What Happens When The Bonds Break

https://youtu.be/n8CDtxhNIXE Quadruple witching came and went today. The S&P 500 finished the week dead unchanged. The story sits in the bond market instead. The 10-year yield is parked at 5% and setting up to break higher. I’ll be watching that all weekend. When the bonds break, a long list of other asset classes gets dragged into it. Start with where we’ve been. We’ve traded inside the same volatility box since May 4th. Five months of pinging back and forth. The futures rolled from September to December this week. The new contract sits about 68 points higher, so the box moved up with it. Center of the range now sits near 7550. A selloff into that level next week means nothing to me. A push above 7750 gives a rally real legs. Today handed you another rotation session. Financials opened lower and rallied straight back, and over 80 stocks were trading

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Stand At Sea Level And You See 8 Miles

Stand at sea level and you can see about 8 miles. That’s the horizon. Past it the water curves away and you’ve got nothing, no matter how hard you squint. VIX measures 30 days out. So when somebody asks me where VIX is on a day the tape is getting kicked around, my answer is that VIX don’t work here no more. It’s over the horizon. It’s measuring something you can’t see from where you’re standing, and it’ll sit right there while the risk in front of your face does whatever it wants. What Moves It Correlation. VIX wakes up when the market stops rotating and starts going down together. The semis go, AMD goes, the whole complex goes at once. That is the only thing that gets it off the floor. Which makes rotation the thing holding everything up. Money comes out of big tech, lands in financials, the

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Why Today’s Rally Never Happened

https://youtu.be/N2XfS_D4xWM Blake Young stripped the overnight session out of today’s tape. The S&P 500 moved 0% from the cash open.Every bit of that recovery landed while American traders slept. This wasn’t an audience participation move.Technology ran 2% on the day. The index still finished flat once you measure from the 9:30 candle forward.Blake traced the buying to the dollar. Foreign capital converted euros, yen, and pounds into US equities overnight.The dollar broke out of a double bottom and now targets 100.61. It closed today with the exact same strength it carried yesterday.Equities fall when the dollar climbs. That overnight bid papered over a market still rolling over underneath.Look at the quarter instead of the session. Only communications, healthcare, and energy sit above the S&P 500 average over the last three months.Half the sectors sit below zero. Blake reads that as a temporary pullback, and he’s getting ready for the next

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$2,000 On The Line When We Go Live Now

THE SWITCHBOARD goes live at 2 PM ET, and 1 person watching leaves with $2,000 in cash.  You have to be on the livestream when the winner is announced. If that person isn’t there, we pull another name. I know the afternoon fills up.  This is the 1 hour today that’s worth clearing, because while you’re in the room you’ll see a 6-minute morning that turned into 90.3% over 4 months, all 71 trades on 1 screen. The link below puts you straight in. ===>Put me in the livestream To your success, Don Kaufman

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1 Person Watching Today’s Livestream Walks Away With $2,000

At 2 PM ET today I’m handing 1 person watching the livestream $2,000 in cash.  You have to be watching live when the name gets pulled, and that’s the only rule.  We’ve done this before and we’ve paid every time. The reason I’m paying somebody to be in the room is what goes on the screen.  THE SWITCHBOARD has never been shown in public.  It’s 1 screen that shows the price that’s going to decide the day before the market opens, and the trader who built it spends 6 minutes on it each morning, leaves 1 order sitting at that price, and doesn’t look at a chart again all day. Over the last 4 months that added up to 71 documented trades and 90.3% on a $1,000 base. Every trade goes up today, and so does the arithmetic behind 50% in 90 days, taken straight out of the record. I’ll

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How Market Risk Just Got Bigger

The Fed raised 25 basis points and gave no forward guidance at all. Risk in this market went up after that announcement. One number proves it. The SPX priced a $128 expected move for the entire week. Monday, Tuesday, and Wednesday are already in the books. Friday’s expiration still implies plus or minus $91. Most of the week’s risk now sits inside two sessions. I started tonight’s session in the September S&P 500 futures contract. We dropped right back into the volatility box and tagged 7511 almost spot on. I call 7511 the warm fuzzy spot. Risk goes there to die. The box runs 7350 on the bottom and roughly 7700 on top. The SPX dragged us back to it. Nearly five million contracts traded there today. Tesla traded two and a half million. Nvidia traded three million. Nothing else on the board moves that kind of notional value. Plenty

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(NEW Video): 3 Trade Ideas Before The Fed

It’s still a little difficult to believe. 90% probability of a hike today, and everything going on in Main Street is so far removed from what we’re seeing on Wall Street. Look at oil prices, look at diesel. That’s a shock to the system we probably haven’t even felt yet. I was on with Schwab’s Big 3 this morning with three ideas, so let me walk you through them. There’s a sector that has hit or exceeded the lower edge of its expected move for five consecutive weeks. Count them, five. The option market says it should travel three bucks and it’s gone further than that every single week. That’s some fierce sell side activity, and it’s left statistically wild oversold conditions behind it. I’m a contrarian in there. I’m looking for a brief but violent move back to the upside, and I used a $5 wide call spread to

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How Software Stocks Just Made History

https://youtu.be/R8TrsMTMi3g Gianni Di Poce caught something yesterday that barely registered anywhere else. Software outperformed semiconductors by the greatest margin in history. That happened in a single session. Gianni has been building an overweight allocation into software for months. Yesterday paid him off. He’s already looking at the next rotation, and he’s walking through the whole framework live tomorrow. Wednesday at 2 PM Eastern, Gianni opens the room for free. He shows the four conditions he checks in the Nasdaq every week, the full track record since launch with the losing trades included, and a brand new second way every Tech Timer pays. One attendee leaves with $1,000 cash, drawn live. There’s no replay. 👉 Save my seat for Wednesday at 2 PM Eastern👈 Now here’s what has him watching the Nasdaq this closely. The index has done nothing since mid May. Four months of range, and the Bollinger Bands now

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They Buy Calls And Cause The Squeeze They Predicted

Persistence beats resistance. I hate that line. I hate it more than almost anything. That’s a market technician saying. Because crap goes up, it keeps going up. Because crap goes down, it keeps going down. Until of course it doesn’t. So Why Am I Nervous At This Level Anyway Because I am. I’ve got a position on in Meta against a level it has hit four separate times now, and I don’t mind telling you it makes me nervous. Just not for the reason you think. What I don’t like about trading against a level has nothing to do with what’s on the chart. It has everything to do with who else is looking at the same chart. Say you’ve got a big round number sitting up there, and for Meta that’s 680. A bunch of retail traders and a bunch of proprietary traders pull it up and go, that

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You’re Looking At The Wrong Number On Your Option Chain

Most traders are staring at the right screen and reading the wrong column. They pull up probabilities and read the one for the expiration they’re in. What are the odds this thing finishes in the money on the 18th. Fine.  Except that’s not the trade you’re making. You’re not holding to expiration.  You’re getting out when price touches your number, and those are two completely different questions with two completely different answers. The Two Numbers I’ve got a position on in Meta right now, and it’s sitting around $670 at the open. If I read the expiration column, it tells me one thing. But what I care about is whether price touches $655 or $650 before I’m done, because that’s where I’m out profitable. Probability of touching that level out at expiration? 73%. Probability of getting there this week? About 44%. That second number is the one that matters to

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