Man vs Machines with Jeff Bierman Archives

3 Ways I Protect Myself Before Earnings

November 4, 2026

Hey Trader, This week, a stock I’ve traded dropped $20 on earnings. It’s the reason I hedge stocks before earnings every time. Going into the report, its expected move was just $4. That’s the swing the options market was pricing in. The stock fell 5x further than anyone expected. The company was supposed to earn $1.33 next quarter. Now it expects about 40 cents. Nobody saw that coming. Even inside information on the earnings number wouldn’t have saved you. I’m a guy who’s lost hundreds of thousands around earnings. I never ride a report naked anymore. A few reports like this one take an account from 100 to 75 to 60. That’s usually when people quit. I use three ways to hedge stocks before earnings. I can sell the stock, insure it with a put or buy a straddle. Picking the right one comes down to whether you’re up on

Why I Sold Pepsi While It Kept Climbing

November 2, 2026

Hey Trader, Here’s how I decide when to take profits. My consumer staples climbed 10% to 20% in October. That’s like getting a full year’s return in one month. When I see a move like that, I get out. I made a killing on Pepsi for my Genesis COG members. We’re out of all of those names now. Those stocks are still climbing. I’m out anyway, because the market gives and then it takes. Money managers have been rotating in a panic. Rotation means pulling money out of one sector and piling it into another. They got burned by holding too much tech. Now they’re crowding into staples, and they’ll get burned there too. If you hold a stock that’s gone vertical, you’re standing in that same crowd. Stay too long, and you’ll hand those gains right back. I’ll show you my simple test for when to take profits. You’ll

The Boeing Rule That Cost Me $4,000

October 31, 2026

Hey Trader, Years ago, I worked a trading desk alongside Don Kaufman. That’s where I learned to avoid stocks with lumpy earnings. I was the chief technician there. A lot of the charting tools you trade off today came out of my head. One day, I figured I could trade Boeing. I lost $4,000 in 15 minutes. Everybody on the desk ripped on me. They joked about hauling me out in a straight jacket. I’ll never trade that stock again. It’s the reason I have a rule against stocks with lumpy earnings. Lumpy earnings swing from a profit one quarter to a loss the next. Boeing has done that again and again. A stock’s price rests on what investors expect it to earn. When the earnings never stay consistent, nobody knows how to price it. Anyone who tells you they can is lying. Trade it anyway, and you’re playing with

Stop Buying Right Before A Stock Turns

October 28, 2026

Hey Trader, I get emails all the time from traders who bought at the wrong spot. One of them is down 75 on Meta. If they’d understood the fractal reversal pattern, they never would’ve bought at that level. A fractal reversal pattern helps you time both ends of a trade. It shows you where to get in and where to get out. Without that timing, you end up chasing stocks. Your entries and exits get sloppy. Today I’ll show you how to spot a fractal reversal pattern before you trade. You’ll see which charts it works best on and why you can’t read one alone. The second people hear the word “fractal,” they want to tune out. I’ll keep this simple enough for my 12-year-old daughter to follow. A fractal reversal pattern is a short run of candles that marks a turning point. Those turns sit right where buyers and

Protect Your Account Before Election Day

October 26, 2026

Hey Trader, Brazil just showed what happens when you don’t hedge election risk. Brazilian stocks ripped when Bolsonaro took the early lead. Then the race swung back to Lula. The market got hit hard. Our election is next Tuesday. Nobody here is pricing in an outcome either. Before Tuesday, I’ll show you how I hedge election risk when I can’t predict the outcome. You’ll see what I’m buying, what I’m holding and what I’m watching. That way, one bad outcome won’t cost you years. Right now, buyers keep piling into stocks as if the winner doesn’t matter. I completely disagree. There’s an old saying for what I’m seeing. It’s called whistling past the graveyard. It means acting calm while you’re actually scared or in denial. That’s this market right now. We don’t know how the election turns out. Nobody does. When you can’t predict an outcome, you don’t bet on

What Retail Going All In Tells You

October 24, 2026

Hey Trader, Retail investor sentiment is flashing a warning. Everyday individual traders haven’t held this much stock in nearly 25 years. I’m sitting on 60% cash. I’m on the other side of that crowd on purpose. I call it “opposite George.” It’s a nod to the Seinfeld episode where George does the opposite of his instincts. In trading, that means reading retail investor sentiment in reverse. Sentiment is just how investors feel and how they’ve positioned their money. Right now, retail is fully invested. Meanwhile, the pros are way behind the S&P 500. That leaves retail holding this market up alone. There isn’t enough cash left out there to keep it up. When the crowd is all in, the crowd’s money is already spent. If you’re standing right beside them, you’ll give back gains when it turns. The signal works the other way too. When I hear heavy put buying

How Darvas Timed His Entries And Exits

October 21, 2026

Hey Trader, Back in the 1950s, a ballroom dancer named Nicholas Darvas taught himself to trade. During rehearsals, he’d pull out a piece of paper and draw squares around a stock’s price. He was hunting for staircases. Those squares became the Darvas box strategy. Each box maps where a stock has been consolidating, with a ceiling on top and a floor below. Darvas only traded when price broke out of that box. Once the stock started stalling into its next box, he got out. His logic was simple. Don’t fight the tape. Look for the break. I’m going to walk you through how he traded the Darvas box strategy. Once you see it, you’ll know when to get in and when to get out. I find selling the hardest call in any trade. The box gives you a rule for it. It also keeps you out of the middle, where

Stop Buying Stocks The Machines Are Selling

October 19, 2026

Hey Trader, Trading price channels starts with the slope of the chart. Get it wrong, and you’ll buy stocks the machines are selling. A stock that’s been sliding for weeks can start to look like a bargain. You buy it and wait for the bounce. Meanwhile, the algorithms keep selling. On that chart, you’re the only buyer. Corey Rosenbloom, Gianni Di Poce and I never buy downtrends. We don’t short uptrends either. We let the chart’s slope pick our direction first. That’s the first rule of trading price channels. A price channel is two parallel lines drawn around a stock’s price. Resistance sits on top, with support on the bottom. Every stock sits in one of three channels. It’s either climbing, falling or moving sideways. The machines move prices on a slope and an order flow. Trade without understanding channels, and you’re at a tremendous disadvantage. Each channel tells you

What I Do When RSI Hits 80

October 17, 2026

Hey Trader, A stock that won’t stop climbing is hard to ignore. Every green day makes it look safer to own. You watch it run for two weeks. Then you finally buy when RSI hits 80, right near the top. I have watched this play out for 39 years. On the runs I’m tracking now, the institutions are getting out. They’ll leave retail traders sucking on lemons when the stock cycles back down. Make one wrong turn up there, and $14 a share can be gone. One number warns you before that happens. It’s the Relative Strength Index, or RSI. RSI measures how stretched a stock’s recent run has gotten. It runs on a scale from 0 to 100. Once it pushes toward 80, buying is statistically stupid. If you worked for me and bought up there, I’d fire you. When RSI hits 80, I stop buying. On my own

Why Bank Of America Isn’t Cheap Yet

October 14, 2026

Hey Trader, A stock trading at a 5x earnings multiple sounds cheap. A stock at 10x sounds reasonable. One at 20x sounds expensive. None of those numbers mean anything on their own. That earnings multiple tells you what you pay for every $1 a company earns in a year. I’ve been a Wall Street analyst since I came out of my mommy’s womb. I make my money finding inefficiencies in valuation. I’ve watched people get burned on this over and over. They see a low number and assume they’ve found a bargain. Some stocks are cheap for a reason. Others aren’t cheap at all once you compare them to the right group. I’ll show you how to tell the difference before you put a dollar in. Bank of America is a perfect example. I nicknamed it Flat Bread today, because bread means money and its revenue came in flat. Its

	Today
09.00	Don Kaufman \| Pre-Market Prep \| FREE SESSION 09.20 09.30 Don Kaufman \| Early volatility 09.20 10.30 Jeff Bierman \| Market structure 10.30 11.30 Brandon Chapman \| Ghost Hour 11.30 12.30 Gianni Di Poce \| Macro overview 12.30 13.15 Elizabeth \| Price Action 13.15 14.00
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14.00	Corey Rosenbloom \| Options tactics 14.00 15.00
15.00	Blake Young \| Market wrap 15.00 16.00

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