00 15.00
14.30	Corey Rosenbloom \| Options tactics 14.00 15.00
15.00	Blake Young \| Market wrap 15.00 16.00
15.30	Blake Young \| Market wrap 15.00 16.00