https://youtu.be/VuFnaY5PkbM The 30 year Treasury yield hit 5.44% on Thursday. That’s its highest level since 2004. I’m buying bonds right into it. I’m short bond futures puts at the 104, 103, and 102 strikes. I also bought bonds outright. I see an opportunity few traders get in a generation. I’m also ready for some near term pain. If the 30 year yield climbs to 6.5%, bonds could drop another 10 to 13 points. I’ll load up more if that happens. The stock market gives me another reason to want bonds. A handful of names hold the S&P 500 together, and I expect a wicked rotation back into bonds when they crack. Here’s what I break down in this weekend’s video: Only 45% of S&P 500 stocks traded above their 200 day moving averages on September 24th. A month earlier, 70.57% did. Just 25.44% sat above their 50 day moving averages,

https://youtu.be/yKDrf9lDr3s Blake Young found a trade that pays 2.76% in one month. Annualize that…and you’ve got a VERY healthy return. Dow (the chemical company) would have to drop 7.5% before he loses a single penny. If Dow does fall that far, Blake owns it at a discount. Then he starts collecting a 4.9% dividend yield. That setup comes out of a market going nowhere. The S&P 500 and the QQQ both gapped down today, filled the gap, and closed right back at yesterday’s level. Blake doesn’t read that as bullish or bearish. He isn’t convinced we break out over the next couple of days or weeks. He went hunting for the next inflection point instead. He found it in basic materials. Materials should normally benefit from higher costs and higher inflation. The XLB has dropped back to long term support anyway. Blake’s one year chart shows that level holding again

https://youtu.be/FOV8YMSiKHs More S&P 500 stocks are moving against the index right now than I’ve ever seen. The last time I saw anything close was the dot com peak. That’s a record share of stocks trading with negative beta. Beta measures how a stock moves relative to the S&P 500. A beta of 1 means your stock moves about 1% for every 1% move in the index. Negative beta flips that relationship. If the S&P 500 rallies 1%, a negative beta stock might drop 1%. I first saw this stat in a post on X. I didn’t believe it. I ran my own numbers all the way back to 1990. The data was worse than the post. The share of negative beta stocks peaked at 42% on August 7th, 2026. It sits at 34% today. The one year beta tells the same story. On that measure, 17% of S&P 500 stocks

https://youtu.be/K6Li2RSaeZo Last week’s rate hike started the countdown on this bull market. Gianni Di Poce sees it as the signal that we’ve entered the final phase. He isn’t turning bearish. He thinks this final phase could carry the Mag 7 and Mag 10 another 50% to 80% higher. Gianni rejects the lazy take that rate hikes are bearish. He expects another hike or two before year end to pull global capital into US stocks. The bears keep complaining about weak breadth. Gianni says breadth mattered more before just over 10 stocks made up over 40% of the index. In past manias, the average stock faded well before the indices did. These mega caps have become the indices, so the market won’t go lower while they keep climbing. Tonight’s video maps out how far Gianni thinks this final phase can run: The Silicon Surge daily precision arrow indicator fired on Fed

https://youtu.be/luy94dF2tug Brandon Chapman watched Meta scream 11% on a day with no earnings. That move had nothing to do with an AI headline. Desks were running a dispersion trade. They sold premium in the SPX and bought calls on the Mag Seven names. Brandon showed the proof on the screen. The VIXEQ climbed from 38.3 to 38.8 while the VIX bled lower. Component volatility rose because traders were buying calls on individual names. Index volatility fell because those same traders were selling SPX premium around 30 days out. Those calls force dealers into negative gamma. Dealers hedge by buying stock, and the tape grinds higher on its own mechanics. The structure was already loaded before the first tick. The market opened at 766 with the negative gamma flip sitting all the way down at 762. That cushion let price run without friction. SPY blew through 770, took out 772, and

https://youtu.be/n8CDtxhNIXE Quadruple witching came and went today. The S&P 500 finished the week dead unchanged. The story sits in the bond market instead. The 10-year yield is parked at 5% and setting up to break higher. I’ll be watching that all weekend. When the bonds break, a long list of other asset classes gets dragged into it. Start with where we’ve been. We’ve traded inside the same volatility box since May 4th. Five months of pinging back and forth. The futures rolled from September to December this week. The new contract sits about 68 points higher, so the box moved up with it. Center of the range now sits near 7550. A selloff into that level next week means nothing to me. A push above 7750 gives a rally real legs. Today handed you another rotation session. Financials opened lower and rallied straight back, and over 80 stocks were trading

https://youtu.be/N2XfS_D4xWM Blake Young stripped the overnight session out of today’s tape. The S&P 500 moved 0% from the cash open.Every bit of that recovery landed while American traders slept. This wasn’t an audience participation move.Technology ran 2% on the day. The index still finished flat once you measure from the 9:30 candle forward.Blake traced the buying to the dollar. Foreign capital converted euros, yen, and pounds into US equities overnight.The dollar broke out of a double bottom and now targets 100.61. It closed today with the exact same strength it carried yesterday.Equities fall when the dollar climbs. That overnight bid papered over a market still rolling over underneath.Look at the quarter instead of the session. Only communications, healthcare, and energy sit above the S&P 500 average over the last three months.Half the sectors sit below zero. Blake reads that as a temporary pullback, and he’s getting ready for the next

The Fed raised 25 basis points and gave no forward guidance at all. Risk in this market went up after that announcement. One number proves it. The SPX priced a $128 expected move for the entire week. Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday are already in the books. Friday’s expiration still implies plus or minus $91. Most of the week’s risk now sits inside two sessions. I started tonight’s session in the September S&P 500 futures contract. We dropped right back into the volatility box and tagged 7511 almost spot on. I call 7511 the warm fuzzy spot. Risk goes there to die. The box runs 7350 on the bottom and roughly 7700 on top. The SPX dragged us back to it. Nearly five million contracts traded there today. Tesla traded two and a half million. Nvidia traded three million. Nothing else on the board moves that kind of notional value. Plenty

https://youtu.be/R8TrsMTMi3g Gianni Di Poce caught something yesterday that barely registered anywhere else. Software outperformed semiconductors by the greatest margin in history. That happened in a single session. Gianni has been building an overweight allocation into software for months. Yesterday paid him off. He’s already looking at the next rotation, and he’s walking through the whole framework live tomorrow. Wednesday at 2 PM Eastern, Gianni opens the room for free. He shows the four conditions he checks in the Nasdaq every week, the full track record since launch with the losing trades included, and a brand new second way every Tech Timer pays. One attendee leaves with $1,000 cash, drawn live. There’s no replay. 👉 Save my seat for Wednesday at 2 PM Eastern👈 Now here’s what has him watching the Nasdaq this closely. The index has done nothing since mid May. Four months of range, and the Bollinger Bands now

https://youtu.be/Bq4K0CrBVnU The 10-year Treasury note touched 5% today. Fed funds futures now put a quarter point hike Wednesday at 90%. Brandon Chapman spent today’s session explaining why that hike has close to nothing to do with inflation. Raising rates won’t rebuild the refining capacity we never built. It won’t bring down oil after we bombed a batch of Russian refiners. Brandon tracks the real pressure to a different place. The Fed needs the yield spread between us and Japan to stay wide. The Bank of Japan is raising rates to fight its own inflation. Their Friday policy statement lands right on top of that spread. Every tick of tightening in Tokyo narrows the gap. Investors who borrowed cheap yen to buy our Treasuries lose their reason to hold them. Brandon walked through the collateral math, and it’s the part I keep coming back to. A Treasury posted as collateral at