Market Correlation is Causation for Concern

"The correlation between the Big Tech stocks and the rest of the S&P 500 is low, compared to history," says a recently published Barclays note. I kind of agree. The big guys are right once in a while. But the note goes on to say that Big Tech/S&P 500 correlation actually spikes when markets sell…

The Triple Witch Returns...With Trillions in Risk to the Markets

Everything’s got an expiration date - milk, bread, bananas… and derivatives. This Friday - day after tomorrow - we’ll see stock options, index options, and index futures worth trillions all expire on the same trading day. It’s called “triple witching,” and if for some reason you’ve never been through one before, you’re in for a…

Here's Why the Selling Is Different This Time

The indexes took a hit today. The S&P, which had been up nicely to new all time highs surrendered to the red at the end of the day. But saying "stocks are down" is like calling the Pacific Ocean a "puddle." It doesn't do anywhere near enough justice to the insane price action we saw…

The Magnificent Seven are Down to the Final Four

The S&P 500 was enjoying a bit of a bounceback today after yesterday's selloff. Good news, right? Well, not so much. What I was looking at toward the close - and in fact over the past few days - is actually not great news for the market. We just keep seeing more and more weakness…

When the Selling Starts, Markets Could Get Wild

The markets can be the ultimate bandwagon sometimes, and that’s got a tendency to be dangerous. It doesn’t take long for one big, definitive sell order… to be followed by tens of millions of others. At the moment, it’s working the other way; the crowd is into just one or two stocks (which we’ve talked…

These “Magnificent 7” Stocks Just Hit Critical Levels

These stocks have been leading the markets higher and lower for months now, to the exclusion of practically everything else - including hard economic data! (Including PCE, which drops tomorrow.) FOMO-stricken investors and traders are bidding them up to (literally) insane levels. There’s really not much else left to buy… and if there was it’d…

What to Do About This One-Stock Stock Market

I can think of 499 stocks that might as well hang it up... Welcome to the S&P 1, where you can buy any stock you want… so long as it’s Nvidia. Buyers only, though - no sellers allowed. I’m only half-joking. Diversification on the S&P 500 is now severely compromised; it’s more concentrated than it’s…

When "Different" Ends Up the Same Way

Google, Amazon, Apple, and Microsoft - together they’re worth more than $10 trillion-with-a-”T.” They account for a bit less than a quarter of the S&P 500 by weight. Incidentally, it’s been more than 50 years since the S&P 500’s top stocks were this concentrated. Well, they’re in real trouble now. All four of those mega-caps…

The Market Is Cracking - Volatility and Bearishness Are Surging

The mainstream narrative today was, “Oh, look - a bounceback rally after a big down day.” But look just a little deeper, pull on the threads, and you find the situation is a lot more alarming than I think a lot of people realize right now. Apple, for one, did not advance today. Not only…

Weekly Wrap: Welcome to the Great Tech Squeeze of 2024

You know it as “Nvidia, the Wall Street darling that for some reason is worth $1.7 trillion.” I know it as “Nvidia: The most dangerous stock in the S&P 500 right now.” NVDA’s valuation is so far out of whack, so divorced from reality that it has become a threat and a symbol of what’s…

Page 1 of 121