First Mover Market Advantage Archives

How My Spreads Beat 50/50 Odds

October 10, 2026

Hey trader, I priced two vertical spreads in XLP, the consumer staples ETF, on the same two strikes. The one that pays off if XLP falls cost 88 cents. Its bullish twin cost $1.15. Both are in-out vertical spreads. That basically means buying one option and selling another, with the price sitting between the two strikes. If you hold one to expiration, it’s about a 50/50 bet. Without an edge, you’re paying for a guess. I lean on two edges to tip those odds my way. Skew, essentially the volatility gap between the option you buy and the one you sell, can get you in cheaper. A set rule for closing early raises your odds of leaving with a profit. You’ll learn to check whether a vertical spread is priced in your favor before you buy it. You’ll also get the exit rule I use to turn that even bet

Macy’s Options Activity Signals Short Squeeze Potential

October 9, 2026

Hey trader, A big call buy in Macy’s (M) hit the scanner this morning: I want you to notice three things. First, the volume is roughly 3x the open interest. That’s a clear indication of new options hitting the tape. Second, the location shows all the way in the green. That means the trades hit the ask, or, that traders bought those calls. Third, the squeeze bar is nearly full, showing us there is a high amount of shares sold short in this stock. When a stock with high short interest starts to rise, it can cause a cascade of buying as short sellers close their positions by buying back the stock. This trade doesn’t go out far. But it fits with a larger rotation that could be starting out of the semiconductors and into the beaten down names. These calls aren’t too expensive, even sitting at-the-money. So, if you

My XLP Trade Now Risks 4 Cents

October 8, 2026

Hey trader, On Tuesday, I bought a call vertical in XLP, the consumer staples ETF, for 60 cents. Two days later, it only had 4 cents of risk left. I could’ve closed the spread for over a 50% gain. Instead, I rolled my call vertical. Essentially, I sold off the bottom half of the spread and kept the top half. That roll paid me back 56 of my 60 cents. If XLP reaches $84, the half I kept can still deliver a 93% gain. Rolling a call vertical like this lets you skip the choice between grabbing a quick profit and holding out for the full target. You take nearly all your risk off and keep the upside working. But it’s not something you always want to do. There is a time and place for it, and I want to teach you what that is. It started with the money

The Short Squeeze Setup Traders Are Watching

October 6, 2026

Hey trader, Two big call buys in TIC Solutions. Inc (TIC) caught my eye: Compare the open interest to the volume of these transactions and you’ll understand why they stood out. With January expirations, the buyer gave themselves plenty of time for today’s +8% move to continue. TIC carries 15.5% short interest, meaning about 1 out of every 7 shares have been sold short. That creates conditions for rapid buying driven by a short squeeze. The stock only has monthly options. Fortunately, they’re not very expensive. You can pick up those same January $10 calls for around $0.65 or the $12.50 calls for $0.20. This stock’s all-time-high sits around $15. Don’t be surprised if get enough buying to send us through there. If you’re not already subscribed, you can sign up for my free newsletter HERE. Take care, Brandon Chapman, CMT Creator of Ghost Prints Want to learn more about

What Freed Utilities to Jump 2.5%

October 6, 2026

Hey trader, Utilities jumped about 2.5% today with very little help from the news. Most of that move traces back to what happens when a call wall breaks. XLU, the utilities ETF, had been stuck under two call walls at $40 and $40.50. A call wall is basically a strike with a huge pile of call contracts sitting on it. The dealers on the other side of those contracts hedge by selling into strength. Every push toward the wall runs into a seller. Once you know how to read a call wall like that, you can tell whether a rally is about to stall or about to run. You can also spot the walls that look big on the chain and barely matter. Today XLU broke through both of its walls. After it cleared them, that selling got out of the way, and price had room to run. Somebody also

Why I Passed on CLF’s Calls

October 5, 2026

Hey trader, Two metal stocks showed big call buying on the Console this morning. Alcoa had it, and so did CLF. Call buying basically means someone’s betting a stock goes higher. Both looked like trades worth following. I took only one of them. CLF had a huge pile of call contracts sitting at $13, right where it was trading. I call a strike like that a wall. Alcoa had very little in its way up to $50. Checking what sits above a print can keep you from following call buying into a stock with no room to run. The Alcoa print started me down this road, so I’ll begin there. How Alcoa’s Call Buying Handed Me a Target Alcoa’s call buying came in on the November 20 expiration at two strikes, $45 and $50. Each print topped 1,000 contracts. The 5,000 contracts at $45 traded for $2.15. That’s closer to

What Stalled the Mag 7 Rally

October 3, 2026

Hey trader, Friday morning looked like a day to buy. Nvidia was leading, with the rest of the Mag 7 right behind it. I wasn’t sold. I went down the list and pulled up the leaders one at a time. Every one of them was sitting in positive gamma. Positive gamma basically means dealers sell into strength and buy into weakness to keep themselves hedged. Each push higher runs into a seller. Once you can spot that, you’ll know whether a rally has room before you put money into it. The S&P 500 gets a lot of its weight from a few stocks like Nvidia. If they can’t push through, I have a hard time seeing the index go much higher. Meta touched 740 for about a split second today and backed right off. I call levels like that walls, since they’re strikes with a huge pile of option contracts

How Put Buying Can Send a Stock Higher

October 1, 2026

Hey trader, Somebody bought about 20,000 Hertz puts this morning. Someone in my session guessed the put buying was a bet on bankruptcy. It’s a fair guess, since a put is basically a bet that a stock falls. I think this one’s probably a hedge, though. You’ll want to know the difference. A hedge like this can turn a print that looks bearish into a long setup. The dealer who sold those puts shorted Hertz shares right away to stay protected. If Hertz doesn’t fall, the dealer needs less of that protection as expiration gets closer. Buying those shares back can lift the price. Traders call that charm, which is basically how time changes an option’s sensitivity to the stock. Working through that print led me to a trade risking about 20 cents on a call worth $1 if Hertz gets to $3. Before I get to it, you need

Why I NEVER Sell Iron Condors

September 30, 2026

Hey trader, People think it’s safe to sell iron condors. The risk is capped. It also seems cheap to put on, apart from the commissions. I don’t like them. I never sell iron condors. They’re long-run losers. They’re costing you money if you keep selling them. I know that sounds odd coming from me. After all, an iron condor is just a put vertical spread sold below the stock and a call vertical spread sold above it. Those two spreads carry something called negative expectancy. It sounds like a mouthful. It just means you’ll lose money over time if you keep taking the trade. BUYING an iron condor is a different ballgame. That’s one I’m willing to play. Why does a “safe” trade lose money over time? The volatility curve holds the answer. How a Coin Flip Explains Expectancy Expectancy is what a trade makes or loses on average if

In SPY Trades, This Beats the VIX

September 29, 2026

Hey trader, Someone in my session today pointed out that options cost more with the VIX above 14. Vertical spreads don’t work that way. A vertical basically means buying one option and selling another at a different strike against it. Its price comes down to two things: the odds it pays off and skew. Skew is essentially the gap in volatility the market prices into each strike. The bigger that gap, the better the price on the spread. Today the gap was small. A SPY spread I’d normally buy for about 40 cents was going for 52. I passed on it. That extra 12 cents came from flat skew. The VIX level had nothing to do with it. Once you can see which of those two things is moving, you’ll know a spread is overpriced before you pay for it. Here’s how I priced it this morning. Where the VIX

	Today
09.00	Don Kaufman \| Pre-Market Prep \| FREE SESSION 09.20 09.30 Don Kaufman \| Early volatility 09.20 10.30 Jeff Bierman \| Market structure 10.30 11.30 Brandon Chapman \| Ghost Hour 11.30 12.30 Gianni Di Poce \| Macro overview 12.30 13.15 Elizabeth \| Price Action 13.15 14.00
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14.00	Corey Rosenbloom \| Options tactics 14.00 15.00
15.00	Blake Young \| Market wrap 15.00 16.00

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