Hey trader, Football season kicks off in just under two weeks. I normally avoid sports analogies, though this one feels like the right moment. It gives us a chance to celebrate the season and talk about risk management at the same time. Picture two teams lined up for a kickoff. The kicking team lines up in a row, unthreatened, focused only on driving the ball as far downfield as possible. The receiving team spreads out wide. They try to cover as much field as they can without knowing exactly where the ball will land. Once the ball crosses midfield, the receiving team is often defending more than 2,500 square yards. And that’s where the lesson lies. Only two players stand between the 20 yard line and the goal line. For the receiving side to gain yardage and have a shot at scoring, they have to reverse the ball’s direction across

Hey Trader, The U.S. has now been in conflict with Iran for over five months. Every time a “deal” gets announced, oil prices fall. Every time a ceasefire or pause breaks down, oil prices climb. You might be confused and wondering a few things, like I am. Why does anyone believe a deal is viable when it looks like nothing more than rhetoric, or worse, manipulation of the financial markets? Why would Iran even consider going back to the table when every time they have tried, they get bombed again? Why does the U.S. keep trying when Iran won’t make the concessions it demands? There are a lot of questions right now that don’t have answers. Some of them may never get one. Since I love analogies, let me float one your way. This “deal,” the Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), and the negotiations around it remind me of a prank